<\/p>\n
Former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has issued a stark warning over the prospect of\u00a0China\u00a0invading\u00a0Taiwan\u00a0and said the West could be ‘sleepwalking into war’ with the communist state.<\/p>\n
Mr Rudd said few in the West realise how much Chinese leader\u00a0Xi Jinping\u00a0covets the return of the island nation of Taiwan to mainland control.<\/p>\n
‘It’s right up there next to Xi Jinping’s desire for the party to remain in power and for him to be the predominant leader within the Communist Party of China,’ Mr Rudd told ABC’s 7.30 program on Wednesday.<\/p>\n
He also said that in the event of a war with the West, a Chinese pre-emptive strike would try to take out American forces in the US-controlled island of Guam and in\u00a0Japan.<\/p>\n
Mr Rudd said the only things stopping China from invading Taiwan are questions of militaristic dominance and avoiding the crippling sanctions that have been imposed on Russia following the invasion of Ukraine.<\/p>\n
‘There has been a little too much excited commentary in the West about how China will seize on this strategic opportunity to move on Taiwan. I don’t think that’s the case,’ he said.<\/p>\n
But Mr Rudd warned that ‘the balance of power continues to change in China’s favour, both militarily and economically, so that shifts this dynamic.’<\/p>\n
The former Prime Minister said the US military has done extensive war game modelling on how a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would turn, and it shows China would come out on top, but barely.<\/p>\n
‘In most of the war gaming which has been done so far \u2013 and these are desktop exercises by and large \u2013 if you look at what various US officials have said off the record and partly reported in the American media, the Chinese at this stage win most of the time,’ he said.<\/p>\n
Mr Rudd added that all parties are closely watching what is happening in Ukraine.<\/p>\n
‘Taiwanese, for the first time in a very long time, I think, are now readdressing their national defence idea needs and I think they will be looking very carefully at the fight which the Ukrainians have put up against Russia,’ he said.<\/p>\n
He added that Russia’s ‘blitzkrieg’ invasion of Ukraine by land had stalled. In comparison, he said an invasion of Taiwan would be largely conducted by sea.<\/p>\n
Mr Rudd said Australia’s role should be to encourage the US and other allies towards deterrence of any military conflict.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n ‘Australia is a treaty ally of the United States. So our job as a treaty ally, in my judgement, is to argue strongly and effectively with the United States, two things.<\/p>\n ‘One is how to maximise the deterrent effect of US military posture, but also the pan-allied military posture as well. The Japanese, the Republic of Korea, Australia, together with our new quad partner in India.<\/p>\n ‘And I think the second is this, to urge upon the Americans a stabilising mechanism for the bilateral US-China relationship … to prevent what I would describe as \u00ab\u00a0sleepwalking into war\u00a0\u00bb.’<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n Mr Rudd also warned that any war between the US and China would also result in a direct Chinese attack on Japan.<\/p>\n ‘A Chinese pre-emptive strike would try to take out American forces, probably in Guam (a US overseas territory in the Western Pacific), but also in Okinawa (Japan, where the US has a huge military base), and that brings Japan in.’<\/p>\n