14:30 – 15:30 | Opening session
H.S.H. Prince Albert II
Sovereign Prince of Monaco
Democracy cannot be imposed but must be built progressively according to each State’s history.
Thierry de Montbrial
President and founder of the WPC
Regardless of whether today’s international system be described as zero-polar, bipolar or multipolar, the simple reality is that the most powerful states no longer wish or are no longer capable of exercising their power. It is, in my view, more constructive to focus on the ‘middle powers’.
Introduction by Thierry de Montbrial
Deputy Prime Minister of the Republic of Turkey
For many of our domestic reform efforts, the European Union has been a key external anchor. The standards, benchmarks and criteria that the European Union has for incoming countries are very important for us because it is a measure of quality of our reform efforts.
15:30 – 17:00 | Plenary session 1
“The state of the world economy and global governance”
Introduction by Nicolas Barré
We need to pay more attention to income distribution, to how growth is taking place and to how it is spreading through societies.
Henri de Castries
We are probably seeing the end to the Westphalian states. Classical borders are becoming irrelevant in more and more areas.
The world’s centre of gravity has moved and that businessmen and entrepreneurs were able to recognise and seize these opportunities.
David de Rothschild
In 2014, there will be another round of stress tests and there will be another asset‑quality review. Therefore, I think that by the end of 2014, we will have a fairly stable environment in all this.
The G20 should have more frequent and structured meetings for finance deputies, finance ministers and Sherpas before the Summit. Leaders’ time is the scarcest resource in the world, so they cannot meet often.
We need to de‑monopolise international governance from the Westphalian system, from sovereign nation states. We need to look at greater diversity of public institutions.
17:00 – 17:45 | Plenary session 2
Mohammad Javad Zarif
We should never forget that trust is a two-way street. Today’s regional and international crises require every one of us to have a sense of responsibility and to cooperate with one other to rebuild peace and stability.
Debate with Ali Ahani
Ambassador of Islamic Republic of Iran to France and to Monaco
17:45 – 19:15 | Plenary session 3
Introduction by Steven Erlanger
There has to be a focus on trying to give young people in particular some hope by giving them opportunities for employment in the short term. That means reallocating some spending towards job creation.
I believe that our leaders have not grasped the fact that in Syria, a very deep and profound fracture has existed for a very long time between a party that I would describe as secular and a Muslim Brotherhood party.
The djihadists’ best ally is the violence that was introduced by al-Assad. The djihadists’ best ally today is the chaos created by the regime.
For Egypt to advance, it has to go back to the slogan of the 1920s, which was ‘Religion is for God and the homeland is for all’. Otherwise, there is no future.
Russia’s experience with Iranians has shown that they have been acting very constructively in calming crises in the former Soviet Central Asia and quite responsibly in calming crises in the Caucuses, including in Chechnya and elsewhere.
I believe that Europe must return, that Europe must abandon its navel-gazing and start to assert itself in the world again.
19:15 | Welcome cocktail
20:00 | Dinner debate
With Herman Van Rompuy
President of the European Council
The simple idea that people should have a say in their own governance has achieved a near universal status, and more of the world’s population lives in democratic countries than ever before in the history of the mankind.
08:00 – 09:45 | Plenary session 4
“Asia’s strengths and weaknesses”
Introduction by Michael Yeoh
Asia is rising and what is very interesting to see is the development of the cities in Asia. I think the most important trend in Asia today is harmonisation.
Jin Roy Ryu
I think one of Asia’s weaknesses is that Asia does not have a strong leader or control tower like the United States in the Americas.
Mr. Abe has put forward the case to the people that we should not have to be bogged down in deflationary mind-set and that we can change the economic environment and the outlook for the future by inflation target setting.
Mayankote Kelath Narayanan
There exist two Asias today – both competing for space and attention. Economically, we have a dynamic, and to an extent, integrated Asia. In security terms, there is another Asia that appears dysfunctional, buffeted by powerful nationalisms and prone to irredentism.
Any diplomatic process is therefore only a tool to hedge risks by stopping North Korea from improving its nuclear arsenal and preventing nuclear proliferation. The basic underlying theory of the Russian policy of maintenance is the need for peaceful coexistence in the Korean Peninsula.
Strength lies in the open regionalism. Looking around the world it is only in Asia where regionalism is open.
09:45 – 11:15 | Plenary session 5
“The challenges of the cyberspace”
The main challenge of the infosphere is the discontinuity between the majesty of international governance and the way technical innovation blossoms.
Interactions will be machine to machine. Society might prevail. We must be prepared for an end-to-end and machine-to-machine society.
Having technology is not enough. There are many, many things that can cause damage in a surprising way if somebody decides to attack you. It is not enough therefore to have technology. You need to have the right warriors.
A big battle ahead is going to be over whether we keep a global Internet and an open governance system or whether the Internet becomes balkanised. We will either have an open, transparent and dynamic Internet in the future or a closed, controlled and static one.
11:15 – 11:45 | Coffee-break
11:45 – 13:00 | Plenary session 6
“Whither the ‘European social model’?”
Introduction by Jim Hoagland
We need to improve our tax systems to be consistent with both growth and the need to fund the welfare state, our social policies and the social model.
Europe also has to be especially aware that, as the recent PISA report made clear, skills are the currency of the 21st Century and investments in social resiliency are therefore more important for Europe than investments in security.
Instead of having to bet on the future growth rate and to tell people a definite figure which they will expect to get, it should be recognised that the ability to provide pensions is linked to the performance of the economy.
I think one-third of the next European Parliament could be comprised of Eurosceptics and populists who are against the European Union. If we do not take care of these issues at the European level we will have more and more difficulties. We need to politicise the European debate.
13:15 – 14:45 | Lunch debate
“The future of diplomacy”
Introduction by Jim Hoagland
Hubert Védrine – Part 1
To me, the real question of diplomacy tomorrow and the day after tomorrow is, how can diplomacy be conducted in age that believes in transparency?
Carl Bildt – Part 1
We feel the pulse of the world much more clearly and we can impact the pulse of the world more effectively with the new technologies.
Hubert Védrine – Part 2
I think there needs to be an almost philosophical shift in civilisation by saying, “There are some cases when secrets, or the length of time a secret is kept, or conditions of secrecy, are justified.”
Carl Bildt – Part 2
There now needs to be a kind of congruence between public diplomacy and the public image and the secret details and secret mechanics.
15:00 – 16:15 | Plenary session 7
“Destruction or metamorphosis of the legal order?”
‘Coordinated sovereignism’ means that the separation of national orders would be gradually broken down by the circulation of norms and dialogue between judges, which would replace separation with coordination.
There must be a common rule that every country can follow. There’s a concept in law called comity that requires harmony. Easier said than done.
I have no sense at all that the United Kingdom’s legal system or we, its common lawyers, judges and courts, are about to be over-whelmed or lose our identity in the face of any outside threat.
I do not give much credence to the destruction theory in the sense of a collapse in juridical orders. Globalisation lays claim to just as many juridical rules as it seeks to topple, if not the reverse, and these rules must be able to find expression in juridical systems.
16:30 – 19:30 | Parallel workshops
Workshop #1 – Energy and environment
Introduction by Christophe de Margerie
Maria van der Hoeven
At the global level we can see that the industrial sector is responsible for 37% of all energy savings in one of our new policy scenarios relative to the current policy scenarios, followed by transport at 31% and buildings at 26%.
Any energy industry has to satisfy what we called then our “four As” criteria. First, energy has to be available; second, accessible; third, never forget that, affordable; and, fourth, it also has to be acceptable.
The US is on its way to energy, oil and gas self-sufficiency. I advisedly do not use the term ‘energy independence’.
We need a smarter approach to do so, as well as a broader scope that features not only domestic but also global mitigation and a longer-term horizon with innovation.
We are talking to our first clients in Europe and I can tell you that our biggest challenge is not technical. It is political and regulatory. The regulations are just not set up to transport electricity over long distances.
Conclusion by Christophe de Margerie
Workshop #2 – The health and emerging risks
Introduction by James D. Wolfensohn
We must understand that we will never have an end of infectious disease. We have a reservoir of disease that is endless. The point is not to dream of suppressing infectious disease; the point is to adjust the follow-up and global governance of this problem.
With modern technology and information and trade in weapons, we see increasingly that conflicts which historically would have been localised take on international significance.
It is good for citizens to be stimulated, even assisted to become more self-reliant. However, the optimal solution cannot be by resorting to social Darwinism.
There is an enormous resource of mental capital in older people that simply goes to waste. It goes to waste because policies do not recognise how important it is to keep this mental capital engaged in society.
James D. Wolfensohn
The issues of healthcare, which comes up with this, and of paying pensions to the aged just distorts the systems that we have had up to now. Nowhere is this more critical than in the USA at this time, but it will be a global issue.
Workshop #3 – Food security
Introduction by Jean-Yves Carfantan
José Graziano Da Silva
Today, an estimated 840 million people suffer from chronic hunger and another 2 billion people suffer from micronutrient deficiencies. 26% of the world’s children are stunted. Malnutrition costs around 5% of the value of global growth domestic product.
There should be increased attention to risk management and greater resilience, and the policy incentives we have should be shifted to promoting triple wins, that is, more productivity, better resilience and mitigation all at the same time.
Good policies for me are related to land property rights – which are extremely important in many countries – technology, productivity, gains in scale, and integration into food chains.
The State alone, with all the good will in the world, cannot guarantee food security. In addition, civil society, which has a key role to play, but also and above all the private sector, must become increasingly involved.
African governments are not investing enough in African agriculture.
There are a lot of ways to do agriculture and have agricultural growth but not necessarily benefit smallholders or drive improvements in food security. That is our agenda, to try to find the opportunity to work with businesses when there is overlap with social goals and objectives.
Workshop #4 – Finance
Introduction by Jean-Claude Trichet
After all, one of the key problems highlighted by the crisis was not so much the details of regulation, but that many systemically-important institutions lay outside the regulatory framework.
We need something that could be called governance; that is for something above the level of the nation state, for some attempt to either cooperate among national authorities or to create a supra-national entity that could try to deal with some of these cross-border externalities.
We need to make the single supervisory mechanism work in a way which is genuinely European, so we want the supervisory board not to be a committee of national supervisors but to become a European institution as part of the ECB.
We know from our own experience that if there is to be a real banking union the banks should be European, not national, but this is not easy.
Since the Central Bank must have the capabilities to respond very promptly to new developments, and since it must have timely and reliable information about the banking sector, it stands to reason that the responsibility for bank supervision should rest within the Central Bank.
The imminent US Fed’s tapering QE should be brought to the G20 process, more specifically, the G20’s MAP.
19:30 | Cocktail
20:30 | Gala dinner
Introduction by Thierry de Montbrial
Minister of Foreign Affairs of France
I personally do not think that China is becoming a warmonger. But it is a major power and a string of tensions could arise in the region in 2014. France will always work toward peace and security.
08:00 – 09:00 | Reports from parallel workshops
The world energy mix was made of 82% of fossil fuels thirty years ago; this figure remains the same today, and will decrease only to 75% in 2035. The real revolution will be to reach a truly different energy mix.
Democratic political systems these days have great difficulty making forward-looking decisions that would head off serious risks in the future, so we are likely to be confronted with shocks which we are not well-situated to handle, especially in the financial area.
We need a climate smart agriculture that improves crop yields and livestock management to increase production, increases climate resilience of farming systems, reduces carbon emissions and increases soil carbon storage.
There is now a clearly greater role for the emerging markets in dealing with these global macroeconomic and financial problems, and there is more global recognition of the need for further cooperation.
09:00 – 10:00 | Plenary session 8
“Towards a European Banking Union”
Introduction by Alessandro Merli
Benoît Coeuré – Part 1
We need supervisors to have a European mandate instead of a national mandate, and that is why we have a single supervisory mechanism; we also need European banks to be in the hands of a European resolution authority when they are wound up, and that is also why we need a single resolution mechanism.
Philipp Hildebrand – Part 1
It seems that something separate is going on, namely a fundamental reassessment of the risks in the European banking system,
Constantin von Oesterreich – Part 1
Many important milestones have been reached on the way to the banking union, but implementation and execution are now the name of the game, and we are very much looking forward to getting a lot of engagement.
Benoît Coeuré – Part 2
The asset quality review and the comprehensive assessment are the occasion for bringing them together, so it not only serves a stabilisation function, but also a macroeconomic function, in a sense, which is to recreate trust in the European banking system.
Philipp Hildebrand – Part 2
Transparency will be a key part of this and will entail clear explanations of what monetary, stabilisation, regulatory and liquidity policies are, and we must try to separate these policies to the extent we can.
Benoît Coeuré – Part 3
Banking supervisors should be accountable to parliaments and the general public. That is why we will have this supervisory board and the chair of the board.
Constantin von Oesterreich – Part 2
Banks which are large enough to be in it cannot get out, and smaller banks are in it for specific reasons, so there is a level playing field
Philipp Hildebrand – Part 3
Make sure the banks have sufficient capital so the uncertainties can be removed from the marketplace and they can start lending again. That will clearly be the key element from the macroeconomic perspective.
Benoît Coeuré – Part 4
The single supervisory mechanism will aim to avoid the kind of negative feedback through banks we have seen in banks in some countries and that ultimately led to a need for financial assistance. Therefore, good single supervision is a protection for taxpayers.
Remarks from the panelists
10:00 – 10:45 | Plenary session 9
H.R.H. Prince Turki Al Faisal
Chairman of the King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies (KFCRIS)
The problem in Syria today is not only a tragedy, but is an act of negligence on the part of the world, which continues to watch the suffering of the Syrian people without taking steps to stop that suffering. It almost reaches the level of being criminal negligence on the part of the world community.
10:45 – 11:15 | Coffee-break
11:15 – 12:00 | Plenary session 10
President of the Israel Institute, Distinguished Global Professor at New York University (NYU), Distinguished Fellow at the Brookings Institution and Professor Emeritus, Tel Aviv University
Demographically speaking, we are risking the future of the state as a Jewish state, and in terms of Israel’s international standing, we see a creeping delegitimisation, and these are two very dangerous developments for us.
12h00 – 13h30 | Plenary session 11
Introduction by Jean-Michel Severino
The African Union is willing to take responsibility for its own security issues, a job that is incumbent upon Africans. Europe needs to help Africa fulfil this desire.
Some fragmentation is taking place in this new world, though I do not know why it has expressed itself in a more civilised and peaceful way through the ballot box in Europe, while sometimes it takes on a violent aspect in Africa.
As far as Somalia is concerned, Ethiopia and Kenya not only need to go into Somalia militarily, but also to do as much as they can to help to develop the human capacity to govern that country, because if you do not have a stable Somalia you will not have a stable Kenya or Ethiopia.
China’s noninterference policy does not mean indifference, that China needs the stability of Africa and that China is proceeding to improve the stability in promoting social and economic development instead of imposing its social model.
Too many policies and too many business strategies disconnect the north of Africa from sub-Saharan Africa. Let us keep in mind that ten out of 22 Arab countries are in Africa, and some geopoliticians do not take that very much into consideration.
I am arguing for the normalisation of Africa, so that people start treating it like any other place in the world, and if we get that we will be absolutely fine.
Rates of return on capital are higher in Africa than on all the other continents. This means the misperception is not thinking that Africa is below average, it’s not knowing that Africa is above average.
Conclusion by Jean-Michel Severino
13:30 – 15:15 | Lunch debate
Introduction by Thierry de Montbrial
Prime Minister of Quebec
In its political expression of Francophone expression in America, the State of Quebec is attempting to come to terms with the challenges as well as the advantages that arise from its status as a nation.
15:30 – 16:45 | Plenary session 12
“Politics and religions”
Introduction by Pierre Morel
Contrary to what some may think, the politics of the 21st century are not determined by religion. On the contrary, politics has the upper hand over religion, transforming it into an instrument for its own use.
And for the first time in centuries, we will have not only geoeconomic, geopolitical, technological and military competitors, we will have a formidable competitor whom we must treat with respect, because these are cultures and traditions which are so ancient that they deserve our respect
We learned, and are still learning to oppose a notion of diversity that becomes a substitute for neighborhood and community. Diversity without a spirit of community leads to tribalism. Community without a spirit of diversity leads to alienation for all minorities.
Religious leaders are in positions that represent the identities of the peoples, the belonging of the peoples, and if you do not address this issue of identity and belonging, it will come back to haunt you.
Faisal Bin Muaammar
Religious leaders need to be careful how they relate to politics, but political leaders also need to be careful how they relate to religion.
Marcelo Sanchez Sorondo
God created Man in the image of God, and so Man must live in a society. It is not only an individual image, it is also a social image.
16:45 – 18:45 | Plenary session 13
Introduction by Dominique Moïsi
Comparing the Balkan region to only 25 years ago, it is almost predictable, which is a fundamental qualitative step forward, because for all we know, tomorrow the region will be part of the European family.
So, we have two Russias at the moment: 20% of the population who want to move forward, to be contemporary and silent majority which is afraid to move forward and to open up.
The American administration has certainly reached out far more toward its adversaries than to some key allies, and that has consequences. It fails to build up a reserve of personal relationships that can be called on in moments of crisis and difficulties.
The Libyan crisis has shown, and it was a wake-up call, how insufficiently Europe was prepared to deal with a world in which America is no longer exactly as available as it was before.
Yusuf Ziya Irbec
We have a very multidimensional culture in Turkey, and politicians should be prepared to understand all the dimensions of Christianity, Judaism, Islam, and all other religious groups. This is the basis for being an efficient leader in Turkey.
Corruption has to be attacked on many fronts, but I just want to leave you with the fact that corruption is much more serious than we acknowledge.
Carlos Pérez Verdía
Just as in the case of North America, Latin America has a lot of other issues and challenges, and the positive thing there with regard to drugs, security and human rights is that we are discussing these at a regional level.
I really worry that France, which already has a problem with its own self-image in the world in a Europe where Germany seems big and powerful, is slipping out of the second tier into the third, and that is the problem.
Conclusion by Dominique Moïsi
19:30 | Informal dinner