{"id":14971,"date":"2022-02-15T10:18:09","date_gmt":"2022-02-15T09:18:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/?p=14971"},"modified":"2022-02-15T10:18:09","modified_gmt":"2022-02-15T09:18:09","slug":"kevin-rudd-what-will-china-do-if-russia-escalates-in-ukraine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/kevin-rudd-what-will-china-do-if-russia-escalates-in-ukraine\/","title":{"rendered":"Kevin Rudd: What will China do if Russia escalates in Ukraine?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"gta-site-banner--expert-author upper\"><span class=\"gta-site-banner--tax--cats gta-post-site-banner--tax--cats\">New Atlanticist,\u00a0<\/span>February 10, 2022<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"gta-site-banner--tax--connect gta-post-site-banner--tax--connect\">By<\/span>\u00a0Katherine Walla<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.atlanticcouncil.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/2022-02-04T091130Z_1437413128_RC2XCS97E6BB_RTRMADP_3_OLYMPICS-2022-PUTIN-1024x576.jpg\" alt=\"What will China do if Russia escalates in Ukraine?\" \/><\/p>\n<p>There\u2019s been a \u201cquantum shift\u201d in the relationship between the world\u2019s two largest authoritarian powers, said former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd.<\/p>\n<p>The shift is represented by the\u00a05,300-word joint statement\u00a0by China\u2019s Xi Jinping and Russia\u2019s Vladimir Putin outlining their intended collaboration to redistribute global power. Former US National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley\u2014who joined Rudd at an\u00a0Atlantic Council Front Page event\u00a0co-hosted by the Asia Society and the Council\u2019s Global China Hub\u2014called the statement a \u201cmanifesto for their global leadership,\u201d warning that Russia and China are making the case for taking charge of the international system\u2014assuming a role they believe the United States has abdicated.<\/p>\n<p>But as the crisis in Eastern Europe continues, just how far is China willing to go to help Russia? Are there parallels between Ukraine and Taiwan? And what should the United States do about this? Hadley and Rudd dove into those challenging questions at Thursday\u2019s event, moderated by Susan Glasser of the\u00a0<em>New Yorker<\/em>. Here are more highlights from the discussion:<\/p>\n<section id=\"responsive-spacer-block_6205a9a7bfd69\" class=\"gta-spacer gutenblock gutenblock--responsive-spacer responsive-spacer  extra-small\"><\/section>\n<h4 id=\"h-depends-on-your-definition-of-democracy\"><strong>Depends on your definition of \u2018democracy\u2019<\/strong><\/h4>\n<section id=\"responsive-spacer-block_6205a9adbfd6a\" class=\"gta-spacer gutenblock gutenblock--responsive-spacer responsive-spacer  extra-small\"><\/section>\n<ul>\n<li>Three aspects of the joint statement jumped out to Rudd: First, by coming out against NATO expansion it is \u201cthe first time\u201d that China has issued \u201cdirect commentary\u201d on the topic. Second, it amounts to an \u201cexplicit\u201d China-Russia position opposing the AUKUS defense pact that will send nuclear-powered submarines to Australia. Third, it includes China\u2019s endorsement for Russia\u2019s proposed \u201clong-term, legally binding security guarantees\u201d in Europe.\u00a0<strong>Taken together, the repositioning represents \u201cChina becoming a global security actor in a way which I personally have not seen them do before,\u201d<\/strong>\u00a0said Rudd.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>Hadley noted that, contrary to public perception, the countries claim they are supporters of the international order as defined by the United Nations and even claim that they are democratic. \u201cIt shows the power of the democratic principle, that even Russia and China have to say that they embrace it,\u201d he explained, arguing that\u00a0<strong>while they certainly have \u201ca different definition of democracy\u201d than the West, they don\u2019t plug authoritarianism as the new or better global model.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>While the partnership has \u201cgood running room,\u201d according to Hadley, China and Russia are going to \u201cbump up against ultimately some constraints\u201d over the Arctic, Central Asia, and nuclear capability, where their interests conflict. Rudd agreed but warned that it would be wrong to \u201cassume that this will not get bigger and broader in scope over time,\u201d and that it \u201cbehooves\u201d the West to \u201csee this as being enduring and consequential\u201d for foreign policy.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<section id=\"responsive-spacer-block_6205a9cebfd6b\" class=\"gta-spacer gutenblock gutenblock--responsive-spacer responsive-spacer  extra-small\"><\/section>\n<h4 id=\"reading-the-ukraine-tea-leaves\"><strong>Reading the Ukraine tea leaves<\/strong><\/h4>\n<section id=\"responsive-spacer-block_6205a9d3bfd6c\" class=\"gta-spacer gutenblock gutenblock--responsive-spacer responsive-spacer  extra-small\"><\/section>\n<ul>\n<li>Hadley believes that\u00a0<strong>if Russia were to invade Ukraine, \u201cChina will not formally endorse it\u201d<\/strong>\u00a0because it recognizes the Ukrainian government and largely opposes foreign interventions. But Hadley predicted that in such a scenario\u00a0<strong>China would \u201cblame the United States and blame the West for provoking it and for failing to take into account Russia\u2019s legitimate security interests.\u201d<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>And if the United States and Europe slap on sanctions, Hadley said that China will likely help Russia \u201ccircumvent or avoid or overcome\u201d them. Rudd agreed, saying that Putin\u2019s \u201cprincipal concern with China\u201d is to build financial support and access to financial markets if it is removed from the SWIFT international banking transaction system.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>Hadley gave the Biden administration credit for \u201cbeing very public about what Putin is doing\u201d and for \u201cthe way [it] rallied the allies.\u201d But he wished the United States \u201chad left more ambiguity\u201d about the possibility of a military response for Ukraine. He also said he thought the United States \u201cshould have moved heavier equipment [into Eastern Europe] earlier.\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>Is a Russian invasion even likely? \u201cPutin is not a bluffer,\u201d Hadley said. \u201cHe may gradually pull back, but he\u2019s pretty far out on this one.\u201d Hadley added that the sheer magnitude of Russia\u2019s troop movements makes it \u201cvery difficult for [Putin] to back down.\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<section id=\"responsive-spacer-block_6205a9eebfd6e\" class=\"gta-spacer gutenblock gutenblock--responsive-spacer responsive-spacer  extra-small\"><\/section>\n<h4 id=\"tracking-taiwan\"><strong>Tracking Taiwan<\/strong><\/h4>\n<section id=\"responsive-spacer-block_6205a9e9bfd6d\" class=\"gta-spacer gutenblock gutenblock--responsive-spacer responsive-spacer  extra-small\"><\/section>\n<ul>\n<li>Rudd noted that China is \u201cnot looking to Ukraine for\u2026 a template\u201d of what it can achieve in Taiwan.\u00a0<strong>\u201cWe shouldn\u2019t overread the significance of [US] actions or non-actions vis-\u00e0-vis the Ukraine scenarios,\u201d in Xi\u2019s calculations on Taiwan.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>China will wait until \u201cthey nationally believe they are militarily ready,\u201d Rudd said, which would require the People\u2019s Liberation Army to certify to Xi that its forces will defeat the US and Taiwanese militaries in a Taiwan crisis in which Washington intervenes. \u201cProbable is not a word that Xi Jinping wants to hear,\u201d Rudd said. \u201cHe wants to hear \u2018definitely win.\u2019\u201d According to Rudd,\u00a0<strong>that isn\u2019t likely in the next year or even decade: It \u201clies in the 2030s.\u201d\u00a0<\/strong>Until then, China will be watching global crises like the one over Ukraine to update their analysis about American power, and Rudd added that he was concerned about \u201cthe aggregation of any perception of American lack of strategic resolve long-term.\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<section id=\"responsive-spacer-block_6205a9f4bfd6f\" class=\"gta-spacer gutenblock gutenblock--responsive-spacer responsive-spacer  extra-small\"><\/section>\n<h4 id=\"friends-and-foes\"><strong>Friends and foes<\/strong><\/h4>\n<section id=\"responsive-spacer-block_6205a9f8bfd70\" class=\"gta-spacer gutenblock gutenblock--responsive-spacer responsive-spacer  extra-small\"><\/section>\n<ul>\n<li>Hadley explained that\u00a0<strong>when Russia invaded Georgia in 2008, the view in the George W. Bush administration was: \u201ctomorrow will be Ukraine, and the day after it will be the Baltic States.\u201d So \u201cwe threw US-Russia relations in the toilet,\u201d<\/strong>\u00a0he added. Now, Russia and China \u201chave a better relationship with each other than either of them has with the United States. And that is our problem.\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>But that isn\u2019t attributable to anything the United States did, Hadley argued. \u201cWhat really brings them together is a common threat not by what America did, but in some sense what America is. Their narrative is [that] the United States does not accept the legitimacy of either regime\u2026 and that they need to resist America and its democratic proselytization.\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>While addressing these strategically aligned partners, the United States will have to be wary of \u201cthe real challenge,\u201d as Hadley put it: Overstretching. \u201cIf we have to be engaged in a substantial way\u201d in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, \u201cthe only way we\u2019re going to manage is to do it with friends and allies,\u201d he said.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Read the original article on the site of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.atlanticcouncil.org\/blogs\/new-atlanticist\/what-will-china-do-if-russia-escalates-in-ukraine\/\">Atlantic Council<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>New Atlanticist,\u00a0February 10, 2022 By\u00a0Katherine Walla There\u2019s been a \u201cquantum shift\u201d in the relationship between the world\u2019s two largest authoritarian powers, said former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd. The shift<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":14913,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[23],"tags":[153],"class_list":["post-14971","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-room","tag-153"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14971","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14971"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14971\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/14913"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14971"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14971"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.worldpolicyconference.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14971"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}