ARTICLE – Parmi les signataires, Hubert Védrine, ancien ministre des Affaires étrangères français

Retrouvez l’article en entier dans i24news.

ARTICLE – The changes in policy, politics and personnel revealed by the Chinese Communist Party’s five-yearly congress, which finished in recent days, show just how radically China has changed under Xi Jinping, compared with his predecessors Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao. His audacity is without bounds. Mr. Xi is smashing through long-established political conventions and plain old bureaucratic inertia to achieve his ambitions for both himself and China. Consistent with his deeply-held ideological worldview, Mr. Xi is determined to change the international order in a manner more compatible with Chinese national interests and values. His power to do so, at least within his own system, is now unconstrained.

Take politics. Mr. Xi used the 20th congress to defy a convention that general secretaries limit themselves to two five-year terms. Originally this was introduced to preserve the principles of collective leadership and to prevent a return to Mao Zedong’s practice of lifelong rule. The cult of personality is also back. Mr. Xi has his own body of ideological “thought” much earlier than his predecessors, and it has now been entrenched in the party constitution as “the Marxism of our times”. To further cement loyalty, he has presided over the longest-running anti-corruption campaign in the party’s 100-year history. Partly it has been a mechanism for entrenching political loyalty and control.

Find the article written by Kevin Rudd on Asia Society.

Publié le 10/10/2022

Read the entire article in the Washington Post.

OPINION – Ukraine Is Weakened by Corruption, So How Is It Stymying the Russians?

Corruption undermines society as surely as termites undermine houses. Ukraine suffers from corruption. So how has Ukrainian society nonetheless managed to stymie a Russian invasion, and even turn the tables on its invaders?

I asked experts inside and outside Ukraine for their answers to this pivotal question and heard several interesting theories. The most intriguing is that it’s possible in certain situations to be simultaneously corrupt and patriotic.

Here are some of the explanations:

Ukraine is corrupt, but the enemy is even more corrupt. On Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index, Ukraine was 122nd of 180 countries last year (higher numbers are worse). Pretty bad, but Russia was ranked even worse, at 136th. In May the U.S. State Department said, “While it may be too early to draw definitive conclusions, we have seen open-source reporting about expired rations, lack of fuel and outdated and poorly maintained equipment that point to the waste, misuse and abuse of ‘public’ resources designated for Russia’s military.”

[…]

Ukrainians are rallying around their flag. “Corruption is less because the survival of the nation is at stake,” said Brian Bonner, who was chief editor of The Kyiv Post from 2008 to 2021 and is now an editor at Geopolitical Intelligence Services. “We’re at a higher level of unity and selflessness than I’ve seen since I’ve lived here.” Prince Michael of Liechtenstein, who founded Geopolitical Intelligence Services, agreed: “People stuck together. There was a strike from outside and they came together.”

Read the article on The New York Times.

ARTICLE – Greece and Albania are heading to the International Court in The Hague after both countries failed to agree on the issue of maritime borders, despite both prime ministers meeting on the sidelines of the European political Community in Prague on Thursday, reports Euroactiv.

Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama said that no consensus was found, and the matter would progress to the International Court in The Hague.

“This is a legal process, there are a number of rules, there are a number of procedures, and we will respect the procedures from the beginning to the end because we have to make our position very clear, we have to make it very clear what we intend in this process and that unified attitude required of this court as to what one side intends and what the other side intends, requires its own time. So, we don’t have a consensus between the parties”, said Rama.

Find the article on Greek City Times website.

COMMENT – Contrary to the Kremlin’s claims, the West is not to blame for current food shortages in the developing world. But it does have a responsibility to help address them, rather than leaving these countries to fend for themselves, as it largely did during the COVID-19 pandemic.

MADRID – Actions speak louder than words. That adage explains why Russian President Vladimir Putin’s depiction of his brutal and senseless war in Ukraine as a noble fight against Western imperialism comes across as farcical. It should also inform Western leaders’ response to the crises that war has fueled – including the food crisis that looms over vulnerable populations in Africa.

While climate change and the pandemic were undermining food security well before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the situation is even more dire now, particularly in low-income African countries that depend on food imports from Russia and Ukraine. Globally, a staggering 345 million people face acute food insecurity, with hundreds of millions more going to bed hungry every night. As United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres warned last month, there is a real risk of multiple famines this year.

Read the comment written by Ana Palacio on Project Syndicate.

Dr Gargash stressed that many countries, including the UAE, were careful not to take sides in a complex war, while saying the “law of the jungle” should not prevail in any dispute.

“Many countries … don’t want to be with or against [Ukraine or Russia] but with the rules. We live in a region with lots of difficulties [so we] cannot [have the] laws of the jungle. There must be clear rules.”

The wide-ranging talk on the second day of the forum also touched on Yemen, the UAE’s plans for the next several decades, and complex relations with countries such as Turkey and Iran.

On Iran, Dr Gargash, a former minister of state for foreign affairs, said it was important to avoid judging other political systems in the region and instead build on opportunities for growth.

“We cannot say this system doesn’t suit us and don’t like it,” he said.

Dr Gargash said there were “issues” with Iran but the UAE is striving for good relations. He cautioned against the “illusion” of a military situation that would only mean the region would lose.

“The solution with Iran is to have good bilateral relations and continue dialogue,” he said.

“To hold each other accountable and find partnerships. [This is the case] not only with Iran but with other countries.”

Dr Gargash said the last decades in the region had been very difficult, with wars, crises and the Arab uprisings of 2011.

“We do not want to spend 20 to 30 years in wars. No one who is rational will accept a repeat,” he said.

Dr Gargash pointed to strengthening ties with Turkey and talks between Egypt and Turkey that suggested a more positive future.

But he said the fact that Yemen was still without a ceasefire was a “disaster”. He said a ceasefire was a paramount objective and conditions for a political solution were needed.

‘Without growth this region will be forgotten’

Looking ahead to the UAE’s path for the next few decades, Dr Gargash said it had passed through an “exceptional decade” of challenges, problems, coronavirus, unrest and the Arab uprisings in other countries.

Now the plan was to work on the economy, but not just the traditional economy.

“We have to change the work environment. This is an ecosystem and not just about economic transactions,” Dr Gargash said.

He said it was important to also strengthen bridges built in the past 15 years and he pointed to the signing of the Abraham Accords, talks with Iran and Turkey and efforts to find new partnerships.

“We are not naïve,” Dr Gargash said. “Every country has its own interests. The UAE is working on sorting out problems. We have succeeded to a certain extent. There is competition and we accept legitimate competition.

“The region is slowly getting out of the Arab spring crises. It took a lot of effort to put out those fires. This region will be forgotten if we do not focus on putting prosperity and growth on the agenda.

“Look at Saudi Arabia. This shows the fact [there was a] previous approach for a previous period. [But now] new challenges need a new approach to creating jobs and a new economy.”

Read the article on the site of The National.

A total of 1,700 former rebels have been trained and integrated into the Sudanese National Army as required by the Juba Peace Agreement signed in 2020, Anadolu News Agency reports.

The army, rebel groups in the country, and the UN envoy confirmed the figure.

In an address to his Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-Northern sector, rebel leader, Malik Agar, said more than 700 fighters in the troubled region of Blue Nile were trained and integrated into the National Army.

He, however, added that there are many obstacles to the implementation of security arrangements in the Agreement, including the lack of financial support.

Volker Perthes, the UN’s Special Envoy to Sudan, urged all parties to speed up the implementation of the peace deal.

“However, this two-year anniversary is another stark reminder that much remains to be done. There is an urgent need for the full implementation of the Juba Peace Agreement’s provisions, including security arrangements and the swift deployment of the Joint Security Keeping Forces to ensure the protection of civilians, the establishment of relevant commissions such as the Commission for Refugees and Internally Displaced Persons, the Transitional Justice Commission, the Land and Hawakeer Commission, as well as other provisions on wealth and power sharing, nomads and reparations,” Perthes said in a statement on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, Darfur rebels and the army exchanged accusations of delay in the implementation of the security arrangements.

Darfur ruler, Mini Arko Minawi, said the army has delayed the formation of the Joint Civil Protection Forces, which was supposed to include 12,000 fighters from both sides.

However, Sudanese Armed Forces spokesman, Nabil Abdullah, has denied the accusations, saying that the formation of the Civil Protection Forces has faced wide obstacles, especially from the rebel groups.

The Juba Peace Agreement was signed in October 2020, but the two sides have exchanged blame over the implementation of the Agreement.

Read the original article on the Middle East Monitor.

While there had been speculation about using the upcoming Arab League summit in Algeria to normalize relations with Syria’s Bashar Assad and rehabilitate him, this matter now seems more elusive than ever. Though Assad lost his legitimacy when he slaughtered his people, he now poses a direct health threat to the Gulf and the wider international community as Syria turns into a narco-state and Assad uses drugs as a bargaining chip.

Initially, Assad used refugees as a bargaining chip. He wanted them to overwhelm the international community so that he could bring it to its knees and foreign leaders would accept his conditions without him having to make any concessions. However, he cannot play this card anymore, as the Europeans have somehow absorbed the waves of refugees, the violence in Syria has largely stopped and the international community is talking about early recovery without having to normalize with the regime.

Now that the refugee card is lost, Assad needs a new point of pressure. In the first eight months of this year, 250 million Captagon pills of Syrian provenance were confiscated worldwide. Syria is thought to have exported pills worth $17.5 billion in 2020, or 22 times the nation’s total exports. The main destination for the lethal Captagon pills is Saudi Arabia. Every now and then, the Kingdom’s authorities find drugs hidden inside shipments of fruit. Also, in an attempt to evade suspicion, Assad sends the fruits via Lebanon.

In an interview with Le Figaro, a regime-linked Syrian businessman hinted that Assad would stop sending Captagon to the world if the international community rehabilitated him without him having to change his behavior. The businessman gave the excuse that the regime needs to find ways “to live” while sanctions are imposed.

However, various attempts to rehabilitate Assad have failed. Jordan tried to help Assad. When King Abdullah visited US President Joe Biden last year, he took with him the Assad dossier. However, Assad returned the favor by sending weapons and drugs to Jordan. There were also talks held about Amman reviving the opposition groups in Deraa, southwestern Syria, in order to create a buffer between Assad’s thugs and the Jordanian border.

However, the attitude of Assad toward Jordan shows that a step-by-step approach does not work. Assad will always blackmail the international community to get what he wants without making any concessions. This actually makes sense because any concession Assad does make will be the end of his regime.

Assad is a survivor. He will do whatever it takes to survive. When aid goes through Damascus, he makes sure he takes a large cut to bolster his regime. Now that sanctions have cut him off from the global economy, he has turned to the black economy to finance his regime. Drugs serve two purposes. They are both a medium to finance the regime and a way to blackmail the international community.

However, drugs are a red line for the international community. While Assad slaughtering his own people in Syria was an issue, when he is causing health problems in Gulf countries and in Europe, this is a totally different ball game. Europe will not cave in to Assad; on the contrary, it has now confirmed that the Syrian president cannot be trusted and any concessions made to him will only produce more belligerent behavior and more blackmail.

The drugs are a reality check for Europe, the Gulf and the world, including those who go by the logic of ‘better the devil you know’.

Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib

Everyone in Europe is concerned about drugs and it is unlikely they will empower a regime that they deem so malicious. But the drugs are a reality check for Europe, the Gulf and the world, including those who go by the logic of “better the devil you know.” There is no way forward with Assad. He will not change his behavior and will continue blackmailing the international community, even if funds are directed to him.

Former US President Jimmy Carter, who favors normalization with Assad as a way to stop the conflict, once described the process as an “ugly peace.” However, there will be no peace of any kind with Assad. He does not understand that his methods do not work with the international community and that, unless he shows some goodwill, no one will lend him a hand.

The overtures of Jordan to his regime were a golden opportunity for him to show some goodwill that could have created an incentive for other Arab countries to start the normalization process. However, instead of showing appreciation to the king of Jordan, Assad’s reckless and unethical behavior only embarrassed King Abdullah. What kind of sign does that send to those who have thought of normalizing with him?

Assad does not realize that he is living on borrowed time. He has been very skillful at playing on the differences between his allies and even among his foes. He knew how to strike a balance between the Russians and the Iranians. He presented himself as a deterrent against Turkey at the height of Ankara’s tensions with the UAE. This was one incentive for Abu Dhabi to normalize with the Syrian regime and extend help to it. However, his behavior cannot be sustained. And the Captagon episode is proof that Assad cannot be redeemed.

Read the article on the website of Arab News

 

INTERVIEW – La Secrétaire générale de la Francophonie Louise mushikiwabo est candidate à sa propre succession à la tête de l’organisation qu’elle dirige depuis 2019. En visite dans les studios de la VOA à Washington, l’ancienne chef de la diplomatie rwandaise promet de poursuivre les réformes engagées pour reformer et moderniser cette organisation. Le 18e sommet de la francophonie est prévue fin novembre en Tunisie. Au micro d’Abdourahmane Dia, Louise Mushikiwabo a dit que l’adhésion de pays francophones comme le Togo et le Gabon au Commonwealth doit plutôt être vue comme une opportunité et non une menace à l’espace francophone.

Retrouvez la vidéo de l’interview complète sur VOA Afrique.

COMMENT – The previous three Geoeconomic Briefing series discussed whether Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has aspects of a “new war.”

To better understand the conflict, it is also necessary to examine sanctions against Russia and the impact of such economic measures on Russian behavior.

When Russia was building up troops along its border with Ukraine ahead of its invasion of the country, the United States ruled out sending troops into Ukraine, giving up the option of hampering Russia’s invasion by use of force.

Instead, Washington threatened to impose severe economic sanctions as a means to prevent Russia’s actions.

It is not surprising that such threats of economic sanctions did not work as a deterrence. Generally speaking, economic sanctions are meant to appeal to economic rationality. They are aimed at urging a nation to stop taking certain actions because such measures, if put into practice, would lead to economic damage.

But a decision to start a war is not necessarily based on economic rationality, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is driven by Moscow’s national security interests and ambition to expand its territory, rather than by economic rationale.

This means it would have been difficult to deter Russia — which was trying to start a war under logic beyond economic rationality — with economic sanctions.

Read more about this comment written by Kazuto Suzuki on thejapantimes.

ANALYSE – Il semble que le président russe ait omis de préparer un plan B cohérent en cas d’échec de son armée dans la soumission de l’armée ukrainienne.

L’article écrit par Renaud Girard est à retrouver dans le FigaroVox.

« Le Conseil fédéral décidera à la fin du mois si la Suisse est capable d’organiser la COP31 »

Le conseiller fédéral Ueli Maurer a ouvert le grand rendez-vous de la finance durable Building Bridges en compagnie de son président Patrick Odier.

Le sommet de la finance durable Building Bridges a été officiellement lancé au CICG, à Genève, en présence du conseiller fédéral Ueli Maurer.

«Cette troisième édition se veut un événement phare et un catalyseur du changement. Aucun secteur ne peut y parvenir seul, nous avons tous un rôle à jouer dans cette transition», a souligné son président Patrick Odier devant la presse.

«La durabilité est notre mission pour la prochaine génération et Building Bridges est un excellent instrument pour atteindre cet objectif», a commenté Ueli Maurer.

Le conseiller fédéral a saisi l’occasion pour donner quelques précisions sur l’organisation de la COP 31 en 2026 en Suisse.

[…]

« Nous avons besoin que le monde politique fasse sa part »

Philipp Hildebrand, l’actuel vice-président de BlackRock, premier gestionnaire d’actifs au monde avec près de 10.000 milliards de dollars sous gestion, clôture la première journée de conférences.

«Nous avons un rôle majeur à jouer, mais nous ne pouvons pas régler le problème [du changement climatique]. Nous avons besoin que le monde politique fasse sa part. Ne nous considérez pas comme ceux qui vont forcer le changement. Mais nous pouvons être le catalyseur», souligne Philipp Hildebrand.

L’article est à retrouver sur le site d’AGEFI.

ARTICLE – Avec la flambée des prix de l’énergie, la bataille pour la survie de l’industrie européenne est devenue une priorité. Pour la gagner et vaincre ceux qui rêvent de nous évincer, il faudra rester solidaire. Ce n’est pas gagné.

L’industrie européenne craque. Notre continent avait promis de se réindustrialiser après la crise du Covid, celle-ci ayant révélé des dépendances excessives à l’égard du reste du monde. Dans les puces électroniques, les batteries, les principes actifs pour les médicaments et l’on en passe, l’heure devait être à la reconquête. Avec pour objectif de retrouver de l’autonomie dans une panoplie d’industries critiques.

Retrouvez l’article écrit par Nicolas Barré dans Les Echos.

Parce qu’il a limité la hausse des prix de l’énergie et donc de l’inflation, le « bouclier tarifaire » fait l’orgueil du ministre de l’économie, Bruno Le Maire.

Il faut dire que ses effets sont spectaculaires : certes en forte hausse, l’inflation en France demeure aujourd’hui sensiblement plus faible que chez nos voisins. Mesurée sur un an et sur une base harmonisée, elle a été en août de 6,6 % dans l’Hexagone contre 9,1 % dans l’ensemble de la zone euro, à peine moins en Allemagne et jusqu’à 25,2 % en Estonie.

Cet écart n’est pas entièrement dû à la politique du gouvernement (l’énergie, et en particulier le gaz, pèse plus lourd dans l’indice des prix en Estonie), mais celle-ci y concourt largement. L’Insee a calculé que sans le bouclier tarifaire l’inflation aurait été de 3,1 points plus élevée.

L’objectif premier du bouclier est social : il s’agit de protéger le pouvoir d’achat des ménages à faible revenu. Mais il est aussi économique, et Bercy ne fait pas mystère de sa volonté d’engranger des gains de compétitivité durables. L’occasion est belle : mettre à profit le choc pour dévaluer le taux de change réel vis-à-vis de nos partenaires.

Il y a dix ans tout juste, le rapport Gallois sommait le gouvernement d’abaisser les cotisations sociales pour gagner en compétitivité. On se rappelle la suite : CICE [crédit d’impôt pour la compétitivité et l’emploi] et pacte de responsabilité signaient bientôt la conversion de François Hollande à l’économie de l’offre. Ils opéraient ainsi un transfert massif vers les entreprises, dont les conséquences politiques allaient être terribles pour la gauche.

Lire la chronique complète sur le site du Monde.

«  La géopolitique de l’Europe a besoin d’une théorie des ensembles  »

François Mitterrand, 1990

La première réunion de préfiguration de la Communauté politique européenne se tient à Prague le 6 octobre 2022, convoquée par la présidence tchèque du Conseil de l’Union, sous la conduite du Président du Conseil Charles Michel². Il s’agit de donner corps à la proposition formulée par le Président Emmanuel Macron lors de la session de clôture de la Conférence sur l‘avenir de l’Europe, le 9 mai à Strasbourg.

 «  En 1989, le président François Mitterrand ouvrit cette réflexion alors que l’Union soviétique se délitait en proposant la création d’une confédération européenne. Sa proposition n’eut pas de postérité. Elle était sans doute trop précoce. Elle associait la Russie à cette confédération, ce qui est bien entendu, fût très rapidement inacceptable pour les États qui venaient de se libérer du joug de l’Union soviétique. Mais elle posait une bonne question et cette question demeure : comment organiser l’Europe d’un point de vue politique et plus large que l’Union européenne ? C’est notre obligation historique que d’y répondre aujourd’hui et de créer ce que je qualifierai aujourd’hui devant vous une « communauté politique européenne ».

La question centrale, alors posée, était de savoir comment organiser l’Europe, au sens de continent, sans tout faire reposer, de manière exclusive sur l’Union européenne. Le Kremlin a simplifié la donne en s’excluant de l’espace de civilisation européenne en recourant à la guerre, c’est dire en brisant le principe du «  plus jamais ça  » qui est le fondement de la réconciliation des pays européens de régime démocratique. La géographie de l’Europe contemporaine est dans sa politique – la démocratie – et la liste des pays invités regroupe l’ensemble des pays membres du Conseil de l’Europe, dans sa configuration de 2022.

Lire l’article complet sur le site du Grand Continent.

«Le monde entier avait prophétisé que l’Afrique allait être la victime du Covid. Ce fut finalement le continent le moins éprouvé». C’est par ces mots, en réponse à la question «où va l’Afrique? »que l’ancien premier ministre béninois Lionel Zinsou, ancien patron du fonds PAI Partners et co-fondateur de Southbridge Bank,  a ouvert  le 17 septembre 2022, le débat économique en marge de la célébration des dix ans de L’Economiste du Bénin, un journal parti du pays éponyme et aujourd’hui présent au Togo, au Niger et, entre autres, au Burkina Faso avec, insiste le fondateur, Léonard Dossou, “des ambitions  panafricaines”.

D’emblée, Lionel Zinsou met à nu l’échec des prévisions pessimistes qui ont fleuri jusqu’au sein des institutions spécialisées (OMS) et financières les plus prestigieuses (Banque Mondiale, FMI) sur l’apocalypse africaine.

«Au final, les conséquences ont été beaucoup plus limitées que la prophétie» déclare le conférencier louant la réactivité rapide des gouvernements africains qui ont travaillé en étroite concertation. Aussi, ni le Bénin, hôte de la célébration des dix ans de l’Economiste, encore moins l’Union économique et monétaire ouest africaine (UEMOA) n’est pas entré en récession. La raison ?

La résilience et l’ingéniosité africaine qui ont  permis au monde d’aboutir à l’instrument des émissions budgétaires de 650 milliards de dollars à travers les droits de tirage spéciaux (DTS). Cet  espace supplémentaire pour les budgets qui n’est  pas de la dette a été âprement négocié au niveau du G20. Dans ces DTS, l’Afrique avait son quota de 33 milliards de dollars avec une extension possible à 100 milliards  à travers le principe d’une  reallocation des parts des pays n’ayant pas besoin de ces liquidités, soit 3% du PIB. «Aujourd’hui, précise le conférencier, nous sommes à 90 milliards de dollars d’engagements envers l’Afrique».

Lire l’article original sur le site de Financial Afrik.