{"id":13581,"date":"2020-06-15T17:22:49","date_gmt":"2020-06-15T16:22:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/?p=13581"},"modified":"2020-06-15T17:23:29","modified_gmt":"2020-06-15T16:23:29","slug":"kemal-dervis-less-globalization-more-multilateralism","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/kemal-dervis-less-globalization-more-multilateralism\/","title":{"rendered":"Kemal Dervis &#8211; Less Globalization, More Multilateralism"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"article__byline\"><time class=\"vl-divider\" datetime=\"2020-06-10T08:35Z\">Jun 10, 2020\u00a0<\/time><span class=\"byline\"><a class=\"track-event\" href=\"https:\/\/www.project-syndicate.org\/columnist\/kemal-dervis\" data-entity-type=\"member\" data-entity-id=\"9a6c7c0246f86f2c0f30280b\" data-language=\"english\" data-event-action=\"click\" data-entity-link-name=\"kemal-dervis\" data-href-original=\"\/columnist\/kemal-dervis\"><span class=\"listing__author author\">KEMAL DERVI\u015e\u00a0<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div class=\"article__abs u-mt-se\" dir=\"ltr\">\n<p>While some degree of deglobalization may be desirable today, this process also carries grave risks, from skyrocketing production costs to geopolitical conflict. The only way to mitigate those risks is through enhanced multilateral cooperation.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"article__body article__body--commentary english\" dir=\"ltr\" data-page-area=\"article-body\">\n<p data-line-id=\"c90720ffd55a4ad58d263f6e5e434c15\">WASHINGTON, DC \u2013 With the COVID-19 catastrophe having laid bare the vulnerabilities inherent in a hyper-connected, just-in-time global economy, a retreat from globalization increasingly seems inevitable. To some extent, this may be desirable. But achieving positive outcomes will depend on deep, inclusive, and effective multilateralism.<\/p>\n<p data-line-id=\"3519c2a7dc7f4955944713ece906d601\">One of the most powerful drivers of support for deglobalization is the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.foreignaffairs.com\/articles\/2020-03-16\/will-coronavirus-end-globalization-we-know-it\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">vulnerability<\/a>\u00a0of production models that rely on long and complex global supply chains, which have sacrificed robustness and resilience at the altar of short-term efficiency and cost reduction. With many companies and industries dependent on faraway suppliers \u2013 and lacking any alternatives \u2013 no part of such value chains can function unless all parts do. And as the COVID-19 crisis\u00a0<a class=\"link link__internal\" href=\"https:\/\/www.project-syndicate.org\/commentary\/global-cooperation-can-prevent-next-pandemic-by-kemal-dervis-and-sebasti-n-strauss-2020-03\" aria-controls=\"article-link-5e622a6e671a8d5d7cd94fa6\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-haspopup=\"true\">has shown<\/a>, one never knows when parts will stop functioning.<button class=\"comment__caller comment__caller--no-comment\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-label=\"Paragraph comment\" aria-controls=\"login_register\" aria-haspopup=\"true\"><\/button><\/p>\n<p data-line-id=\"bc10ec89ee4e452eaccfe86b9bfbe392\">This is especially true with regard to China, a global supply-chain hub. The country is\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/politics\/story\/2020-03-04\/spreading-coronavirus-tears-apart-global-supply-chains\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">central<\/a>\u00a0to the manufacture of a wide range of common consumer products, including mobile phones, computers, and household goods. Moreover, it is the world\u2019s largest\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2019-08-05\/pentagon-sees-security-threat-in-china-s-drug-supply-dominance\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">supplier<\/a>\u00a0of active pharmaceutical ingredients, so a crisis affecting production there can disrupt medical supplies worldwide.<button class=\"comment__caller comment__caller--no-comment\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-label=\"Paragraph comment\" aria-controls=\"login_register\" aria-haspopup=\"true\"><\/button><\/p>\n<p data-line-id=\"2f30007c4d904b8caa7aac22a999f489\">It should not be surprising, then, that China\u2019s COVID-19 lockdown immediately\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/story\/heres-what-chinas-coronavirus-shutdown-did-to-global-supply-chains-2020-05-12\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">affected<\/a>\u00a0global production. Fortunately, China seems to have brought the coronavirus under control, and economic activity in the country is returning to normal, so the disruption has been limited. But there is no guarantee that the next disruption will not be more severe or last longer.<\/p>\n<p data-line-id=\"46fdca6201224222ba5b3e9b15a8cb77\">Such a disruption could come in the form of another public-health crisis or a natural disaster. But it may also be a political decision \u2013 what the political scientists Henry Farrell and Abraham L. Newman call \u201cweaponized interdependence.\u201d<button class=\"comment__caller comment__caller--no-comment\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-label=\"Paragraph comment\" aria-controls=\"login_register\" aria-haspopup=\"true\"><\/button><\/p>\n<p data-line-id=\"6b35ed832d5d4d93bf21fa3516ea7e90\">This was a source of apprehension even before the pandemic, when the United States\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/globalasia.org\/v14no3\/cover\/weaponized-globalization-huawei-and-the-emerging-battle-over-5g-networks_henry-farrellabraham-newman\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">cited<\/a>\u00a0national security concerns to block Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei from its markets and restrict its access to US technologies and suppliers. Many governments are also intensifying scrutiny of foreign investments, lowering the thresholds beyond which restrictions are triggered, increasing the number of sectors deemed strategic, and working to repatriate production in these areas.<\/p>\n<p data-line-id=\"ea5e518a0616492e8e67570e5491a98a\">Many climate activists also call for more local production. Global shipping\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.imo.org\/en\/OurWork\/Environment\/PollutionPrevention\/AirPollution\/Pages\/GHG-Emissions.aspx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">emitted<\/a>\u00a0796 million tons of carbon dioxide in 2012, accounting for about 2.2% of total anthropogenic CO<sub>2<\/sub>\u00a0emissions for that year, according to the International Maritime Organization. Reducing the distances over which goods are transported would advance the world\u2019s emissions-reduction goals. But at what cost?<button class=\"comment__caller comment__caller--no-comment\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-label=\"Paragraph comment\" aria-controls=\"login_register\" aria-haspopup=\"true\"><\/button><\/p>\n<p data-line-id=\"91193f8b683543dca0984ebf5c5a727f\">Efforts to prevent \u201ccarbon leakage\u201d \u2013 when companies shift production away from countries that have implemented strong emissions-reduction measures (such as carbon prices, cap-and-trade mechanisms, or strict regulations) \u2013 would also imply some deglobalization. Already, some\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/ec.europa.eu\/commission\/presscorner\/detail\/en\/SPEECH_19_4230\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">advocate<\/a>\u00a0carbon border taxes to discourage this phenomenon \u2013 an approach that would strengthen the incentive for local production.<button class=\"comment__caller comment__caller--no-comment\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-label=\"Paragraph comment\" aria-controls=\"login_register\" aria-haspopup=\"true\"><\/button><\/p>\n<p data-line-id=\"8d3a78104cae436483a666aedde8be81\">All of this suggests that some degree of deglobalization, with an emphasis on robustness and sustainability, may be both inevitable and desirable. But this process carries serious risks, from skyrocketing production costs to geopolitical conflict.<\/p>\n<p data-line-id=\"3bd09c3c091b4ceaa008154960589e53\">To be sure, some increase in production costs will be unavoidable, as countries try to diversify their supply chains and build more redundancy into them. And it may not be too difficult for very large economies to cover the costs of diversifying their production. But small and medium-size economies would find the costs prohibitive. Countries attempting to stockpile supplies of vital goods would also run into cost constraints.<button class=\"comment__caller comment__caller--no-comment\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-label=\"Paragraph comment\" aria-controls=\"login_register\" aria-haspopup=\"true\"><\/button><\/p>\n<p data-line-id=\"830ef9459d99448695c5dc8b5f68ac52\">Climate concerns and carbon border taxes could compound the problem, by spurring cycles of retaliation and intensifying strain on international trade. Likewise, reducing trade and foreign investment in the name of national security may actually increase political tensions and, by spurring a cycle of reprisals, place economies on a downward spiral.<button class=\"comment__caller comment__caller--no-comment\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-label=\"Paragraph comment\" aria-controls=\"login_register\" aria-haspopup=\"true\"><\/button><\/p>\n<p data-line-id=\"5a2a2b9ea1cc434e932de39468aa836a\">The emergence of two large and diversified blocs centered around the US and China could reduce some of the economic costs of deglobalization. But it would also undermine the agency of most countries (which would be forced to choose a side), further politicize the global economy, and erode the legitimacy of the international order. Moreover, by entrenching a volatile long-term rivalry, it would pose a grave threat to peace. The addition of a third bloc, comprising the European Union and other cooperation-oriented economies, would not do much to offset these disadvantages.<button class=\"comment__caller comment__caller--no-comment\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-label=\"Paragraph comment\" aria-controls=\"login_register\" aria-haspopup=\"true\"><\/button><\/p>\n<p data-line-id=\"b5478130adea4270ae531d43d6bf9f22\">A better approach would be based on effective forms of\u00a0<em>multilateral<\/em>\u00a0and\u00a0<em>global<\/em>\u00a0cooperation. To ensure adequate pandemic preparedness, for example, the world should develop a more ambitious shared early-warning system and agree to stockpile medical equipment in regional centers, overseen by the World Health Organization, with established cost-sharing policies and flexible deployment plans. Similarly, protocols and financing for rapid vaccine development and production capacity should be agreed (and continually updated). This would place the world on a stronger footing to manage a large-scale disease outbreak than an every-country-for-itself approach.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Jun 10, 2020\u00a0KEMAL DERVI\u015e\u00a0 While some degree of deglobalization may be desirable today, this process also carries grave risks, from skyrocketing production costs to geopolitical conflict. The only way to<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":13582,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[23],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13581","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-room"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13581","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13581"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13581\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13582"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13581"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13581"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13581"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}