ENTRETIEN – Dans son indice de la bonne gouvernance, l’organisation fondée par le milliardaire anglo-soudanais fait le constat d’« un recul généralisé de la démocratie » et d’une « situation sécuritaire de plus en plus tendue ». Au cours de la décennie 2012-2021, le continent est devenu moins sûr et moins démocratique. Et même dans les pays dits « performants », il y a parfois aussi des surprises.

ARTICLE – A Lebanese media outlet reported last week that contact had been lost with a boat carrying 250 migrants soon after it left the shores of the city of Tripoli. This came just three weeks after a boat sank while trying to make the trip across the Mediterranean to Europe. Luckily, the armed forces were able to rescue most of the passengers in the latest incident. However, illegal migration has become a chronic problem. The catastrophic situation in Lebanon will be the source of a new wave of refugees to Europe. As much as the international community tries to help Lebanon, there is no alternative to a functioning government.

Today, Europe cannot handle another wave of refugees. It is already struggling with Ukrainian refugees and there are no clear signs that the end of the war is nearing. Hence, it is in Europe’s interest to have a stable Lebanon, with an economy that can cater to the needs of the country’s residents and ensure they do not venture to the sea.

Nongovernmental organizations are very active in Lebanon, but their work is full of inefficiencies as they cannot replace a state. They help in terms of emergency responses, but it is very difficult for them to conduct the real development the country needs in the absence of a functioning state. For people to stay in Lebanon, they need to have work. How can an NGO help people in their livelihoods on a sustainable basis?

It is very simple. If Europe wants to spare itself the hassle of accommodating a new wave of refugees, it needs to push for a functioning state in Lebanon. However, there is no way to do that unless pressure is applied on the regime’s gatekeepers. Unless they are coerced into accepting reforms, they will not carry them out. Popular pressure by itself is not enough. The protests that erupted in 2019 did not make them blink. Elections did not make them go away, as they still control people’s livelihoods by controlling the so-called state and its so-called institutions. Hence, they have access to any services citizens seek to get from the state.

The West, Arab states and the wider international community accommodated the corrupt system for a long time. Now, they realize this is not sustainable. Saudi Arabia, which has always been very generous with aid, has announced that it will not send money to any country unless it conducts reforms.

And, for a change, the Europeans have altered their style and are adopting a more assertive attitude. They have sent investigators to Lebanon who have been digging in the files and questioning officials as part of the central bank anti-corruption investigation. One of central bank governor Riad Salameh’s main brokers, Nabil Aoun, decided to give his testimony in Luxembourg. Does that mean he has accepted a plea deal? Probably, but we are not sure.

[…]

Read the full article written by Dania Koleilat Khatib on Arab News.

ARTICLE – De nouvelles sanctions contre l’Iran ont été adoptées, lundi, par les ministres des Affaires étrangères de l’Union européenne, a déclaré la présidence suédoise de l’UE. Plusieurs responsables des Gardiens de la Révolution islamique font partie des personnes sanctionnées pour violations des droits de l’Homme.

Retrouvez l’article en entier sur France 24.

ARTICLE – What would a common currency mean for Brazil and Argentina?

Brazil and Argentina are expected to announce preliminary plans about a common currency this week. The two countries are now politically aligned, following the recent election of Brazil’s former president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil. This could set the stage for another major currency bloc, with the eurozone serving as both a blueprint and a cautionary tale.

The idea of having Brazil and Argentina go in on a common currency is raising the same question in many corners right now.

“My initial reaction was, ‘Why do this?’” said Bipan Rai, global head of foreign currency exchange strategy at CIBC.

That’s especially the case for Brazil, he said. “Argentina historically has been a pretty unstable environment for currencies. In fact, they’ve had to introduce new currency quite frequently throughout its history.”

Argentina’s currency woes are still pressing. Last year, its inflation rate hit a three-decade record of 95%. The attraction may come down to influence for Brazil, Rai said.

“It would give them the same sort of clout that Germany might have over a peripheral country in the eurozone,” he said, adding that Brazil’s economy is much larger than Argentina’s, and it wants to solidify its position as a regional powerhouse.

Brazil may also be concerned about Argentina deepening economic ties with other countries, said Susan Pozo, an economics professor at Western Michigan University.

“They may want to forge ahead in terms of linking themselves more closely to Argentina,” she said.

Having a common currency could also ease trade between the two countries. “Trade across borders can be much more expensive when you have to think about exchange rates and potential changes in exchange rates,” she said.

[…]

Read the entire article on Marketplace.

COMMENT – Global economic winds are shifting, and not necessarily in the way most people expect.

We are living in a time of immense geopolitical shifts. This is not surprising, as change is a normal occurrence. However, there are periods when changes take place more rapidly and on a larger scale.

Shifts in geopolitics can be driven by a variety of factors, including technological, demographic, and environmental developments, as well as political movements and changes in society. While single incidents can trigger large disruptions, they often result from these factors accumulating over time. Such disruptions can be exacerbated when politicians block developments in the interest of maintaining the illusion of stability and security.

It is widely acknowledged that the world is becoming multipolar politically. The West aims to defend the so-called “rule-based liberal world order,” which requires a “protecting power.” Historically, this role has been held by the United States since World War II, and after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the U.S. remained the dominant hegemon.

This system is now being challenged, particularly by China and Russia, but also by countries in the Global South who no longer want to be dominated, even by friendly democracies in the Northern Hemisphere. A real systemic and hegemonic conflict has arisen between China and the West.

[…]

Read the comment written by Prince Michael of Liechtenstein on GIS Reports.

ENTRETIEN – Face à la flambée du prix des carburants, Philippe Chalmin, professeur à l’Université ParisDauphine et spécialiste de l’énergie, décrypte les chiffres.

Retrouvez l’intervention de Philippe Chalmin sur BFM avec RMC.

ENTRETIEN – À l’occasion de la parution de son nouveau livre, nous rencontrons Olivier Blanchard, Senior Fellow au Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE). Pour l’ancien chef économiste du FMI, la période de remontée des taux d’intérêt ne durera pas. Il faudra compter pour longtemps dans un univers marqué par les taux bas. Dans ce « monde à l’envers », il devient impératif de réinventer des solutions qui articulent les politiques budgétaires aux politiques monétaires.

Votre livre, Fiscal Policy under Low Interest Rates, vient de paraître. Si nous revenons sur ce qui vous a mené à ce sujet, y a-t-il eu un basculement dans votre réflexion sur les questions budgétaires lors de votre passage au Fonds monétaire international, et notamment lors de l’épisode de la crise grecque et du plan de soutien ? 

Oui, ma pensée a évolué au cours du temps. Je prends un exemple. Quand je suis arrivé au FMI, en 2008, j’étais très inquiet de la taille de la dette publique japonaise, très élevée déjà à ce moment-là. Je pensais qu’il n’était pas possible qu’ils arrivent à la soutenir et qu’il y aurait des problèmes. Durant les six premiers mois, j’ai dit à Dominique Strauss-Kahn, le Directeur général du Fonds monétaire international à l’époque, qu’il y avait un vrai problème au Japon. Finalement, il ne s’est rien passé, il n’y a pas eu de catastrophe — pas de ce côté-là et pas pour le moment en tout cas. Ça m’a forcé à remettre en cause ce que je pensais sur le rôle et les dangers de la dette.

Dans un texte publié en 2013 vous disiez déjà que peut-être le FMI et plus largement la communauté des économistes avaient commis une erreur dans l’appréciation des multiplicateurs budgétaires dans des situations de crise et de récession…

D’un côté, j’avais pris conscience que les taux d’intérêts évoluaient à la baisse depuis les années 1980 de manière presque séculaire. Dans ce contexte de taux faibles, la dette était moins dangereuse que la perception que j’avais pu en avoir auparavant.

[…]

Retrouvez l’entretien complet avec Olivier Blanchard sur le site du Grand Continent.

What impact will the recent completion of China’s space station Tiangong (“heavenly palace”) have on the new space race?

Space exploration has been an arena of competition and speculation among the major powers. The Cold War saw a fierce space race between the United States and the Soviet Union in satellite launches, manned space flights, and lunar exploration.

In contrast, the International Space Station (ISS) was a collaboration project between the US, Japan, and European countries. It began construction in 1998 under the leadership of the US and became a shining symbol of international cooperation. Russia also joined the project after the Cold War ended.

Much has been achieved aboard the ISS. For instance, new drugs and medical care for the elderly have been developed by conducting experiments in an environment vastly different from that of the earth, including microgravity, high-intensity solar energy, and cosmic radiation.

Furthermore, various research led by participating countries has led to innovations to improve life in space and on earth. ISS operations are expected to be extended from the original 2024 to 2030.

The Symbolism of Space Exploration

Kazuto Suzuki, a professor of science and technology policy at the Graduate School of Public Policy at the University of Tokyo shares his insight into national space policies. He explains, “Much of what happens in space exploration is about symbolic meaning. There won’t be any substantial changes even if ISS operations were to cease.”

[…]

Read the entire article on Japan Forward.

A conversation with Nardos Bekele-Thomas

TRIBUNE – Maurice Gourdault-Montagne, ancien ambassadeur de France en Allemagne, lance, avec notamment Matthias Fekl, Hélène Miard-Delacroix et François Villeroy de Galhau une académie franco-allemande de Paris qui réunira universitaires, chefs d’entreprise et hauts fonctionnaires pour célébrer l’amitié germano-française.

How can France still shape the world?

A debate in Paris revealed the attitudes of a certain French elite in search of lost influence

The cream of the French upper class packed into a ballroom at the Cercle de l’Union Interallié, next door to the British ambassador’s residence in the rue du Faubourg Saint-Honoré, on Monday evening to consider the question, “What remains of French influence?”

The two-hour discussion by former foreign minister Hubert Védrine and Renaud Girard, a foreign correspondent and columnist for the conservative newspaper Le Figaro, revealed the attitudes of a certain elite.

Védrine’s advice is valued by French business executives and politicians, including, it is said, by President Emmanuel Macron. His scathing remarks about naive “européistes” and “human rights-ism” have earned him a reputation as a cynic, but his books on geopolitical strategy sell tens of thousands of copies.

Girard laced his commentary with historical references and anecdotes from his years as a war correspondent. He credited Védrine with having invented Gaullo-Mitterrandisme, a philosophy that reconciles the two main families of post-second World War French politics.

Védrine pointed out that French influence today is greater than it was after defeat by Germany in 1940, or the loss of Dien Bien Phu in 1958, a decisive moment in the first Indochina War.

[…]

Read the entire article on The Irish Times website.

La Chine est devenue en deux décennies le premier partenaire du continent africain, comme l’a illustré la tournée d’une semaine du ministre chinois des Affaires étrangères. Entretien avec Jean-Pierre Cabestan, directeur de recherche au CNRS et chercheur associé à Asia Centre.

Retrouvez l’entretien avec Jean-Pierre Cabestan sur le site de RFI.

China’s future ‘still uncertain’, Kevin Rudd says, as he casts doubt on its economic figures

London: Former prime minister Kevin Rudd has questioned whether China’s economic growth figures reported for 2022 are accurate.

China reported that its annual gross domestic product growth slumped from 8 per cent to 3 per cent last year.

Nous sommes rentrés dans une phase chronique qui nous force à chercher à mettre en place une stratégie raisonnée, s’appuyant sur une réduction assumée des risques.

«Le monde n’a jamais été dans une meilleure position pour mettre fin à la pandémie. Nous n’y sommes pas encore, mais la fin est à portée de main. Nous pouvons tous voir la ligne d’arrivée, nous sommes en passe de gagner, mais ce serait vraiment le plus mauvais moment pour s’arrêter de courir. C’est le moment de redoubler d’efforts et de nous assurer de franchir la ligne d’arrivée et de récolter les fruits de notre labeur.»

Ces mots, prononcés mi-septembre par Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, directeur général de l’Organisation mondiale de la santé (OMS), ont eu tôt fait d’être analysés comme signifiant que la pandémie de Covid-19 touchait à sa fin. Ils étaient certes porteurs d’espoir, mais la ligne d’arrivée peine quand même à poindre à l’horizon.

De la même manière, lorsque le virologue allemand Christian Drosten a déclaré fin décembre que, selon lui, la pandémie était terminée et que l’on entrait désormais dans sa phase endémique, il y avait sans doute des franches nuances à apporter à cette assertion un peu définitive.

Retrouvez l’article entier écrit par Antoine Flahault sur Slate FR.

A “geopolitical EU” is not a theory, but a set of assumptions as well as a more realistic vision of the world. In dealing with Russia’s war against Ukraine, it already has brought impressive results.

Coming from the academic world, I understand the desire to question the meaning political actors give to their ideas. The idea of a “geopolitical Europe” is one of them. That is what Hans Kundnani tried to do in a very succinct way in his article “Europe’s Geopolitical Confusion.” His conclusion is that the concept is fuzzy and not well defined. So let me question that conclusion, with which I strongly disagree.

Yes, “Geopolitical Europe” (GE) is certainly not a theory. Nevertheless, it is a set of assumptions that have dramatically affected European Union thinking and behavior since 2020. So, let me define briefly what GE means and what it entails.

Read the entire article written by Zaki Laïdi on Internationale Politik Quarterly.