{"id":10393,"date":"2018-06-04T11:22:31","date_gmt":"2018-06-04T10:22:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/?p=10393"},"modified":"2018-07-25T10:43:45","modified_gmt":"2018-07-25T09:43:45","slug":"a-day-of-peril-for-the-e-u-threats-emerge-from-the-u-s-and-within","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/a-day-of-peril-for-the-e-u-threats-emerge-from-the-u-s-and-within\/","title":{"rendered":"A Day of Peril for the E.U.: Threats Emerge From the U.S. and Within"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>1 June 2018<\/p>\n<div class=\"css-18sbwfn\">\n<div class=\"css-1h6whtw\">\n<p>Steven Erlanger, The New York Times<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">First, Italy swore in a euroskeptic government that has worried the financial markets. Then a pro-Europe government in Spain suddenly collapsed, even as the bloc\u2019s leaders were contending with trade tariffs imposed by President Trump.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">It was quite a Friday for Brussels, the capital of the European Union. On the same\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2018\/06\/01\/world\/europe\/germany-zoo-escape.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fworld&amp;action=click&amp;contentCollection=world&amp;region=stream&amp;module=stream_unit&amp;version=latest&amp;contentPlacement=1&amp;pgtype=sectionfront\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">day wild animals were reported missing at a zoo<\/a>\u00a0in Germany, stirring anxiety, Europe itself seemed to be wandering through a forest of global politics.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">The political uncertainty in Europe\u2019s south, combined with yet another humiliation from Mr. Trump\u2019s Washington, has only added to the sense of consternation, if not crisis, on the Continent.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">In fact, Mr. Trump seemed bent on increasing the pressure on his putative allies in ways that widen fissures both within the European Union and with the United States.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-14jsv4e\"><\/aside>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-18sbwfn\">\n<div class=\"css-1h6whtw\">\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">\u201cI\u2019d hate to see what\u2019s in store for people who aren\u2019t allies,\u201d said Constanze Stelzenm\u00fcller, a German analyst with the Brookings Institution.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">Every European effort to find compromise \u201chas met with a brutal slapdown, and these things add up,\u201d Ms. Stelzenm\u00fcller said. \u201cWhile Europe now has relatively little leverage against Washington, there will be a moment when the U.S. needs Europe on a major issue \u2014 and what if there\u2019s just silence?\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">The growing confrontation with the Trump administration is making some Europeans think about how to make Washington pay a price.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">Europeans were told to pay attention to deeds, not words and Twitter messages, said Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff, vice president of the German Marshall Fund in Washington. \u201cBut now the actions are piling up,\u201d he said, \u201cand Trump is proving himself not to be a self-proclaimed deal maker, but a deal breaker.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-14jsv4e\"><\/aside>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-18sbwfn\">\n<div class=\"css-1h6whtw\">\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">If restrictions on car imports come next, he said, it will only enhance the growing sentiment in Germany to stop accommodating Mr. Trump, as Chancellor Angela Merkel has tried to do, and instead \u201cfind a strong response, so that Europe puts a price on U.S. actions \u2014 this is the language Trump understands.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-14jsv4e\"><\/aside>\n<\/div>\n<figure class=\"css-1ardp2d e1a8i6eb0\" role=\"group\" aria-label=\"media\">\n<div class=\"css-1xdhyk6 e1vv25i80\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"css-1m50asq\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2018\/06\/02\/world\/02europe2\/merlin_138950385_901da4b3-6e14-4bb2-b4ab-c7fd92a0cf43-articleLarge.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp&amp;disable=upscale\" sizes=\"((min-width: 600px) and (max-width: 1004px)) 84vw, (min-width: 1005px) 60vw, 100vw\" srcset=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2018\/06\/02\/world\/02europe2\/merlin_138950385_901da4b3-6e14-4bb2-b4ab-c7fd92a0cf43-articleLarge.jpg?quality=90&amp;auto=webp 600w,https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2018\/06\/02\/world\/02europe2\/merlin_138950385_901da4b3-6e14-4bb2-b4ab-c7fd92a0cf43-jumbo.jpg?quality=90&amp;auto=webp 1024w,https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2018\/06\/02\/world\/02europe2\/merlin_138950385_901da4b3-6e14-4bb2-b4ab-c7fd92a0cf43-superJumbo.jpg?quality=90&amp;auto=webp 2048w\" alt=\"\" \/><\/div><figcaption class=\"css-1wtlzrm e3zkro30\"><span class=\"css-fko7t5 e1olku6u0\">Spain\u2019s Socialist leader, Pedro S\u00e1nchez, won the vote to replace Mariano Rajoy as prime minister and is likely to toe the line with Brussels.<\/span><span class=\"css-vg01wm e18m0s9i0\"><span class=\"css-1ly73wi e1afaoz0\">Credit<\/span>Francisco Seco\/Associated Press<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<div class=\"css-18sbwfn\">\n<div class=\"css-1h6whtw\">\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">European governments are now looking into ways to find leverage over Washington, said Mr. Kleine-Brockhoff, a former adviser to the German president.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">\u201cThat\u2019s not something that occurred to anyone to do for the last 70 years,\u201d he said. \u201cBut if you don\u2019t have leverage with Trump, you get pushed around.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">More Germans and Europeans regard traditional trans-Atlanticists as \u201cdinosaurs who don\u2019t understand that Trump has changed the world order, and who are keeping us from drawing necessary conclusions,\u201d Mr. Kleine-Brockhoff said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">They want to distance Europe from Washington, build up European autonomy and find new accommodations with Russia and China.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">But for European governments \u201cthere is a real dilemma here,\u201d he said. \u201cIf you put a high price on Trump\u2019s behavior, you\u2019re accelerating the very process of deterioration of the alliance that you don\u2019t want.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">In Brussels, Cecilia Malmstrom, the European commissioner for trade, told reporters that the bloc\u2019s relationship with the United States had become \u201cless warmhearted.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-14jsv4e\"><\/aside>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-18sbwfn\">\n<div class=\"css-1h6whtw\">\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">\u201cThe situation is worrying and could escalate,\u201d she said, but \u201cwe are not escalating the situation.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">\u201cThe United States is playing a dangerous game,\u201d Ms. Malmstrom said, which risks undermining \u201cthe economic recovery that we have seen lately, notably in the E.U., but also globally.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">Even without Mr. Trump\u2019s antagonism, the dangers for Europe are already considerable. The most vexing ones can be found at home.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">A new Spanish government led by Pedro S\u00e1nchez, a pro-European, is not expected to challenge Brussels. And it may try to calm tensions with independence-minded Catalonia by opening talks on more devolved powers, something the departing prime minister, the center-right politician Mariano Rajoy, refused to do.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-14jsv4e\"><\/aside>\n<\/div>\n<figure class=\"css-1ardp2d e1a8i6eb0\" role=\"group\" aria-label=\"media\">\n<div class=\"css-1xdhyk6 e1vv25i80\">\n<div class=\"css-zjzyr8\">\n<div><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"css-1h6w7uo e1t57l6r0\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2018\/06\/02\/world\/02europe3\/merlin_79610038_2759e837-6134-4068-a73a-0d0ad1677c6d-superJumbo.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp&amp;disable=upscale\" sizes=\"((min-width: 600px) and (max-width: 1004px)) 84vw, (min-width: 1005px) 60vw, 100vw\" alt=\"\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"css-1wtlzrm e3zkro30\"><span class=\"css-fko7t5 e1olku6u0\">The ArcelorMittal steelworks in Dunkerque, France. President Trump announced trade tariffs on steel and aluminum against Europe.<\/span><span class=\"css-vg01wm e18m0s9i0\"><span class=\"css-1ly73wi e1afaoz0\">Credit<\/span>Andrew Testa for The New York Times<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<div class=\"css-18sbwfn\">\n<div class=\"css-1h6whtw\">\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">But Mr. S\u00e1nchez\u2019s government will be a highly vulnerable minority one, and it is likely to usher in a period of weak leadership and potential instability.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">Even the breath of air taken after Rome finally formed a government was shallow and anxious. The government is a peculiar coalition of the populist left and populist right, one that is deeply euroskeptic, friendly to Russia and confrontational with Brussels.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-14jsv4e\"><\/aside>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-18sbwfn\">\n<div class=\"css-1h6whtw\">\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">The battles are likely to come not just on economic grounds, but on key European policies on migration and sanctions against Moscow.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">President Sergio Mattarella of Italy had earlier vetoed an anti-euro economist, Paolo Savona, as finance minister, raising the chilling prospect of new elections that would have effectively been a referendum on membership in the euro.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">In the end, the two populist party leaders named another finance minister, but pointedly made Mr. Savona the new Europe minister instead. There, he will have cabinet rank and get to annoy other European ministers in Brussels meetings \u2014 including, presumably, the country\u2019s own pro-European foreign minister, Enzo Moavero Milanesi.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">The new finance minister is Giovanni Tria, a little-known economics professor who in recent opinion pieces has denounced Germany\u2019s trade surplus as an indicator of the failure of the euro.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">And, of course, the fundamentals of Italy\u2019s economic situation have not changed \u2014 a cumulative debt of over 130 percent of gross domestic product, low growth, high unemployment, and banks with mounds of nonperforming loans.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">Even if the new government keeps Italy in the euro, it promises to reverse a rise in the retirement age and sharply increase government spending and the fiscal deficit, which could create another credit crisis.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">The cost of the two parties\u2019 respective electoral promises \u2014 most notably, a flat tax and a form of guaranteed income \u2014 would amount to at least 6 percent of gross domestic product, the economist Silvia Merler told\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.eu\/article\/silvia-merler-italy-politics-populists-program-violates-all-eu-and-domestic-fiscal-rules\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Politico<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-18sbwfn\">\n<div class=\"css-1h6whtw\">\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">\u201cThe magnitude of the increase in the deficit implied by the combined measures will likely violate all E.U. and domestic fiscal rules and put debt on an unsustainable trajectory,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-14jsv4e\"><\/aside>\n<\/div>\n<figure class=\"css-1ardp2d e1a8i6eb0\" role=\"group\" aria-label=\"media\">\n<div class=\"css-1xdhyk6 e1vv25i80\">\n<div class=\"css-zjzyr8\">\n<div><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"css-1h6w7uo e1t57l6r0\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2018\/06\/02\/world\/02europe4\/merlin_138959520_d2b7473d-ed86-4509-b965-1e6a4738ebec-superJumbo.jpg?quality=75&amp;auto=webp&amp;disable=upscale\" sizes=\"((min-width: 600px) and (max-width: 1004px)) 84vw, (min-width: 1005px) 60vw, 100vw\" alt=\"\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"css-1wtlzrm e3zkro30\"><span class=\"css-fko7t5 e1olku6u0\">Asylum seekers on a boat off Crotone, Italy, last year. Matteo Salvini, the new deputy prime minister and interior minister, has promised the expulsion of migrants.<\/span><span class=\"css-vg01wm e18m0s9i0\"><span class=\"css-1ly73wi e1afaoz0\">Credit<\/span>Chris McGrath\/Getty Images<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<div class=\"css-18sbwfn\">\n<div class=\"css-1h6whtw\">\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">All that is a crisis foretold, with a new budget due in autumn. But there are likely to be other confrontations, with Matteo Salvini \u2014 the leader of the League and the incoming deputy prime minister and interior minister \u2014 vowing a crackdown on migration and the expulsion of up to 500,000 migrants already in Italy.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">That could force Brussels to start an Article 7 process against Italy for breaking the fundamental commitments to the rule of law.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">And the new Italian leaders have already expressed their desire to improve relations and trade with Russia and its president, Vladimir V. Putin.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">That may mean that the European Union is unable to renew economic sanctions against Russia stemming from its behavior abroad, including its annexation of Crimea, violation of the Minsk accords in eastern Ukraine and the assassination attempt on a former Russian spy and his daughter in Britain, which the Kremlin continues to deny.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">\u201cNo one should relax, given the election result, with 60 percent of legislators on record as euroskeptic, let alone with Salvini\u2019s extreme line on migration and the budget,\u201d said Stefano Stefanini, a former Italian diplomat. \u201cWe\u2019re a democracy and you can\u2019t ignore the will of the people, any more than Europeans can ignore that America has elected Trump.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-14jsv4e\"><\/aside>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-18sbwfn\">\n<div class=\"css-1h6whtw\">\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">But Mr. Trump\u2019s latest blow against allies, the tariffs, only piles on the humiliation, Mr. Stefanini said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">\u201cOn every single major issue in the last 18 months, the Trump administration has made decisions in total disregard of its allies\u2019 position,\u201d he said, listing climate, the Iran nuclear deal, the move of the United States Embassy to Jerusalem and \u201cthis one, tariffs, which clearly hits European economic interests.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">And now Mr. Trump is threatening restrictions on car imports, which may be aimed at Germany but will also hit France, Britain, Italy and others. \u201cWith good will, Europe has laid down to accommodate Trump and indulge his whims, but it doesn\u2019t pay off,\u201d Mr. Stefanini said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">Europeans are concluding that if Mr. Trump \u201cchooses to give priority to being a competitor over being a partner and an ally, then we\u2019ll compete hard.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1tyen8a e2kc3sl0\">Still, a post-Brexit Europe that needs NATO and the American nuclear umbrella will work hard not to break the Atlantic link, he said, because the fundamentals of the alliance matter, and no president lasts forever.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>1 June 2018 Steven Erlanger, The New York Times First, Italy swore in a euroskeptic government that has worried the financial markets. Then a pro-Europe government in Spain suddenly collapsed,<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":10383,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[23],"tags":[25],"class_list":["post-10393","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-room","tag-25"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10393","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10393"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10393\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10383"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10393"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10393"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10393"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}