{"id":12020,"date":"2019-01-18T17:46:30","date_gmt":"2019-01-18T16:46:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/?p=12020"},"modified":"2019-01-18T17:46:30","modified_gmt":"2019-01-18T16:46:30","slug":"amid-brexit-chaos-e-u-sees-a-catastrophic-success","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/amid-brexit-chaos-e-u-sees-a-catastrophic-success\/","title":{"rendered":"Amid Brexit Chaos, E.U. Sees a \u2018Catastrophic Success\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1ygdjhk evys1bk0\">BRUSSELS \u2014 Some of the smugness here is gone.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1ygdjhk evys1bk0\">The European Union took a tough line in negotiating its divorce with Britain, wishing to preserve its unity and discourage other countries from wanting to leave the bloc. But now officials worry that what they have achieved may be \u201ca catastrophic success.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1ygdjhk evys1bk0\">British politics is in meltdown after Parliament\u2019s crushing defeat of Prime Minister Theresa May\u2019s carefully negotiated plan for Brexit, as the process of withdrawal is known. And no other compelling alternative plan for an orderly exit is in sight, with just 10 weeks to go until Britain is set to exit the bloc.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1ygdjhk evys1bk0\">European Union officials are now worried that Britain could leave without any agreement \u2014 a so-called \u201chard exit\u201d that analysts warn could trigger a recession in Britain, causing huge backlogs, delays and shortages of goods, and badly hit the European economy, too, since more than 40 percent of Britain\u2019s trade is with the bloc.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1ygdjhk evys1bk0\">Yet they see no point in making any concessions now, since Mrs. May has lost control of the process.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1ygdjhk evys1bk0\">\u201cCatastrophic success is accurate, in that the general meltdown of the British political system highlights to everyone what a bad idea it is to leave the European Union,\u201d said Nathalie Tocci, director of Italy\u2019s Institute of International Relations. \u201cThat is success, but catastrophic because at this point there\u2019s no obvious way out of this.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1ygdjhk evys1bk0\">Some in Britain are urging a delay in its scheduled March 29 departure, to allow time for a new consensus, a leadership change or even a second referendum. But even a delay, which the bloc would probably grant if a deal seemed imminent, has its own complications.<\/p>\n<div class=\"css-u5vfum StoryBodyCompanionColumn\">\n<div class=\"css-4w7y5l\">\n<p class=\"css-1ygdjhk evys1bk0\">Postponing Britain\u2019s departure, while avoiding chaos, \u201ccould still have bad and even catastrophic consequences for the E.U., given the delays involved and the imminence of the European elections,\u201d Ms. Tocci said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1ygdjhk evys1bk0\">Those\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"http:\/\/www.europarl.europa.eu\/at-your-service\/en\/be-heard\/elections\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">elections for a new European Parliament<\/a>, set to begin May 23, are considered a crucial test of populist and euroskeptic sentiment on the Continent.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1ygdjhk evys1bk0\">An extended Brexit debate and the subsequent uncertainty \u201cwould be spun in different national contexts, creating risks and unpredictability that most incumbent governments don\u2019t want to raise,\u201d Ms. Tocci said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-1m2ozyi\"><\/aside>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-190ncxp efqptxt0\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"css-u5vfum StoryBodyCompanionColumn\">\n<div class=\"css-4w7y5l\">\n<p class=\"css-1ygdjhk evys1bk0\">But European leaders seem united in rejecting any renegotiation of the withdrawal agreement, or divorce deal, which they believe already goes a long way toward meeting British demands.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1ygdjhk evys1bk0\">For now, the Europeans will wait to see what emerges from Britain\u2019s lawmakers. At the same time, they are preparing for a \u201cno-deal\u201d exit and consider March 29 to be a pressure-cooker deadline for Britain.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1ygdjhk evys1bk0\">\u201cNobody wishes to end up with a complete breakdown, which would be bad for both sides, even if worse for the U.K.,\u201d said Mark Leonard, director of the European Council on Foreign Relations. \u201cBut the other E.U. states are reasonably confident Britain won\u2019t do that, since there is no parliamentary majority for a no-deal.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1ygdjhk evys1bk0\">Once a divorce deal is finally done, Britain\u2019s future relationship with the bloc can be negotiated in many ways, European officials consistently say. But most of the likely options would require retaining the primary sticking point in Britain: the guarantee that no hard border will be created on the island of Ireland.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1ygdjhk evys1bk0\">President Emmanuel Macron of France has been particularly tough on the issue, partly because France sees a larger role for itself once Britain leaves.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1ygdjhk evys1bk0\">But now that he is so unpopular at home and challenged by the anti-Europe \u201cyellow vest\u201d protesters, \u201cthe more macabre and gruesome the British situation is, the better given his domestic situation,\u201d Mr. Leonard said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1ygdjhk evys1bk0\">France will not accept any dilution of the single market, said Christian Lequesne, a professor of political science at Sciences Po in Paris. In regard to the European Parliament, France also wants to avoid \u201can ongoing negotiation with a new Parliament without Britons, while the British are not officially out of the E.U.,\u201d he said, adding, \u201cThat\u2019s just too complicated.\u201d<\/p>\n<div class=\"css-4w7y5l\">\n<p class=\"css-1ygdjhk evys1bk0\">Even Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, who has been eager to keep close ties with Britain, has said that \u201cit is clear that there cannot be any renegotiations\u201d of the current deal, although she is open in principle to extending the deadline for departure.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1ygdjhk evys1bk0\">From the perspective of the European Union, the whole exercise has been something of a nightmare, said Fabian Zuleeg, chief executive of the European Policy Center, an independent think tank in Brussels.<\/p>\n<div class=\"css-4w7y5l\">\n<p class=\"css-1ygdjhk evys1bk0\">\u201cThe E.U. would say it made a number of concessions to the U.K. but preserved its principles, making the best deal possible given British red lines,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1ygdjhk evys1bk0\">The bloc deals only with governments, not with parliaments or the public, and the European Union was eager to help Mrs. May get her deal through.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1ygdjhk evys1bk0\">\u201cBut if it now looks like that is not in her power, no matter what the E.U. puts on the table, the inclination is not to put anything more out there,\u201d Mr. Zuleeg said. \u201cAnd some still feel that the closer the U.K. gets to a no-deal, the more likely it is that they will compromise.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1ygdjhk evys1bk0\">There is little regret among European officials about their role in the talks. As Mr. Leonard said, the European Union\u2019s primary goal from the start has been to preserve the single market, get money from Britain, preserve the rights of European Union citizens, make sure that Ireland was protected and make leaving look unattractive to other countries.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1ygdjhk evys1bk0\">The member states held together, Mr. Leonard said, adding, \u201cBrussels never sold out Ireland, as much as the U.K. may have wished it to.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-1m2ozyi\">\n<div class=\"css-we5v5d ehpkjz40\" data-testid=\"article-companion-wrapper\">\n<div id=\"newsletter-module\" class=\"css-rzld5f ehpkjz41\">\n<div class=\"css-tmqdvj ehpkjz42\">\n<div class=\"css-jj6290\">\n<p class=\"css-1ygdjhk evys1bk0\">Some analysts found fault with both sides.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1ygdjhk evys1bk0\">\u201cThe negotiations have been in a certain way a failure, more diplomatically than politically,\u201d said Luuk van Middelaar, a Dutch philosopher and former aide to the first president of the European Council, Herman Van Rompuy.<\/p>\n<div class=\"css-u5vfum StoryBodyCompanionColumn\">\n<div class=\"css-4w7y5l\">\n<p class=\"css-1ygdjhk evys1bk0\">Being an institution of laws and regulations, the European Union paid too little attention to the strategic and geopolitical importance of Britain to Europe, he said, focusing on trade first, where Brussels held the cards, and security later.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1ygdjhk evys1bk0\">The British, with their attitude of having their cake and eating it, paid too little attention to the \u201cunavoidable trade-offs between taking back control and economic loss,\u201d Mr. van Middelaar said. But Brussels also suffered from hubris. \u201cWe thought too soon that we rode a faultless track,\u201d he said. \u201cThere was pride about the unity shown.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1ygdjhk evys1bk0\">Brussels, Mr. van Middelaar added, \u201cpaid too much attention to the logic of the divorce, and too little attention went to the bigger strategic dimension of Brexit and the geopolitical aspects, which are a loss \u2014 an amputation.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1ygdjhk evys1bk0\">Michel Barnier, the chief European negotiator, defended the withdrawal agreement as \u201cthe best possible compromise,\u201d and said Brussels should be patient with the workings of British democracy.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1ygdjhk evys1bk0\">At the same time, he urged faster efforts to prepare for a no-deal exit, as France did on Friday, ordering the implementation of its no-deal contingency plan.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1ygdjhk evys1bk0\">Frans Timmermans, the optimistic first vice president of the European Commission, said that Brexit would damage everyone, and that \u201cit is our collective responsibility to limit that harm as much as possible.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-1m2ozyi\"><\/aside>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-190ncxp efqptxt0\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"css-u5vfum StoryBodyCompanionColumn\">\n<div class=\"css-4w7y5l\">\n<p class=\"css-1ygdjhk evys1bk0\">He cited the Rolling Stones: \u201cYou can\u2019t always get what you want, but if you try sometimes you might get what you need.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-1ygdjhk evys1bk0\">If only it were clearer to Brussels what Britain wanted, let alone needed.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>By Steven Erlanger (Milan Schreuer contributed reporting.)<\/p>\n<p><time class=\"css-qddhf4 e16638kd0\" datetime=\"2019-01-17\">Jan. 17, 2019<\/time><\/p>\n<p>The New York Times<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/aside>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>BRUSSELS \u2014 Some of the smugness here is gone. The European Union took a tough line in negotiating its divorce with Britain, wishing to preserve its unity and discourage other<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":12021,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[23],"tags":[25],"class_list":["post-12020","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-room","tag-25"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12020","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12020"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12020\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12021"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12020"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12020"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12020"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}