{"id":13690,"date":"2020-08-31T14:15:27","date_gmt":"2020-08-31T13:15:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/?p=13690"},"modified":"2020-09-07T10:10:53","modified_gmt":"2020-09-07T09:10:53","slug":"the-world-cup-effect-a-new-avenue-of-thought-in-search-of-an-effective-de-confinement-strategy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/the-world-cup-effect-a-new-avenue-of-thought-in-search-of-an-effective-de-confinement-strategy\/","title":{"rendered":"Effet coupe du monde : une nouvelle piste de r\u00e9flexion \u00e0 la qu\u00eate d&rsquo;une strat\u00e9gie de d\u00e9confinement efficace"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span class=\"author\"><span style=\"font-size: 1rem;\">Policy Center for the New South | 10 juin 2020<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"author\">Aomar Ibourk\u00a0,\u00a0Karim El Aynaoui\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.policycenter.ma\/publications\/effet-coupe-du-monde-une-nouvelle-piste-de-r%C3%A9flexion-%C3%A0-la-qu%C3%AAte-dune-strat%C3%A9gie-de\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft wp-image-13720 size-medium\" src=\"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/policy-brief-effet-coupe-du-monde-strategie-de-deconfinement-129x300.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/policy-brief-effet-coupe-du-monde-strategie-de-deconfinement-129x300.png 129w, https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/policy-brief-effet-coupe-du-monde-strategie-de-deconfinement.png 305w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 129px) 100vw, 129px\" \/><\/a>Ce travail vient explorer une nouvelle piste qui pourrait contribuer \u00e0 une lev\u00e9e de confinement efficace. Il s\u2019agit d\u2019un ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne que l\u2019on appelle \u00ab effet coupe du monde \u00bb. Nous d\u00e9finissons, d\u2019abord, ce ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne, montrons son existence et son \u00e9ventuel effet amplificateur au regard de la progression de la pand\u00e9mie, en termes du nombre de cas infect\u00e9s au pic et la dur\u00e9e encourue avant son atteinte. Partant de sc\u00e9narios hypoth\u00e9tiques, en ce qui concerne les conditions initiales \u00e0 la sortie du confinement, nous montrons qu\u2019\u00e0 probabilit\u00e9 constante d\u2019infection, l\u2019effet coupe du monde se traduit toujours par un nombre de cas infect\u00e9s plus important au pic (\u0394y &gt; 0) et une dur\u00e9e plus r\u00e9duite avant son atteinte (\u0394x &lt; 0). Nous discutons, enfin, des \u00e9l\u00e9ments pouvant contribuer \u00e0 l\u2019att\u00e9nuation dudit effet. Cette discussion soutient que la lev\u00e9e du confinement, partiellement ou compl\u00e8tement, devrait s\u2019accompagner du maintien des mesures de \u00ab distanciation sociale \u00bb et du port des masques, la limitation des contacts, la gestion prudente des flux de personnes et un contr\u00f4le particulier, voire une fermeture, des lieux des grands rassemblements, tels que les \u2018Moussems\u2019, les cin\u00e9mas, les stades, les \u00e9coles, etc.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.policycenter.ma\/publications\/effet-coupe-du-monde-une-nouvelle-piste-de-r%C3%A9flexion-%C3%A0-la-qu%C3%AAte-dune-strat%C3%A9gie-de\">T\u00e9l\u00e9chargez le document int\u00e9gral sur le site du Policy Center for the New South\u00a0<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Policy Center for the New South | 10 juin 2020 Aomar Ibourk\u00a0,\u00a0Karim El Aynaoui\u00a0 Ce travail vient explorer une nouvelle piste qui pourrait contribuer \u00e0 une lev\u00e9e de confinement efficace.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":13691,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[23],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13690","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-room"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13690","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13690"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13690\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13691"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13690"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13690"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13690"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}