China and Russia collaborate in global spread of surveillance states

TBILISI, Georgia — It was a rare instance of a senior Chinese official speaking with unusual candor: On July 2, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told European Union top diplomat Kaja Kallas that he does not want to see Russia lose the war in Ukraine.

The remark was first reported by the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post, and later picked up by CNN and other outlets. Wang reportedly expressed concern that if Russia were defeated, the U.S. would shift its full attention to China.

Russia is China’s only major-power partner in countering Washington. Beijing cannot afford a weakened Russia if it hopes to replace the U.S.-led global order with one centered on itself.

Compared with China, Russia possesses greater capabilities to undermine democratic societies and inflame internal divisions through sabotage, espionage and information warfare — tactics it has employed consistently since the Soviet Union’s founding following the Russian Revolution in the 1920s.

« Russia’s capacity for covert operations has remained robust since the breakup of the Soviet Union and continues to pose a serious threat, even to American society, » a U.S. intelligence source said.

China, by contrast, has poured resources into advanced technology, creating the world’s most sophisticated digital surveillance state and is now one of the top exporters of such systems.

When Russia’s covert operations are paired with China’s digital surveillance power, the threat to democracy is significantly amplified. The situation in Georgia serves as a case in point.

In 2008, the former Soviet republic was invaded by Russia, which still occupies about 20% of its territory. While roughly 80% of the Georgian population supports joining the EU, the ruling Georgian Dream party has grown increasingly anti-Western and is aligning more closely with Russia, driven in part by Moscow’s growing political penetration of the country, which it has achieved through financial influence, intimidation and disinformation.

According to some Georgian lawmakers and former senior officials, the Kremlin is deepening its influence over senior leadership through its association with billionaire former prime minister Bidzina Ivanishvili, a dominant figure in the nation’s political landscape. Concurrently, it is orchestrating widespread information operations aimed at stoking anti-Western sentiment.

Meanwhile, China’s presence is quietly expanding. When I visited the Georgian capital of Tbilisi in late June, the city looked noticeably different from my trip nine months earlier — surveillance cameras had been installed in many prominent locations. They were especially visible near the parliament and along major streets. Surveillance cameras have increased rapidly since last fall, with over 2,000 already installed in Tbilisi, according to one report.

Local political analysts and other experts point to China as a key driver behind the sharp increase in surveillance cameras. In late December, Chinese Ambassador to Georgia Zhou Qian met with then-Deputy Prime Minister and Internal Affairs Minister Vakhtang Gomelauri and agreed to deepen cooperation between their law enforcement and police agencies. In effect, this suggests that China is assisting Georgian authorities in suppressing anti-government activities.

A survey by the Georgian nongovernmental organization Civic IDEA found that the government spent 2 million lari ($740,000) last year to procure Chinese surveillance cameras, more than 13 times the amount spent the previous year. Between 70% and 80% of the cameras installed by government entities are Chinese-made, a recent news report indicates.

The pro-Russian Georgian Dream party claimed victory in last October’s parliamentary elections, despite widespread allegations of electoral fraud. Opposition parties have rejected the results, and citizens have responded with sporadic protests.

Security personnel initially used batons and tear gas as their main tools to suppress protests and rallies, but with the introduction of the Chinese surveillance system, they have also begun adopting Beijing’s methods for cracking down on dissidents.

This year, security authorities have stepped up their use of surveillance camera footage to identify protesters and intimidate them on an individual basis, according to local experts and lawmakers. One protest participant was reportedly fined 5,000 lari — more than twice the average monthly wage, based on the newly enacted law.

« Repression by the authorities has been intensifying, » said Anna Dolidze, founder and chairwoman of the opposition party For the People. « Opposition leaders have been arrested one after another.

« If this continues, Georgia will become a Russian satellite state, like Belarus. »

The extent to which China and Russia are coordinating over Georgia remains unclear. However, both pursue a similar strategy: weakening democracy by expanding their influence in geopolitically significant regions such as Central and Eastern Europe, former Soviet republics and key Global South countries.

At their summit on May 8, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin reaffirmed their commitment to work more closely to reshape the U.S.-led global order. This has sparked fears that as Chinese surveillance systems proliferate globally, they may be combined with Russia’s covert networks, further reinforcing authoritarian regimes.

In fact, the National Endowment for Democracy, a U.S. nonprofit organization, reported in February that more than 80 countries have adopted Chinese surveillance systems powered by artificial intelligence.

Despite warming ties, deep distrust persists between China and Russia, which fought a border war in the late 1960s. As the gap in national power continues to widen, Moscow is likely to become increasingly wary of Beijing. Even so, the example of Georgia shows that their coordinated efforts to undermine democracy should not be underestimated.