How eroding public support could make Trump even more aggressive

TOKYO — In poker, players who believe they hold a strong hand usually stay quiet and play on, aiming to raise the stakes and extract more money from their opponents.

But U.S. President Donald Trump, who often touts his dealmaking prowess and casts himself as a poker expert, has been acting in ways that defy this logic. His impatience for a quick tariff deal with China is a prime example.

On the surface, the deal announced on Monday appears to be a balanced compromise. In reality, it marks a significant climbdown for Trump, involving sharp reductions to previously imposed tariffs. As part of a 90-day truce, both countries agreed to roll back their respective rates by 115 percentage points: The U.S. will cut duties on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, while China will reduce tariffs on American goods from 125% to 10%.

Trump had long vowed to exert unparalleled pressure on Beijing to dismantle what he called an « unfair » trade regime. Yet he pulled back his most potent card, even though China offered no written commitment to structural reforms. In poker terms, Trump tipped his weak hand.

He might have had little choice, given the mounting headwinds he faces. According to the polling average compiled by U.S. media company RealClearPolitics, his approval rating stood at just 46% at the 100-day mark of his presidency. Over the nearly half-century, he is the only U.S. president to have fallen below the 50% threshold so early in office. While support among Republican voters remains solid, independents are beginning to drift away.

A major source of the turbulence is his underperforming economic agenda. In early April, Trump announced a sweeping set of « reciprocal » tariffs targeting multiple countries. But the move spooked financial markets, prompting the administration to backtrack 13 hours later by offering a 90-day grace period. Key electronic goods, including smartphones, were also temporarily exempted from the tariffs.

In a separate episode, Trump called for the resignation of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, frustrated by the Fed’s resistance to lowering interest rates as aggressively as he wanted. But facing a sharp decline in stock prices, Trump ultimately backed down from the demand.

In light of these developments, some policymakers in Europe and Japan have begun to express cautious optimism. The weakening economic sentiment in the U.S., combined with sharp price declines and other warning signs from financial markets, might have heightened Trump’s awareness of the risks associated with a prolonged tariff war. Looking ahead, they hope he will be compelled to gradually moderate both his rhetoric and his actions.

The latest U.S.-China tariff agreement is likely to reinforce optimism that Trump may be shifting toward a more pragmatic approach.

However, the belief that mounting political and economic pressure will temper Trump’s combative style could be misguided. His overriding priority remains rallying his core supporters — fervent backers of his « America First » agenda — and securing a decisive victory in next year’s midterm elections.

If he is forced to scale back his signature tariff offensive, he is likely to double down on his hardline stance in other areas. With the stakes high in the midterm elections, alienating his loyal base is a risk he is unwilling to take.

The central question is whether the U.S. can extract enough concessions from China during the next 90 days of negotiations for Trump to claim a « victory. » But the road ahead is anything but smooth. While the tariff war is certain to take a toll on China’s economy, President Xi Jinping and his administration appear confident that the country is better positioned to endure the pain.

Unlike Trump, Xi faces no electoral pressures, and in China, the government, central bank and state-owned enterprises all operate in lockstep with his directives.

« If the situation remains unchanged, Chinese-made household goods, clothing and toys will start to disappear from U.S. store shelves, fueling consumer frustration, » said a Chinese political analyst familiar with Beijing’s U.S. strategy, speaking before the latest U.S.-China tariff deal was announced. « While the tariff war is undoubtedly challenging for China, it poses greater political risks for Trump.

« The Chinese government believes it holds the upper hand in this game of chicken. »

If a compromise is reached and a full-blown tariff war is averted, it would be a welcome development for the global economy. However, such an outcome is unlikely to soften Trump’s confrontational stance. Should he conclude that the China tariffs have failed to achieve his objectives, it becomes more likely that he will escalate bold and potentially disruptive policies in other areas, domestic and international, to keep his base energized.

At home, Trump is already ramping up pressure on groups and institutions he views as ideological adversaries. A notable example is his targeting of elite universities like Harvard and Columbia, which he considers liberal strongholds. Citing what he calls their failure to adequately address « antisemitic activity » on campus, Trump has taken steps to revoke federal research grants and other funding.

In foreign policy, Trump is expected to intensify his pursuit of high-profile achievements. If successful, these efforts could benefit the broader international community. However, if they fail, his impatience and erratic policymaking may become even more pronounced.

Trump’s top diplomatic priority is brokering a ceasefire in Ukraine, but progress remains stalled due to the wide gulf between Russia and Ukraine. If negotiations fail to yield concrete results, he may opt to publicly criticize both sides and withdraw from the mediation process. Such a move could result in the suspension of U.S. military aid to Ukraine, further destabilizing an already volatile situation.

If Trump abandons his ceasefire efforts, he is likely to shift his focus to other high-stakes issues — most notably, the Iran nuclear talks or the North Korea situation. He may attempt to pressure Tehran into dismantling or halting its nuclear program, and if no concessions are made, he could escalate military threats.

People tend to believe in the outcomes they desire. However, assuming that a desperate Trump will soften his position is a risky bet. A wiser strategy would be to brace for the possibility that, when cornered, he may take unpredictable — and potentially destabilizing — actions.