{"id":10926,"date":"2018-07-11T09:39:22","date_gmt":"2018-07-11T08:39:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/?p=10926"},"modified":"2018-07-11T09:43:21","modified_gmt":"2018-07-11T08:43:21","slug":"nato-allies-prepare-to-push-back-at-trump-but-not-too-much","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/nato-allies-prepare-to-push-back-at-trump-but-not-too-much\/","title":{"rendered":"NATO Allies Prepare to Push Back at Trump (but Not Too Much)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>By\u00a0<span class=\"css-1baulvz\"><a class=\"css-1s28epf e1x1pwtg0\" href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/by\/steven-erlanger\">Steven Erlanger<\/a>, July 9, 2018<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/10Nato1-jumbo.jpg\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-10925\" src=\"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/10Nato1-jumbo.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/10Nato1-jumbo.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/10Nato1-jumbo-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/10Nato1-jumbo-768x512.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 706px) 89vw, (max-width: 767px) 82vw, 740px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><span class=\"ResponsiveMedia-captionText--2WFdF css-fyuj2v emkp2hg0\">As the NATO summit meeting approaches, the big question for the alliance\u2019s member countries is how to handle President Trump.<\/span><span class=\"ResponsiveMedia-credit--3F-q_ css-ymj87 emkp2hg1\"><span class=\"css-1dv1kvn\">Credit<\/span>Gabriella Demczuk for The New York Times<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<div class=\"css-18sbwfn StoryBodyCompanionColumn\">\n<div class=\"css-1h6whtw\">\n<p class=\"css-1i0edl6 e2kc3sl0\">BRUSSELS \u2014 NATO summit meetings were once ritualistic events, with the member nations assembling to proclaim that the alliance had never been stronger and pledging to work together on the security issues of the day.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1i0edl6 e2kc3sl0\">In the Trump era, however, they have become anxiety-producing confrontations where the main object is to avoid long-term damage to the alliance. For the allies, that has meant figuring out how to handle President Trump, who arrives on Tuesday for this year\u2019s summit meeting having already\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2018\/07\/02\/world\/europe\/trump-nato.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">sent letters to some NATO member countries<\/a>\u00a0pressuring them to expand their military budgets.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1i0edl6 e2kc3sl0\">The allies see the President Trump of 2018 as different from the one who came to NATO last year \u2014 more aggressive, less willing to be moderated or guided by his senior staff and cabinet secretaries, more confident, especially after his meeting with the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, in his own diplomatic prowess. They worry about his propensity for off-the-cuff pronouncements, like calling for abandoning sanctions against Russia or suspending NATO military exercises.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1i0edl6 e2kc3sl0\">The allies believe they have a decent story to tell about military initiatives to deter Russia, and they are expected to emphasize the considerable progress they have made in reaching spending targets, increasing spending on equipment and improving the readiness of their forces. And they have learned from the last year that handling Mr. Trump with kid gloves only seems to prompt his contempt.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-14jsv4e\"><\/aside>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-18sbwfn StoryBodyCompanionColumn\">\n<div class=\"css-1h6whtw\">\n<p class=\"css-1i0edl6 e2kc3sl0\">That being said, the Europeans will still be operating at a disadvantage, analysts say. \u201cThey\u2019re caught between dependency and outrage,\u201d said Jan Techau of the German Marshall Fund in Berlin. \u201cOutrage means to push back, it\u2019s a question of dignity, but the strategic dependency is real, so you have to endure it,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1i0edl6 e2kc3sl0\">Nevertheless, he favors some pushback against Mr. Trump\u2019s expected criticisms. \u201cWe need to stick together, and I\u2019d nominate one of the Europeans to speak in clear terms to Trump.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1i0edl6 e2kc3sl0\">Douglas Lute, a retired American general and former ambassador to NATO, said that Mr. Trump \u201cwould be true to form: He isn\u2019t going to fly to Brussels and be a different person, but he\u2019ll be disruptive and play to his base.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1i0edl6 e2kc3sl0\">Mr. Trump argues that NATO countries have committed to spending 2 percent of GDP by 2024, and \u201cowe\u201d money to NATO. But countries decide their own military budgets, and at the Wales NATO meeting of 2014,\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nato.int\/cps\/ic\/natohq\/official_texts_112964.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">they only committed<\/a>\u00a0to increase military spending and \u201caim to move toward\u201d the 2 percent guideline by 2024.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-14jsv4e\"><\/aside>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-18sbwfn StoryBodyCompanionColumn\">\n<div class=\"css-1h6whtw\">\n<p class=\"css-1i0edl6 e2kc3sl0\">\u201cThe spending pledge is a 10-year program and we\u2019re just in the fourth year of it,\u201d Mr. Lute said, adding that European allies had already increased their spending by $87 billion a year, \u201cand that\u2019s real money.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/merlin_139724394_c35c6921-2ef7-4e10-b9b1-520246f3a052-jumbo.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-10927\" src=\"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/merlin_139724394_c35c6921-2ef7-4e10-b9b1-520246f3a052-jumbo.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"684\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/merlin_139724394_c35c6921-2ef7-4e10-b9b1-520246f3a052-jumbo.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/merlin_139724394_c35c6921-2ef7-4e10-b9b1-520246f3a052-jumbo-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/merlin_139724394_c35c6921-2ef7-4e10-b9b1-520246f3a052-jumbo-768x513.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 706px) 89vw, (max-width: 767px) 82vw, 740px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><span class=\"css-1v07nl7 e1olku6u0\">In the face of anticipated criticism from the president, the allies are expected to emphasize the gains they have made in combat readiness and military expenditure.<\/span><span class=\"css-vg01wm e18m0s9i0\"><span class=\"css-1ly73wi e1afaoz0\">Credit<\/span>Laetitia Vancon for The New York Times<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<div class=\"css-18sbwfn StoryBodyCompanionColumn\">\n<div class=\"css-1h6whtw\">\n<p class=\"css-1i0edl6 e2kc3sl0\">The allies cannot control Mr. Trump\u2019s messages or Twitter outbursts, but they can control their own, analysts say. Preparing for Mr. Trump is mostly about strategic messaging in the room \u2014 what he is told \u2014 and ensuring the right strategic messaging outside the room, the official said, especially with Mr. Trump scheduled to meet the Russian president, Vladimir V. Putin, in Helsinki next week.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1i0edl6 e2kc3sl0\">A core element of deterrence is making it clear that the political will exists to use military force if NATO is challenged \u2014 a more difficult sell when the United States president appears to be more in conflict with his NATO allies than with Mr. Putin, the leader of the nation NATO is intended to deter.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1i0edl6 e2kc3sl0\">As one indication of how to handle the criticism, the Canadian prime minister, Justin Trudeau, who Mr. Trump derided as \u201cdishonest and weak\u201d at the\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2018\/06\/09\/world\/americas\/donald-trump-g7-nafta.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">disastrous Group of 7 meeting<\/a>\u00a0last month, and who received one of the more aggressive pre-summit letters from Mr. Trump about increasing military spending, is visiting Latvia before coming to Brussels.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1i0edl6 e2kc3sl0\">Although Mr. Trump\u2019s letter did not mention it, Canada took the leading role in Latvia in one of NATO\u2019s new \u201cspearhead\u201d commands, which are based in the three Baltic nations and Poland and aimed at Russia. Ottawa has also committed to increasing its defense budget by more than 70 percent over the next decade.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1i0edl6 e2kc3sl0\">Germany, too, promises to increase military spending to 1.5 percent of its economy by 2024. While not the 2 percent level, Berlin will argue that will still be more than any other NATO country other than the United States. Mr. Trump, who appears to have a special animus toward Germany, believes that Berlin has developed a vibrant social system and thriving export-driven economy unfairly and on the back of the United States, by not spending enough on defense.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1i0edl6 e2kc3sl0\">Germany is currently spending 1.24 percent of gross domestic product on its military, which will rise to 1.31 percent next year, an increase of $5 billion to $43 billion, a sizable if still insufficient increase, said Norbert R\u00f6ttgen, chairman of the German Parliament\u2019s Foreign Relations Committee.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-18sbwfn StoryBodyCompanionColumn\">\n<div class=\"css-1h6whtw\">\n<p class=\"css-1i0edl6 e2kc3sl0\">The best answer to Mr. Trump is \u201cto accept he has a point, and respond by displaying more European strength and enhancing European defense in cooperation with NATO,\u201d Mr. R\u00f6ttgen said. As a whole, the alliance\u2019s European members spend about $200 billion a year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1i0edl6 e2kc3sl0\">\u201cThat\u2019s a lot, but it\u2019s cost inefficient, militarily ineffective and lacks political weight and impact,\u201d he said. \u201cWe need to strengthen the European pillar of NATO.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1i0edl6 e2kc3sl0\">The allies are happy to have Mr. Trump take credit, some of which he deserves, for the significant increase in alliance military spending.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1i0edl6 e2kc3sl0\">But allies are also concerned that Mr. Trump sees no political benefit in a calm meeting, and that he will not only be loudly critical, but may also try to bargain American troop strength in Europe for increased military spending by others.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1i0edl6 e2kc3sl0\">That might entail a threat to reduce American spending on the<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.defense.gov\/News\/Article\/Article\/1199828\/2018-budget-request-for-european-reassurance-initiative-grows-to-47-billion\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u00a0European Reassurance Initiative to improve force readiness<\/a>, while challenging allies to make up the difference, said Tomas Valasek, a former Slovak ambassador to NATO and now director of Carnegie Europe.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/merlin_138302115_03bf403b-79d8-4f86-9836-289a24b3ff60-superJumbo.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-10928\" src=\"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/merlin_138302115_03bf403b-79d8-4f86-9836-289a24b3ff60-superJumbo.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"2048\" height=\"1365\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/merlin_138302115_03bf403b-79d8-4f86-9836-289a24b3ff60-superJumbo.jpg 2048w, https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/merlin_138302115_03bf403b-79d8-4f86-9836-289a24b3ff60-superJumbo-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/merlin_138302115_03bf403b-79d8-4f86-9836-289a24b3ff60-superJumbo-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/merlin_138302115_03bf403b-79d8-4f86-9836-289a24b3ff60-superJumbo-1024x683.jpg 1024w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 706px) 89vw, (max-width: 767px) 82vw, 740px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><span class=\"css-1v07nl7 e1olku6u0\">Mr. Trump with the secretary general of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, at the White House in May.<\/span><span class=\"css-vg01wm e18m0s9i0\"><span class=\"css-1ly73wi e1afaoz0\">Credit<\/span>Doug Mills\/The New York Times<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<div class=\"css-18sbwfn StoryBodyCompanionColumn\">\n<div class=\"css-1h6whtw\">\n<p class=\"css-1i0edl6 e2kc3sl0\">\u201cTo be honest, no one really knows how Trump will act during the summit,\u201d Mr. Valasek said. \u201cHis unpredictability is not a byproduct but a design feature \u2014 he likes it that way. He comes to this meeting not only prepared to go into confrontation with his peers and allies but with his own staff.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-14jsv4e\"><\/aside>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-18sbwfn StoryBodyCompanionColumn\">\n<div class=\"css-1h6whtw\">\n<p class=\"css-1i0edl6 e2kc3sl0\">Robin Niblett, director of Chatham House, said that the Europeans should respond by telling Mr. Trump that \u201cNATO is a success story, with increased military spending across the board and two new commands.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1i0edl6 e2kc3sl0\">But another fear, he and others said, is that Mr. Trump will seek to bargain \u2014 \u201cto conflate trade and security,\u201d as he has already done with South Korea and Japan. Europeans cannot accept making collective security transactional or dependent on actions on tariffs or specific spending targets in a relationship that is mutually beneficial, Mr. Niblett said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1i0edl6 e2kc3sl0\">\u201cIt can feel like a protection racket, trading security for economic return,\u201d he said, especially as \u201che then goes off to see Putin.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1i0edl6 e2kc3sl0\">That meeting worries NATO allies, because Mr. Putin is expected to flatter Mr. Trump and play on the American president\u2019s notion of himself as a great negotiator in face-to-face meetings. They cite the Singapore summit with Mr. Kim, when Mr. Trump emerged to announce the cancellation of longstanding military exercises with South Korea \u2014 without consulting or informing either the South Korean government or the Pentagon.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1i0edl6 e2kc3sl0\">They worry that Mr. Trump might unilaterally cancel\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nato.int\/nato_static_fl2014\/assets\/pdf\/pdf_2018_04\/20180425_1804-factsheet_exercises_en.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">planned NATO exercises<\/a>, in particular Trident Juncture, a large one planned for late October, and Anakonda, for November, to practice the defense of Poland.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1i0edl6 e2kc3sl0\">They worry he will even announce the withdrawal of some American troops from Germany, though Congress would have something to say about that. They fear he will abandon sanctions on Russia over Crimea and eastern Ukraine. And bizarrely enough, they express hope that Mr. Trump\u2019s hard-line national security adviser, John R. Bolton, will restrain him from rash acts.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1i0edl6 e2kc3sl0\">\u201cPutin wants to deepen the schism between NATO, Europe and America,\u201d Mr. Niblett said. Mr. Trump\u2019s world is one of interests, no allies, with Europe a competitor and NATO \u201cas bad as Nafta,\u201d as Mr. Trump has averred, referring to the North American Free Trade Agreement. That world fits Mr. Putin\u2019s aims.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-14jsv4e\"><\/aside>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-18sbwfn StoryBodyCompanionColumn\">\n<div class=\"css-1h6whtw\">\n<p class=\"css-1i0edl6 e2kc3sl0\">\u201cEven if Trump simply says that he and Putin have agreed \u2018to continue the dialogue,\u2019 that will put the cat among the pigeons among European allies,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1i0edl6 e2kc3sl0\">Ivan Krastev, director of the Center for Liberal Strategies in Sofia, Bulgaria, said that for the Europeans, \u201cit\u2019s hard to imagine a world without allies.\u201d But Mr. Trump is a disrupter, he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1i0edl6 e2kc3sl0\">\u201cIn the world of Trump, allies don\u2019t exist \u2014 allies are like ex-wives, who only make moral and financial claims. Disrupters don\u2019t need allies.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><em>A version of this article appears in print on\u00a0<time class=\"css-10rvbm3\" datetime=\"2018-07-10T04:00:00.000Z\">July 10, 2018<\/time>, on Page\u00a0A8\u00a0of the New York edition\u00a0with the headline:\u00a0Allies Brace As Trump Makes Way To NATO.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By\u00a0Steven Erlanger, July 9, 2018 As the NATO summit meeting approaches, the big question for the alliance\u2019s member countries is how to handle President Trump.CreditGabriella Demczuk for The New York<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":10925,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[23],"tags":[25],"class_list":["post-10926","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-room","tag-25"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10926","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10926"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10926\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10925"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10926"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10926"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10926"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}