Trump-driven disorder rattles emerging economies
Countries reel from misjudging risks of new US president
Hiroyuki AKITA, Nikkei commentator
6 mai 2025
TOKYO — Until late 2024, many major emerging economies viewed Donald Trump’s impending return to the U.S. presidency favorably. They believed that by accepting economic « deals, » they could foster a strong relationship with a second Trump administration — without facing significant pressure on human rights or other sensitive issues.
A November 2024 poll by the European Council on Foreign Relations, conducted after Trump’s election victory, found that emerging countries broadly welcomed his return.
In India, 84% of respondents described Trump’s election as « a good thing, » while 61% shared that view in Saudi Arabia. Likewise, in Indonesia, South Africa, Turkey and Brazil, positive opinions consistently outnumbered negative ones.
A senior Indian official echoed this sentiment in a conversation with Nikkei in New Delhi in December, saying Trump’s return is advantageous for India because the new president is unlikely to interfere in the country’s domestic affairs over human rights and recognizes its strategic importance.
However, that initial optimism is now fading. The disruption Trump is unleashing on the global stage has far exceeded what emerging economies anticipated, with his « America First » diplomacy proving much more assertive than during his first term.
From March 17 to 19, the Raisina Dialogue, an annual forum on international affairs, was held in New Delhi. At a breakout session featuring prominent thinkers from emerging economies across Asia and the Middle East, concerns about Trump’s return to power surfaced repeatedly.
« There’s a new sheriff in town, and the new sheriff in town wants to do things his way, » said Sunjoy Joshi, chairman of India’s Observer Research Foundation think tank. « Well, [Trump is] trying to do a big reset, and a lot of things which are going to be shaken around in the process of this reset. »
Regarding Trump’s reported interest in acquiring Greenland, a territory of Denmark, and even Canada, a former Indonesian official expressed bewilderment, saying the U.S. now appears to harbor « territorial ambition. » The shift, the official noted, « is different from Trump 1.0, and for us, this is quite, quite puzzling. »
The so-called Global South, a diverse group of emerging and developing countries, varies widely in terms of national power and ambitions and is far from a unified bloc. However, major emerging nations within the Group of 20, such as India, Indonesia, Brazil, South Africa, Saudi Arabia and Mexico, broadly share a common aspiration.
Their shared goal is to reshape the international order, which has been dominated by the U.S. and Europe since World War II, and to create a system that more fully reflects their voices. In short, they seek to realize a truly multipolar world.
While dissatisfaction among emerging nations with the U.S.- and Europe-centric system is not new, their growing influence has transformed long-standing frustration into outright anger.
One frequent source of frustration is the composition of the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council. Of the five seats, three are held by leading Western powers — the U.S., the U.K. and France. A South African official voiced indignation, remarking that despite the rising influence of the Global South, this is not reflected in the council’s structure, which he deemed unfair.
From this perspective, many emerging countries initially saw Trump’s return as an opportunity. Unlike his predecessor, Joe Biden, who championed summits for democracy and remained firmly committed to a U.S.-led international order, Trump, with his singular focus on national interests, was seen as more likely to facilitate a shift toward a multipolar world.
However, emerging nations miscalculated, underestimating Trump’s threat to their vision. His extreme actions now threaten to plunge them into chaos, rather than paving the way for multipolarity.
Undoubtedly, their gravest misjudgment has been the U.S. imposition of « reciprocal » tariffs. In early February, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Washington and pledged to increase imports of U.S. energy. Despite this, India was hit with a 26% tariff. Similarly, Indonesia and Vietnam faced crippling levies of 32% and 46%, respectively.
That said, Trump may choose to ease tariff pressures, mindful of the potential impact his policy could have on the financial markets. Some countries might even succeed in negotiating exemptions or reductions with Washington.
However, such moves would not provide a fundamental solution. If a tariff war dampens the global economy, it could significantly affect the prospects of emerging economies. On April 22, the International Monetary Fund lowered its global growth forecast for this year by 0.5 percentage points from its January estimate, bringing it down to 2.8%.
Dino Patti Djalal, former Indonesian ambassador to the U.S., emphasized the potentially severe repercussions of Trump’s tariff agenda on the global economy. « For Indonesia, the biggest threat posed by the Trump administration is high tariffs, » he said. « The worst-case scenario for us is that the tariff war between major countries heats up and the global economy cools down. »
In the medium term, Trump’s security policy could also jeopardize the growth of emerging countries. In his eagerness to secure a ceasefire in Ukraine, Trump may pursue an agreement with terms favorable to Russia. Should that occur, the risk of a renewed Russian invasion of Ukraine would remain high. In the worst-case scenario, food and energy crises could flare up once more, severely impacting emerging and developing countries.
In an effort to mitigate these risks, emerging economies are moving swiftly to strengthen ties with China as well as other major countries. Earlier in April, Indonesia held its first-ever « two-plus-two » dialogue with China, bringing together their foreign and defense ministers. Malaysia and Cambodia also plan to establish similar strategic frameworks for talks with Beijing.
Following Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, emerging nations seemed poised to establish themselves as a « third pole, » independent of both the West and the China-Russia bloc. However, the unexpected turbulence caused by Trump’s policies has unsettled these prospects, and emerging countries are likely to remain preoccupied with protecting their own interests rather than building their own « pole » for the time being.