{"id":10387,"date":"2018-06-04T10:53:38","date_gmt":"2018-06-04T09:53:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/?p=10387"},"modified":"2018-07-25T10:42:13","modified_gmt":"2018-07-25T09:42:13","slug":"negotiations-in-italy-push-euro-to-fore-the-last-place-europe-wants-it","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/negotiations-in-italy-push-euro-to-fore-the-last-place-europe-wants-it\/","title":{"rendered":"Negotiations in Italy Push Euro to Fore, the Last Place Europe Wants It"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"css-18sbwfn\">\n<div class=\"css-1h6whtw\">\n<p>May 29, 2018<\/p>\n<p>Steven Erlanger, The New York Times<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">LISBON \u2014 Through more than two months of tough negotiations to form a government in Italy after inconclusive March elections, global financial markets remained relatively calm. Italy\u2019s uncertainties seemed contained to Italy, and Europe\u2019s economy kept growing.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">That changed this week when Italy\u2019s president, Sergio Mattarella, effectively blocked two populist parties from forming a government. He judged that a crucial member of their proposed cabinet was intent on having Italy abandon the euro, though they had not explicitly campaigned on that issue.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">In doing so, Mr. Mattarella may have laid the groundwork for a new election, one that amounts to a referendum on the euro. The European Union and financial markets reacted with dread. On Tuesday,\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2018\/05\/29\/business\/italy-markets-stocks-bonds.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the Dow plunged almost 400 points<\/a>, the value of the euro plummeted and the cost of borrowing for Italy shot up.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">For the European Union, another Italian election would be terrifically bad timing.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, a linchpin of the bloc, is weakened; she needed six months to form a government after a rough election of her own last year that was marked by a far-right, populist surge.\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2018\/05\/25\/world\/europe\/spain-rajoy-corruption.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Spain\u2019s government could face a no-confidence vote<\/a>\u00a0as early as this week and possible new elections as well.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-14jsv4e\"><\/aside>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-18sbwfn\">\n<div class=\"css-1h6whtw\">\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">However unlikely an Italian withdrawal from the eurozone may be, the mere prospect is more dangerous to the future of the European Union than the bailout of Greece, whose economy is dwarfed by Italy\u2019s; Britain&rsquo;s vote to leave the bloc; or the squabbles over the rule of law with Hungary and Poland.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">Italy is a founding member of both the European Union and the euro and the bloc\u2019s fourth-largest economy, and psychology counts.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">After all, it was Brussels that warned Greece in 2011 that a proposed referendum on its bailout and the euro would actually be a referendum on membership in the European Union itself. That was enough to cause Greece to back down. It did so again four years later.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-14jsv4e\"><\/aside>\n<\/div>\n<figure class=\"css-1ardp2d e1a8i6eb0\" role=\"group\" aria-label=\"media\">\n<div class=\"css-1xdhyk6 e1vv25i80\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"css-1m50asq\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2018\/05\/30\/world\/30Euro-italy2\/merlin_138216237_27c685aa-d5ee-42c9-a7fc-6c045262eb72-articleLarge.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp&amp;disable=upscale\" sizes=\"((min-width: 600px) and (max-width: 1004px)) 84vw, (min-width: 1005px) 60vw, 100vw\" srcset=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2018\/05\/30\/world\/30Euro-italy2\/merlin_138216237_27c685aa-d5ee-42c9-a7fc-6c045262eb72-articleLarge.jpg?quality=90&amp;auto=webp 600w,https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2018\/05\/30\/world\/30Euro-italy2\/merlin_138216237_27c685aa-d5ee-42c9-a7fc-6c045262eb72-jumbo.jpg?quality=90&amp;auto=webp 1024w,https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2018\/05\/30\/world\/30Euro-italy2\/merlin_138216237_27c685aa-d5ee-42c9-a7fc-6c045262eb72-superJumbo.jpg?quality=90&amp;auto=webp 2048w\" alt=\"\" \/><\/div><figcaption class=\"css-1wtlzrm e3zkro30\"><span class=\"css-fko7t5 e1olku6u0\">Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, left, remains weakened after needing six months to form a government.<\/span><span class=\"css-vg01wm e18m0s9i0\"><span class=\"css-1ly73wi e1afaoz0\">Credit<\/span>Tobias Schwarz\/Agence France-Presse \u2014 Getty Images<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<div class=\"css-18sbwfn\">\n<div class=\"css-1h6whtw\">\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">But the common currency is not without its problems. The European Union plunged into the euro without having either the economic institutions to fully manage it or full political integration. Member states gave up their authority over monetary policy, often to deleterious effect at home.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-14jsv4e\"><\/aside>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-18sbwfn\">\n<div class=\"css-1h6whtw\">\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">Today, not only will the issue of sovereignty not go away, it keeps roaring back with a vengeance, just when populism in Europe\u2019s core countries seemed to have been kept at bay.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">After the shock of Britain\u2019s vote in 2016 to leave the European Union, the bloc seemed unexpectedly steady. Italy had a pro-Europe government for several years. Spain and Portugal were growing again. France\u2019s anti-Europe presidential candidate, Marine Le Pen, was defeated. Even the populist Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras in Greece was grudgingly holding the line on spending in order to stay in the eurozone.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">But the turmoil in Italy makes clear that anti-European populism has not gone away, and that the euro is in the cross hairs.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">Mr. Mattarella has turned to a former International Monetary Fund official to be a caretaker prime minister and form a government. But even he seemed to have hit a wall late Tuesday evening, making the prospect of another election \u2014 as early as July or September \u2014 more likely.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">Matteo Salvini, the fiery leader of the League, the populist party that is strong in Italy\u2019s north, has made opposition to Brussels, and occasionally the euro, a standard in his campaign speeches.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">His putative coalition partner, Luigi Di Maio, leader of the populist Five Star Movement, has been sharply critical of Brussels, but has lately rejected a referendum on the euro, despite having previously floated the idea.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-14jsv4e\"><\/aside>\n<\/div>\n<figure class=\"css-1ardp2d e1a8i6eb0\" role=\"group\" aria-label=\"media\">\n<div class=\"css-1xdhyk6 e1vv25i80\">\n<div class=\"css-zjzyr8\">\n<div><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"css-1h6w7uo e1t57l6r0\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2018\/05\/30\/world\/30Euro-italy3\/merlin_137301651_2107eb6b-2edd-4400-b126-c9f39d996a89-superJumbo.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp&amp;disable=upscale\" sizes=\"((min-width: 600px) and (max-width: 1004px)) 84vw, (min-width: 1005px) 60vw, 100vw\" alt=\"\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"css-1wtlzrm e3zkro30\"><span class=\"css-fko7t5 e1olku6u0\">Pensioners demonstrating in Athens last month. In 2011 Brussels warned Greece that a referendum on its bailout and the euro would amount to a vote on E.U. membership. Greece backed down.<\/span><span class=\"css-vg01wm e18m0s9i0\"><span class=\"css-1ly73wi e1afaoz0\">Credit<\/span>Angelos Tzortzinis\/Agence France-Presse \u2014 Getty Images<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<div class=\"css-18sbwfn\">\n<div class=\"css-1h6whtw\">\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">Mr. Mattarella, moderate and pro-Europe, was clearly skeptical of their intentions, and he vetoed Mr. Salvini\u2019s pick of an economy minister with openly anti-euro views, in the name of economic stability.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-14jsv4e\"><\/aside>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-18sbwfn\">\n<div class=\"css-1h6whtw\">\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">In doing so, Mr. Mattarella has given Italians, exceptionally, the same option built into the French election system \u2014 two rounds of voting \u2014 the first to vote your heart, and the second to vote your head. In France, Ms. Le Pen did well in the first round of presidential voting last year; she was soundly defeated in the final round.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">Mr. Mattarella is gambling that Italians may do the same, if the populist parties can be made to surrender their ambiguity on the euro \u2014 an issue they skirted through the Italian campaign.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">As of November,\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"http:\/\/ec.europa.eu\/commfrontoffice\/publicopinion\/index.cfm\/Chart\/getChart\/chartType\/gridChart\/\/themeKy\/29\/groupKy\/183\/savFile\/118\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">a poll by the European Commission<\/a>, the bloc\u2019s bureaucracy, showed that nearly 59 percent of Italians preferred European economic and monetary union with a single currency, the euro, while 30 percent were opposed.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">The risks of leaving the euro have always been a reason Italy has stayed in. But the country has not done well with the euro, by some measures, and so the question now is whether a public frustrated by two decades of stagnation is ready to take a gamble of its own and bolt.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">As demonstrated by the Brexit vote, which numerous analyses showed would not be good for Britain\u2019s health, economic logic does not always prevail.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">Like Ms. Le Pen, Mr. Salvini may discover after a public debate that despite anger at Brussels over migration and the problems of the euro, Italians, like the French and the Greeks, are afraid to leave it.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-14jsv4e\"><\/aside>\n<\/div>\n<figure class=\"css-1ardp2d e1a8i6eb0\" role=\"group\" aria-label=\"media\">\n<div class=\"css-1xdhyk6 e1vv25i80\">\n<div class=\"css-zjzyr8\">\n<div><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"css-1h6w7uo e1t57l6r0\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2018\/05\/30\/world\/30Euro-italy4\/merlin_131379250_22436068-0f4f-4eae-bbe2-bcd3b3d6e64d-superJumbo.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp&amp;disable=upscale\" sizes=\"((min-width: 600px) and (max-width: 1004px)) 84vw, (min-width: 1005px) 60vw, 100vw\" alt=\"\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"css-1wtlzrm e3zkro30\"><span class=\"css-fko7t5 e1olku6u0\">Tourists at the Trevi Fountain in Rome. Italy today accounts for 15.4 percent of the eurozone\u2019s gross domestic product and 23.4 percent of the bloc\u2019s public debt.<\/span><span class=\"css-vg01wm e18m0s9i0\"><span class=\"css-1ly73wi e1afaoz0\">Credit<\/span>Nadia Shira Cohen for The New York Times<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<div class=\"css-18sbwfn\">\n<div class=\"css-1h6whtw\">\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">But Mr. Salvini has also proved himself adept at playing populist passions and has again made\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2018\/03\/04\/world\/europe\/italy-election.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">opposition to the euro<\/a>\u00a0and its \u201celite\u201d supporters central to his politics.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">Many analysts believe that Mr. Salvini, whose League has risen in the polls, will do well in a future election, and some think he sabotaged this coalition government to get to new elections.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">He is expected to use Mr. Mattarella\u2019s attempted appointment of a technocratic \u2014 if temporary \u2014 prime minister to reinforce the League\u2019s anti-elitist message and portray himself as standing up against anti-democratic forces beholden to Brussels, Berlin and the bankers.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">The euro may have originally been a project of the political elite, and it may indeed benefit Germany, but the consequences of leaving it would be big. Those would be likely to include a devalued Italian currency that would savage Italian savings accounts overnight and increase the country\u2019s already large burden of debt.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">That is one reason Mr. Mattarella argued that any decision to leave the euro should come only after a major public debate, not by stealth.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">Then there is the potential damage to the European Union itself. The bloc has moved since the Greek crisis to create backstops for the euro, so the currency would almost surely survive an Italian exit and manage the economic contagion. But the damage to the idea of Europe would be severe.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-14jsv4e\"><\/aside>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-18sbwfn\">\n<div class=\"css-1h6whtw\">\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">Italy\u2019s confusion about its political and economic future \u2014 and its already large stock of nonperforming loans \u2014 are more reasons Germany will continue to refuse to mutualize eurozone debt and provide bank deposit guarantees across the eurozone.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-14jsv4e\"><\/aside>\n<\/div>\n<figure class=\"css-1ardp2d e1a8i6eb0\" role=\"group\" aria-label=\"media\">\n<div class=\"css-1xdhyk6 e1vv25i80\">\n<div class=\"css-zjzyr8\">\n<div><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"css-1h6w7uo e1t57l6r0\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2018\/05\/30\/world\/30Euro-italy5\/30Euro-italy5-superJumbo-v2.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp&amp;disable=upscale\" sizes=\"((min-width: 600px) and (max-width: 1004px)) 84vw, (min-width: 1005px) 60vw, 100vw\" alt=\"\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"css-1wtlzrm e3zkro30\"><span class=\"css-fko7t5 e1olku6u0\">Matteo Salvini, center, the leader of the League, the populist party that is strong in Italy\u2019s north, has made opposition to Brussels, and occasionally the euro, a standard in his campaign speeches.<\/span><span class=\"css-vg01wm e18m0s9i0\"><span class=\"css-1ly73wi e1afaoz0\">Credit<\/span>Tony Gentile\/Reuters<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<div class=\"css-18sbwfn\">\n<div class=\"css-1h6whtw\">\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">As Holger Schmieding, chief economist of Berenberg, an investment bank, points out, \u201cSize matters.\u201d Italy today accounts for 15.4 percent of the eurozone\u2019s gross domestic product and 23.4 percent of the bloc\u2019s public debt.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">By comparison, he said, at the start of the Greek crisis in 2009, Greece contributed only 2.6 percent of the eurozone\u2019s gross domestic product and today accounts for only 3.3 percent of eurozone public debt.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">Italy\u2019s cumulative debt is more than 130 percent of gross domestic product, more than twice the eurozone\u2019s requirements, and it is denominated in euros. Having to repay that debt in a devalued currency would be a major struggle and would badly harm Italian savers and investors, who hold most of it.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">The Italian crisis also has other implications, said Ian Lesser, vice president for foreign policy at the German Marshall Fund and head of its Brussels office.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">\u201cThe political debate in Italy has taken on an increasingly critical tone toward Germany, speaking directly to Italian anxiety over German power in Europe,\u201d Mr. Lesser noted. That anxiety is shared widely, not just in Greece but in other populist-run states like Hungary and Poland.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-14jsv4e\"><\/aside>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-18sbwfn\">\n<div class=\"css-1h6whtw\">\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">And a prospective populist government \u201cis not only deeply anti-E.U. but with a lot of sympathy toward Russia and without traditional Atlanticist instincts,\u201d Mr. Lesser said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">Italy is a key member of NATO and has important naval and air bases for Middle East operations. \u201cIt threatens key elements of continuity in Italian politics, in both the European and trans-Atlantic sphere,\u201d Mr. Lesser said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">European Union arrogance could also play an important political role.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">On Tuesday, the European Commissioner for the budget, G\u00fcnther H. Oettinger, a German, told the broadcaster Deutsche Welle that the markets and a \u201cdarkened outlook\u201d would teach the Italians to vote for the right thing.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">They may yet do so, but it\u2019s impolitic to say so, especially for a Brussels-based German.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/bla.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-10388\" src=\"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/bla.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"760\" height=\"791\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/bla.png 760w, https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/bla-288x300.png 288w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 706px) 89vw, (max-width: 767px) 82vw, 740px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-1xzfkia\">\n<div class=\"SandboxRoot env-bp-350\" data-twitter-event-id=\"0\">\n<div class=\"resize-sensor\">\n<div class=\"resize-sensor-shrink\">\n<div><span style=\"font-size: 1rem;\">One of the first to point out the offense was Mr. Di Maio himself, who in his own message on Twitter called the remark \u201cabsurd.\u201d<\/span><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><span style=\"font-size: 1rem;\">\u201cThese people treat Italy like a summer colony where they come to vacation,\u201d Mr. Di Maio wrote. \u201cBut in a few months a government of change will be born and Europe will finally respect us.\u201d<\/span><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div><a href=\"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/bla2.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-10389\" src=\"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/bla2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"755\" height=\"377\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/bla2.png 755w, https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/bla2-300x150.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 706px) 89vw, (max-width: 767px) 82vw, 740px\" \/><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>May 29, 2018 Steven Erlanger, The New York Times LISBON \u2014 Through more than two months of tough negotiations to form a government in Italy after inconclusive March elections, global<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":10385,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[23,1],"tags":[25],"class_list":["post-10387","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-room","category-non-classe","tag-25"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10387","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10387"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10387\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10385"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10387"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10387"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10387"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}