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China and North Korea absorb lessons from Ukraine’s evolving battlefield

Drone production is only part of a broader shift toward networked warfare

Hiroyuki AKITA, Nikkei commentator
June 27, 2026

TOKYO — War is humanity’s greatest tragedy, claiming countless lives, fracturing societies and leaving scars that endure for generations. Yet war is also, in its ironic way, a furnace of invention. Technologies forged in conflict spill into civilian life and, over time, reshape the character of conflict itself.

World War I produced the tank, built to claw through trench lines. World War II brought radar and code-breaking to maturity, altering the course of entire campaigns. For better or worse, nations race to absorb each new wave of battlefield innovation, hoping to turn it to their own advantage. In Ukraine today, that cycle is repeating with startling speed.

Cheap, expendable drones have enabled Ukraine to destroy Russian tanks and even warships, overturning decades of conventional military assumptions. As Russia has responded in kind, unmanned combat has rapidly proliferated, a shift many analysts view as a revolution in modern warfare.

Countries around the world, eager to grasp the technological transformation sweeping the battlefield, are closely studying the war unleashed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Nowhere is that attention more intense than in the Baltic states — Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania — which lie on Russia’s doorstep and live with an acute sense of peril.

On May 14, I observed Spring Storm, one of Estonia’s largest military exercises. The multinational drill, which runs for about a month from early May, drew forces from more than a dozen nations, including the U.S., Britain and France.

The training grounds lay close to the Russian border, and to guard against hacking we were told to switch off our phones. Before reaching the site, I had expected to see tanks rumbling across fields and fighter jets carving through the sky. Instead, the area reverberated with the metallic whine of drones. The day’s drill focused on unmanned combat, with drones and other systems used for reconnaissance, strikes and electronic disruption.

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A British Army soldier monitors the front line using unmanned surveillance equipment during a joint military exercise in Estonia. (Photo by Hiroyuki Akita)

What stood out was the presence of Ukrainian troops, invited so others could learn the latest techniques of drone warfare. “In drones and electronic warfare, we are behind Russia and Ukraine,” said Col. Aron Kalmus of the Estonian Defence Forces, who commanded the exercise. “We have to catch up, and quickly.”

The rapid, radical transformation of front-line combat is visible in a single statistic. Ukraine’s drone production surged from just 1,200 units in 2022 to around 1.7 million in 2024, marking a roughly 1,400-fold increase, according to the Kyiv-based think tank StateWatch. Russia, too, ramped up its production target to 1.4 million units in 2024.

But the deeper transformation lies not in volume alone. A new way of fighting is taking shape, one in which drones are fused into a unified network with ground forces, aircraft and missile units. Electronic warfare, the countermeasure of choice, is advancing just as quickly, creating a relentless contest in which each side races to blind, jam or hijack the other’s unmanned fleets.

One development, however, casts a darker shadow: the role of Pyongyang. North Korea is the only third nation to have sent troops to support Russia on the ground, reportedly more than 10,000 so far, with some analysts warning that another 25,000 to 30,000 could follow.

On Ukraine’s battlefields, North Korean forces are being exposed to some of the most advanced forms of unmanned and electronic warfare currently in use. In return for its troop deployment, Pyongyang is believed to have received Russian assistance in drone and electronic warfare technology, as well as technical support for reconnaissance satellites and missile development, according to assessments by South Korean intelligence and others. North Korea may be honing its ability to control drone swarms and counter enemy drones through sophisticated electronic warfare systems.

North Korea’s support for Russia extends well beyond manpower. It has shipped vast quantities of ammunition and even its KN-23, a short-range ballistic missile closely modeled on Russia’s Iskander system. Ukrainian intelligence now warns that live-fire data from those launches may be shared between Moscow and Pyongyang and used to enhance the missile’s accuracy.

“There is a danger that the North Korean military is absorbing the most advanced ways of fighting from Russia ahead of every other nation,” said Shinae Lee, a researcher at Japan’s Sasakawa Peace Foundation who in late May published an analysis of the risks of the deepening military partnership. “For the security of Asia, that is an extraordinarily grave threat.”

What unsettles the wider world is mounting signs that Russia is also sharing its combat experience in Ukraine with the Chinese military. Moscow relies heavily on China for the semiconductors and machine tools essential to sustaining mass arms production. Training assistance, it seems, is part of the repayment.

In June 2025, the Kyiv Post reported that Russia planned to host and train some 600 Chinese military personnel by year’s end, drawing directly on lessons from real combat to strengthen China’s ability to counter NATO-standard weapons systems. The Chinese military, for its part, secretly invited Russian personnel for training in the latter half of last year, according to Reuters.

China already commands one of the world’s largest shares of drone production and possesses formidable operational know-how. In March, it demonstrated Atlas, a drone swarm system capable of coordinating nearly 100 drones for missions including reconnaissance and attack. Combat data and operational experience gained in Ukraine could help speed China’s military transformation.

Sadly, there is little indication that Russia’s invasion will end soon and peace will return to Ukraine. As military innovation continues to evolve on the battlefield, the U.S., Europe, China and North Korea will likely race to draw lessons from it.

The countries most at risk of falling behind are Japan and South Korea, both situated close to China and North Korea. Tokyo and Seoul have refrained from full-fledged, direct military support for Ukraine, and their security exchanges with Kyiv remain limited compared with those of the U.S. and Europe.

Yet there is still much they can do, including deepening cooperation in civilian drone technology. What is important is to see Ukraine not merely as a recipient of aid, but as a partner whose battlefield experience offers valuable insights into the future of warfare.

Read article on Nikkei‘s website.

Asia shaken as US abandons role as guardian of rules-based order

Japan must step up efforts to safeguard peace in region

Hiroyuki AKITA, Nikkei commentator
June 16, 2026

SINGAPORE — Defense ministers and senior military officers from Asia, the U.S. and Europe sparred at the Shangri-La Dialogue security summit in late May amid growing concern that U.S. President Donald Trump’s “peace through strength” approach could come at the expense of the “rules-based order.”
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth appealed for understanding of Washington’s security strategy at the three-day conference, which concluded on May 31 in Singapore. However, listening to his speech firsthand, I could not help feeling that America’s leadership in upholding order in the Indo-Pacific is likely to erode further.

“We let ourselves get distracted by empty globalist rhetoric about the rules-based international order,” Hegseth said in his speech on May 30, rejecting the position of many European and other countries that place a premium on international law and rules. Instead, he advocated stability through strength, urging U.S. allies in Asia to accelerate efforts to bolster their defense capabilities.

Military buildups by China and North Korea have altered the balance of power in Asia and increased instability across the region. In this new reality, Hegseth’s argument that strength matters more than rules is not without merit. Even so, he went too far by denying the rules-based order, calling it nothing more than empty rhetoric. A world devoid of rules and order would leave major powers largely unchecked, with survival of the fittest becoming the governing principle.

Japan has pursued the vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific based on international law and order since it was first championed by the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe about a decade ago. The current U.S. approach points in the opposite direction.

Many Southeast Asian conference participants voiced concern about the current situation.

“Institutions such as the United Nations, established to uphold stability, multilateralism and international law, are becoming increasingly weakened in the face of geopolitical rivalry,” Malaysian Defense Minister Mohamed Khaled Nordin said. “When developing nations violate agreements, they face condemnation and pressure. But when powerful countries or their allies do the same, the international response becomes conspicuously muted.”

Khaled did not mention any country by name but implicitly criticized what he suggested were military actions by the Trump administration of questionable legality under international law, including its strike on Iran.

The U.N. Security Council is responsible for maintaining international peace and order by identifying violations of international law and imposing sanctions on those responsible. But the council’s authority has been undermined since Russia, one of its permanent members, became an aggressor. If the U.S. retreats from its role in maintaining international order and the rule of law, global security will be dealt another blow.

However, this is not the first time the U.S. has scaled back its commitment to the international order. Weary of prolonged “war on terror” operations in Afghanistan and the Middle East, the Barack Obama administration declared in 2013 that America would no longer serve as the world’s policeman. The shift, then, did not begin with the inauguration of the Trump administration; it had been underway for years.

International law and rules are not only needed to prevent maritime and territorial disputes; they are also urgently needed to establish limits on the military use of artificial intelligence.

At a special session of the Shangri-La summit, participants discussed the risks posed by the military application of AI, which could lower the threshold for the outbreak of war. Senior military officials from Pakistan and China, both nuclear-armed states, warned that the use of AI could accelerate the pace of conflict to the point where it becomes difficult to control.

If the international order continues to erode and security tensions keep rising, Asia’s geopolitical landscape could be profoundly affected. There are three possible scenarios.

The first is that Asia splits into three camps as the U.S.-China rivalry intensifies. China’s neighbors, including Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar, would deepen their ties with Beijing, while maritime nations such as Japan, Australia and the Philippines would strengthen their alliances with America to counter China’s growing influence. Meanwhile, countries such as Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia would seek a middle ground, avoiding alignment with either side.

The second would see a stronger sense of urgency driving deeper security cooperation among Japan, South Korea, Australia, India and Southeast Asian countries. By fostering regional cohesion, such cooperation could prevent Asia from fragmenting into rival camps and help preserve a certain level of stability.

The third lies somewhere in between. There is little doubt that the first would be the worst outcome and the second the most desirable.

Achieving the best-case scenario will be difficult but not impossible. “If there are concerns that U.S. military engagement in Asia may waver, momentum will grow even further to deepen security cooperation within the Asia region as a hedge against that risk,” said Bilahari Kausikan, former permanent secretary of Singapore’s foreign ministry. “We are already seeing such signs emerging even within ASEAN.”

ASEAN defense ministers in October agreed to conduct joint military exercises and expand cooperation to protect undersea cables and strengthen cybersecurity. However, unity among ASEAN members alone will not be sufficient to counter China’s formidable military power and preserve regional order. Japan’s actions will be crucial.

Japan needs to further strengthen its defense capabilities and support the U.S. to help ensure that it remains engaged in Asia. Tokyo should then expand defense assistance to ASEAN members and other regional partners.

Japan is taking steps in the right direction by drastically increasing defense spending and relaxing restrictions on defense equipment exports. Yet Asia’s geopolitical environment is deteriorating rapidly. The key question is whether Japan can adapt quickly enough to keep pace with the fast-changing situation.

Read article on Nikkei‘s website.

Aleksandar Vučić

President of the Republic of Serbia since 2017, Aleksandar Vučić previously served as Prime Minister of Serbia from 2014 to 2017, following his tenure as First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defence. A central figure in Serbian politics for more than three decades, he co-founded the Serbian Progressive Party in 2008 and became its President in 2012. Earlier in his career, he served as Minister of Information (1998–2000), Member of the National Assembly of Serbia and of the Federal Assembly of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, and held various senior political responsibilities within the Serbian political system. As First Deputy Prime Minister, he played a leading role in Serbia’s efforts to combat corruption and contributed to the EU-facilitated dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina, which led to the signing of the Brussels Agreement in 2013. As Prime Minister, he oversaw a programme of economic reforms aimed at restoring fiscal stability, reducing public debt and strengthening Serbia’s economic performance. President Vučić graduated from the Faculty of Law of the University of Belgrade in 1994. He is fluent in English and Russian and has a working knowledge of French and German.

Russia is weaker — but no less dangerous

Putin steps up cyber and other hybrid attacks against US allies in Europe

Hiroyuki AKITA, Nikkei commentator
May 31, 2026

TALLINN, Estonia — Russian President Vladimir Putin must have left Beijing in a sour mood, quietly nursing frustration and disappointment.

During his two-day visit to the Chinese capital through May 20, Putin failed to clinch a final agreement from Chinese President Xi Jinping on Power of Siberia 2, a long-awaited pipeline that would carry Russian natural gas to China through Mongolia.

Xi dashed Putin’s hopes of winning a firm Chinese commitment on the project. For Moscow, the pipeline is central to its effort to redirect gas exports from Europe to Asia after Western sanctions and the war in Ukraine shattered its access to European markets. But Beijing was in no hurry, fully aware of its leverage. It appears to still be pressing for discounted gas supplies.

Putin faces tightening headwinds on several fronts. Russia’s economy is showing signs of strain, while on the battlefield in Ukraine, Russian forces continue to suffer heavy casualties even as the front lines remain deadlocked.

It would be dangerously ill-advised, however, to assume that a weakened Russia is necessarily less dangerous. History offers little comfort on this point: A declining autocrat does not always become more restrained. Russia may grow more reckless, more brutal and more unpredictable precisely because it is under pressure.

That risk was not lost on experts who attended two recent security conferences in Europe in mid-May: PISM Strategic Ark in Warsaw, Poland, and the Lennart Meri Conference in Tallinn, Estonia. At both gatherings, officials, analysts and other security specialists delivered a consistent warning: The Russian threat is growing, not receding.

European and NATO participants particularly emphasized that, despite worsening conditions, Russia is pressing ahead with the reconstitution of its military. According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a London-based think tank, Russia’s active-duty troop strength, roughly 900,000 before its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, had grown to about 1.13 million by early 2025. Putin has ordered a further expansion to 1.5 million personnel.

The buildup is not aimed solely at Ukraine. Lithuanian intelligence and other security services report that since the invasion began, Russia has steadily reinforced troop concentrations along the borders of NATO member states.

At PISM Strategic Ark, Lt. Gen. Nicole Schilling, deputy inspector general of the German Armed Forces and the country’s second-highest-ranking military officer, warned that Russia should not be viewed as having exhausted its military capacity in Ukraine. Moscow, she suggested, is maintaining separate forces along the NATO front.

Perhaps most alarming is a recent line of analysis suggesting that Russia may be preparing for a possible attack on U.S. allies in Europe. In December, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte issued a dire warning, saying, “Russia could be ready to use military force against NATO within five years.”

At first glance, the idea may seem implausible. A Russia struggling to subdue a single, smaller country could hardly expect to prevail against NATO, an alliance of more than 30 members.

According to senior European military officers and security experts who attended the conferences in Poland and Estonia, the scenario Russia is most likely to be contemplating is a localized, short operation designed to paralyze the transatlantic alliance.

For example, one gambit Putin may be considering would proceed roughly along the following lines: Russian forces, or proxy troops operating without insignia, suddenly cross into part of the Baltic states or other neighboring territories. They destroy infrastructure, kill or wound civilians, and then withdraw, while leaving Russia in control of a narrow strip of land along the frontier.

NATO would then face an agonizing choice: invoke collective defense and risk full-scale war with Russia, or waver. The alliance would soon splinter, and over time NATO’s unity would begin to unravel.

If Putin is seriously entertaining such a plan, it could prove suicidal for Russia itself. Even if NATO as a whole failed to act, individual member states might retaliate. The result could be an all-out war Moscow neither wanted nor planned for.

Lt. Gen. Andrus Merilo, commander of the Estonian Defence Forces, told me that the danger lies in the way Putin may assess the confluence of factors. Merilo said it is hard to believe such a Russian gambit could succeed, but Putin may not see it that way and that could make the situation very dangerous.

Meanwhile, Russia is already waging war in the gray zone. Across Europe, hybrid operations are intensifying: infrastructure sabotage, arson attacks, drone provocations, cyberattacks and assassination plots.

According to a 2025 paper by Bart Schuurman, a professor of terrorism and political violence at Leiden University’s The Hague campus in the Netherlands, Russian hybrid attacks against Europe reached 44 incidents in 2024, more than seven times the number recorded in 2022.

What could further embolden Moscow is the widening rift between the U.S. and Europe. In May, Washington announced the withdrawal of about 5,000 troops from Germany, while leaving open the possibility of further reductions in Italy and Spain.

Europe has responded to the risk of a declining U.S. presence with a rearmament drive. In 2025, defense spending across Europe and Canada rose roughly 20% from the previous year.

But the picture is murkier than the headline figures suggest. Some of the new military equipment being acquired overlaps with purchases already being made by neighboring countries. Increased defense spending does not automatically result in greater military strength. Europe remains far from capable of mounting a credible defense without American support, including the U.S. nuclear umbrella.

The pressure and sense of urgency among NATO members were palpable at the Lennart Meri Conference.

Thomas Rowekamp, chairman of the German Bundestag’s defense committee, made the case for reintroducing conscription. He argued that Germany needs to increase its active-duty force from about 180,000 to 260,000 personnel, and said he doubted this could be achieved through a purely voluntary system alone. He called for a national debate on the possible return of conscription.

All that said, the West must also guard against the opposite error: overestimating Russian capabilities and allowing fear to harden into paralysis.

“There is nothing they admire so much as strength, and there is nothing for which they have less respect than for weakness, especially military weakness,” Winston Churchill said about the Russians in a 1946 speech, offering insight into how to deal with them.

The West must not grow complacent about Russia’s waning power, nor flinch in the face of its provocations. To do so would be to hand Putin what he wants. Intimidation is his preferred instrument, and it works only if the other side allows itself to be intimidated.

Read article on Nikkei‘s website.

Anne-Claire Legendre

President of the Arab World Institute since February 2026, Anne-Claire Legendre previously served as Advisor on North Africa and the Middle East to the President of the French Republic from December 2023 to February 2026. A career diplomat, she was Spokesperson and Director of Communications and Press at the French Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs from 2021 to 2023. Prior to this appointment, she served as Ambassador of France to the State of Kuwait (2020–2021) and as Consul General of France in New York from 2016 to 2020. Between 2013 and 2016, she served in the office of Laurent Fabius, then Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Development, as Advisor on North Africa and the Middle East. Earlier, she was posted to the Permanent Mission of France to the United Nations in New York (2010–2013), where she was responsible for Middle East affairs at the United Nations Security Council. She also served within the Directorate for North Africa and the Middle East at the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs, overseeing bilateral relations between France and Algeria (2008–2010), after contributing to the development of European consular cooperation within the Directorate for French Nationals Abroad (2007–2008). She began her diplomatic career at the French Embassy in Yemen as a Communications Advisor (2005–2006). A graduate of Sciences Po, she also studied Arabic at the Institut National des Langues et Civilisations Orientales and Modern Literature at Sorbonne Nouvelle University.

Jean-Pierre Landau

Associate Professor of Economics at SciencesPo (Paris). He has worked in the French Government for most of his career. He served
as Deputy Governor of the Banque de France (2006-2011), Executive Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) the World Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development as well as Undersecretary at the Ministry of Finance. He has been Visiting Lecturer at Princeton University (Woodrow Wilson School) and Visiting professor at SAIS (John Hopkins – Washington DC) and Senior Research Fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School. He also was Dean of the School of Public Affairs at SciencesPo in 2014-2015.

Alexandre Musso

VP Sustainability for Europe & North Africa at Accor, a leading hospitality group. He provides support to hotels owners to execute the sustainable transformation among the hospitality industry. Previously, he served since 2021 as a Chief of Staff to the Accor’s Chief Sustainability Officer and as Sustainable Performance Director, within the Sustainability Department at Accor and had also worked in the social economy within the Group SOS, a french association leading the social economy in France and Europe, which he executed and put in place some social innovations. He joined the Fellowship of the Open Diplomacy Institute in 2026 and follows particularly the Sustainable transition topics. He holds two Master’s degrees from ESCP Business School where he studied Economics and from Sciences Po Paris where he studied public policies.

Arthur Rogé

Head of modelling and analysis for energy access at the International Energy Agency (IEA), where he works within the World Energy Outlook team. He has contributed to more than 20 IEA publications and has expertise across a broad range of energy topics, including energy access, CO₂ emissions, demand modelling, and energy affordability. He holds a French degree in mechanical and industrial engineering from Arts et Métiers, a Master of Science in Aerospace Engineering from Imperial College London, and a Master’s degree in International Energy from Sciences Po Paris. He joined the Fellowship of the Open Diplomacy Institute as he was appointed member of the French Delegation to the 2026 G7 Youth Summit (Y7).

Inès Rivoalen

Project Manager at ArianeGroup, where she works on a test bench for a reusable rocket engine. In this role, she contributes to the development and validation of next-generation space propulsion systems. She graduated with a double degree in general and space engineering, a multidisciplinary background that provides her a systems-level approach to complex engineering challenges. Alongside her professional activities, she is actively committed to promoting diversity in STEM fields. As a mentor with Elles Bougent, she works to encourage young women to pursue careers in the industry and research fields. Inès joined the Fellowship of the Open Diplomacy Institute when she was appointed member of the French Delegation to the 2026 G7 Youth Summit (Y7).

Dorian Revillon D’apreval

Advisor in the Environment Director’s Office at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). He provides strategic counsel to executive leadership, coordinates institutional engagement across multilateral fora, and drives transversal cooperation within the Directorate. Previously, as a Policy Officer at the French Ministry of Ecological Transition, he directed the coordination of France’s multilateral environmental negotiating positions (UN, G7, G20, WTO, OECD). During the French Presidency of the EU Council, he represented the EU and its Member States in negotiations of several resolutions at the 5th UN Environment Assembly. Dorian joined the Fellowship of the Open Diplomacy Institute when he was appointed in the French Delegation to the 2025 G7 Youth Summit (Y7) in Ottawa. He leads the training of the 2026 French Delegation to the Y7 and Y20. He grounds his policy expertise in scientific, business and legal frameworks, holding two Master’s from Maastricht University, in Sustainability Science as well as Globalisation and Law, and a Master’s in Business Law from Paris-Saclay University.

Raphaël Martin de Lagarde

Deputy Vice President for International Public Affairs at TotalEnergies since 2015. He held previously several positions at the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs focusing on Eastern Europe, Middle East, Central and South Asia.

Amélia Louiba

Marketing Analyst at Thales Cybersecurity & Identity, currently based in Munich as part of a Volontariat International en Entreprise (VIE). In this role, she contributes to the commercial development of biometric and cybersecurity solutions for government customers. This position follows two years of apprenticeship within the same organization, where she worked as a Market Analyst. She graduated from a business school after completing two years of intensive literary preparatory classes, an academic path that fostered her strong interest in historical, geopolitical, and diplomatic issues, interests that continue to shape her professional trajectory and analytical approach.
Amélia joined the Fellowship of the Open Diplomacy Institute when she was appointed member of the French Delegation to the 2025 G7 Youth Summit (Y7) in Ottawa.

Adrien Lehman

Affiliated professor at Sciences Po school of public affairs and vice-president of Institute’s board of directors. Inspector in a French public financial institution, he is the author of three books on monetary and banking economics and on public policies economics. Adrien joined the Fellowship of the Open Diplomacy Institute in 2012 when he was appointed French Delegate to the G8 Youth Summit (Y8) in Washington D.C.

Elias Kassis

Vice President Strategy & Sustainability at TotalEnergies since September 2023. Previously he was President of Total E&P UAE and TotalEnergies Country Chair in the United Arab Emirates. Before that he held various positions in the Exploration & Production division of TotalEnergies, as Vice President North Africa in the MENA division, Managing Director of several affiliates of the Company in the Middle East and Asia, as well as other assignments in Paris, Venezuela and Qatar. He began his career in TotalEnergies in 1991 and held various positions in the Trading and the Gas & Power divisions until 2002. Mr. Kassis holds an Engineering Master’s Degree from the Institut National Polytechnique de Grenoble and a Master’s Degree in Finance from ESSEC Business School.

Carla Furlan

Head of International Partnerships and Public Affairs for HDF Energy, a pioneering French company at the forefront of renewable energy and hydrogen innovation. She designs and implements strategic engagement with high-level political stakeholders, bridging corporate vision with institutional action to accelerate the energy transition. By navigating the intersection of policy, regulation, and industry, she secures critical support for transformative projects, ensuring alignment between business objectives and the evolving geopolitical landscape. A graduate of emlyon business school in International Negotiation and Business, Clara brings a sharp understanding of global dynamics to her work. As the Head of the French Delegation to the 2026 G20 Youth Summit (Y20), she drives forward-looking proposals to address the energy and environmental dimensions of today’s polycrisis, advocating for solutions that merge ambition with pragmatism.

Aurélien Duchêne

Fellow of the Open Diplomacy Institute, he was appointed French Delegate to the 2025 G20 Youth Summit (Y20) in Johannesburg and Co-Chair of the 2026 G7 Youth Summit (Y7).Independent consultant on geopolitics and defence, a researcher at the Euro Créative think tank, and a lecturer at the Catholic University of Lyon and ILERI. He regularly appears in the French media, notably as a commentator for the LCI channel, and in international media, to analyse strategic developments. Aurélien Duchêne is the author of Russia: The Next Strategic Surprise? (2021), which notably predicted a Russian invasion of Ukraine, Putin’s Russia versus the West (Eyrolles, 2024), which has been translated into Polish, and Europe and its Armies (Eyrolles, 2026), co-authored with Robin Gastaldi. He also regularly writes for major newspapers (Le Monde, Le Figaro…) or specialist journals.

Fabrice Chevalier

Deputy VP for International Public Affairs at TotalEnergies since December 2022. Before joining the Public Affairs team, he spent his entire career in TotalEnergies’ Exploration and Production branch, first in Finance (as CFO of several subsidiaries) and then in Business: he headed the Economics and Planning division and subsequently moved to New Business and the negotiation of oil and gas contracts in Eastern Europe and Asia.

Raphaël Canonne

Fellow of the Open Diplomacy Institute, French Delegate for Global Health and Food Security to the 2026 G20 Youth Summit (Y20), where he works at the intersection of global health, policy, and advocacy with other delegates and experts. He is a 6th-year medical student at Sorbonne Université, working in global health and international advocacy. He formerly served in the international team of the International Federation of Medical Student (IFMSA) , representing 1.5 million medical students in global health events and negotiations. Raphael also supported the development of the French WHO Youth Delegates Program in collaboration with the Ministry of Health. His work is focused on advancing health diplomacy and empowering the next generation of health leaders.

Pauline Da Cunha

Fellow of the Open Diplomacy Institute, appointed Deputy Secretary-General of the 2026 Y7 Summit. In this capacity, she leads outreach operations of Y7, fostering engagement with civil society and local stakeholders, and strengthening advocacy for the recommendations put forward to the G7. Graduate of the Master’s program in International Security at Sciences Po Paris, she is a policy officer at the Directorate General for International Relations and Strategy (DGRIS) of the French Ministry of the Armed Forces and Veterans, where she works on arms control and non-proliferation issues. Alongside her civilian duties, she serves as an intelligence officer in the operational reserve of the French Navy. She has gained diverse professional experience within the French Armed Forces Headquarters, the National Assembly, the French Embassy in Djibouti, as well as in the private sector and research, providing her with a cross-cutting perspective on defense diplomacy and security issues.

Thomas Chesneau-Daumas

Fellow of the Open Diplomacy Institute, he was appointed as a French delegate to the 2026 G20 Youth Summit (Y20) in Washington. He is a student pursuing a dual degree in Engineering at Mines Nancy and a Master’s in Public Policy at Sciences Po Paris, with a focus on industrial policy, innovation, and international affairs. He has gained experience across both the public and private sectors, notably as a Corporate Strategy Analyst at Bpifrance, the French public investment bank, at Thales in strategy and international business development, and within the French Ministry of the Economy and Finance, where he worked on European industrial policy. Alongside his academic and professional experience, he was elected student representative to the Board of Directors of Mines Nancy and served as President of TEDxMinesNancy, leading initiatives at the intersection of ideas, innovation, and public engagement.

Héloïse Chapuis

Sociologist and Strategist, conducting ethnographic research projects focused on the healthcare and pharmaceutical industry. She holds a MSc in Science and Technology Studies from University College London (UCL) and a BASc in Organismal Biology and Political Science from McGill University. Beyond her professional practice, she serves as a First Responder and Local Director of Solidarity and Social Affairs within the Paris 11 branch of the Protection Civile Association, coordinating outreach patrols towards homeless populations, managing solidarity initiatives, and overseeing the training and progression of first responders in matters relating to social action. She joined the Open Diplomacy Institute as a Fellow in 2025, supervising delegates leading a thorough consultation process with experts, civil society representatives, and academics, in an effort to draft propositions ahead of the G7 and G20 Youth Summits (Y7 and Y20).

Miranda Browne

Head of Development at the ESSEC Institute for Geopolitics & Business, building partnerships and working to help companies anticipate and adapt to geopolitical disruptions in the post-globalization era. Through her work, she contributes to strengthening the dialogue between the worlds of business, policy, and international affairs. Before joining ESSEC, she worked on strategic projects within the marketing and retail teams of leading international brands, including Chanel and Google. Alongside this experience, Miranda has actively led and supported initiatives promoting Diversity and Inclusion, contributing to projects in both French NGOs and the corporate sector. She joined the Open Diplomacy Institute as Fellow in 2025.

Sephora Benmira

Analyst at the Presidency of the French Republic (Élysée), working within the Strategic Monitoring and Analysis Center, where she has contributed for nearly two years. Prior to joining the Élysée, she gained experience through several internships, notably within the office of the President of the French National Assembly, Yaël Braun-Pivet, as well as at the French United Nations Association, where she engaged with international cooperation and multilateral affairs.Sephora holds a degree from ESSEC Business School and a Master of Science from Bocconi University (Milan, Italy) in Management of Governments and International Organizations, equipping her with a strong foundation in public policy and global governance. Alongside her institutional role, she serves as Head of Communications for the 2026 G7 Youth Summit (Y7) organized by the Open Diplomacy Institute.

Thomas Friang

Executive Director of the ESSEC Institute for Geopolitics & Business, fostering research, graduate, and executive education programs at ESSEC Business School exploring how companies can anticipate and adapt to geopolitical disruptions. Before joining ESSEC Business School, he served as Advisor to the French Minister for Development and International Partnerships, contributing to France’s international cooperation agenda. Thomas is also the Founder and CEO of the Open Diplomacy Institute, a non-partisan think tank dedicated to developing policy and leadership solutions to the polycrisis that hinders progress toward the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). He launched and chaired the Y20 Summit in 2011 and the Y7 Summit in 2019, creating global youth engagement platforms, embedded in the G20 and G7 diplomatic processes. His leadership in multilateral diplomacy and sustainable development has been recognized internationally: he was awarded with the Engagement Medal of the French Republic (2021), appointed Laureate of the Giverny Award for Leadership in Sustainability (2022), named as an SDG Goalkeeper by the Gates Foundation (2023) and as an Aspen Young Leader (2024).

Beatrice Drăghiciu

Founder of BFD Private Diplomacy SRL (november 2025), a strategic advisory firm specializing in public policy, governance, negotiation strategy, and high-level institutional engagement. Through this platform, she advises organizations on stakeholder relations and strategic positioning in complex political and regulatory environments. Romanian legal and public affairs expert whose career spans strategic advisory, institutional governance, justice reform, and high-level policy coordination. With extensive experience supporting senior decision-makers across key state institutions, she has established herself as a trusted adviser in the fields of justice, internal affairs, and international cooperation. Between 2018 and 2023, she served as adviser to three successive Romanian Ministers of Justice. In these roles, she provided legal and strategic counsel on institutional reform, judicial policy, and interinstitutional cooperation. She played a central role in facilitating dialogue between the Ministry of Justice, the Romanian Government, Parliament, judicial authorities, and European institutions, including the European Commission. In 2023, she was appointed State Counsellor within the Office of the Deputy Prime Minister of Romania, where she contributed to executive decision-making and coordinated domestic and international initiatives of strategic importance. Concurrently, she served as Honorary Counsellor within the Ministry of Internal Affairs until October 2025, supporting policy coordination and institutional dialogue on matters of national significance. She was directly involved in two major milestones for Romania: the successful conclusion of the Cooperation and Verification Mechanism (CVM) in the field of justice and the negotiations leading to Romania’s accession to the Schengen Area in 2023–2024. Her contributions to public service have been recognized through several high-level distinctions, including the National Order “For Merit” – Rank of Knight (2025), the Honor Emblem of the Ministry of Internal Affairs (2025), and the Distinction of Honour of the Ministry of Internal Affairs (2024). Alongside her professional activities, Drăghiciu has contributed to academia as an Associate Lecturer at the Bucharest University of Economic Studies and as a Research Assistant in Legal Sciences at Titu Maiorescu University. She holds a law degree and a master’s degree in criminal sciences and is currently pursuing doctoral research on the international responsibility of states in environmental law. Fluent in English and Spanish, she combines legal expertise, policy analysis, diplomatic acumen, and executive leadership.

Catherine Frenzel

Director within the International and European Affairs Department of Bpifrance, after having served for four years as Inspector General and member of the Executive Committee. She advises several governments and public financial institutions in Europe and Africa on corporate financing, with a particular focus on the defence sector. She previously held a number of senior management positions at Exane BNP Paribas, including roles in General Inspection, Compliance, and as Chief Operating Officer in London. She also spent several years with the Big Four, in France and in Prague. Catherine Frenzel is a graduate of Sciences Po Paris, IAE Paris‑Sorbonne, IRIS Sup’ Paris, and INALCO, and is a certified public accountant. She is a member of the Audit Committee of the Council of Europe, Chair of the Audit and Risk Committee of the EUREKA platform (a pan‑European initiative supporting innovation), a member of the Audit Committee of the French Ministry of Justice, a Board member of IFACI, and a Board member of W4, an association working with UN institutions to promote women’s training and empowerment.

Nathalie G. Drouin

Lawyer emeritus and Ambassador of Canada to France since March 2026. She will also undertake her role with Monaco in the near future. Prior to this role, she was Deputy Clerk of the Privy Council and National Security and Intelligence Advisor to the Prime Minister from January 2024 to March 2026. Mrs. Drouin served as Deputy Clerk of the Privy Council and Associate Secretary to the Cabinet from August 23, 2021, to January 26, 2024. Prior to joining the Privy Council Office, Mrs. Drouin was Deputy Minister of Justice and Deputy Attorney General of Canada from June 2017 to August 2021. Mrs. Drouin previously served as Senior Associate Deputy Minister of the Department of Justice of Canada from September 2016 to June 2017. From September 2012 to September 2016, Mrs. Drouin was Deputy Minister of Justice and Deputy Attorney General for the Government of Quebec. In addition, she held a number of positions within the Autorité des marchés financiers, including Director General of Market Supervision and Legal Affairs. Nathalie G. Drouin holds a bachelor’s degree in law and a post-graduate diploma in business administration, both from Université Laval. She has been a member of the Quebec Bar since 1992.

Belais Alain

Mr. Belais has served as Secretary of the Endowment Fund of the French Republican Guard since 2024 and has been an independent consultant since 2020. Previously, he was Adviser to the Chairman and Director of Development at Iris Finance from 2017 to 2020. From 2011 to 2017, he served as Chief Executive Officer of the French Agency for Business Creation (APCE). Between 2008 and 2011, he was Chairman of Canal France International (CFI), while simultaneously overseeing international relations at France Télévisions, where he served first as Deputy Director (2006–2007) and then as Director (2008–2011). Earlier in his career, he was Cultural Attaché at the Consulate General of France in Los Angeles from 2004 to 2006. In 2004, he served as Chief of Staff to Renaud Muselier, Minister Delegate for Foreign Affairs, following his tenure as Chief of Staff to Pierre-André Wiltzer, Minister Delegate for Cooperation and Francophonie, from 2002 to 2004. From 1997 to 2002, he was Chief of Staff to Jacques Peyrat, Senator and Mayor of Nice, after serving as Adviser and Chief of Staff to Jacques Godfrain, Minister Delegate for Cooperation, from 1995 to 1997. Mr Belais previously held a number of positions within French and European institutions, notably with the Rally for the Republic (RPR) group in the French National Assembly (1993–1995), the Paris City Council (1984–1993), and the European Parliament, where he served as Parliamentary Assistant to the European Democratic Progress Group (1982–1984). Mr Belais is a Knight of the Legion of Honour, a Knight of the National Order of Merit, and an Officer of the Order of Merit of the Sovereign Military Order of Malta.

Vincent Rostowski Jan

Ambassador and Permanent Representative of the Republic of Poland to the OECD and a Member of the Board of Katalyst Education, a leading digital education charity operating in Poland and Ukraine. He previously served as Member of the Polish Parliament for Warsaw (2011–2015) and was Poland’s longest-serving Minister of Finance (2007–2013). During his tenure, which coincided with the global financial crisis, Poland achieved the strongest economic growth performance among OECD and European countries. He drafted and implemented nine national budgets and led Poland’s tax and customs administration, employing over 60,000 staff. As Finance Minister, Prof. Rostowski participated in more than 60 ECOFIN Councils and chaired six meetings during Poland’s 2011 Presidency of the Council of the European Union, at the height of the Eurozone crisis. He played a leading role in negotiations on EU fiscal governance reforms, bank stress tests, and the creation of the European Banking Authority and the Single Supervisory Mechanism. He also participated in EU summits alongside European heads of state and government. Before entering politics, he combined an academic career with senior advisory roles in economic policy and finance across Poland, Russia, Ukraine and Serbia. He contributed to the design of Poland’s transition to a market economy and served as adviser to the Polish Ministry of Finance and the National Bank of Poland. Prof. Rostowski taught at University College London, the London School of Economics and Central European University, where he chaired the Economics Department. He is the author and editor of several books and numerous academic publications.

Brief US-China calm masks simmering anger and distrust

Trump’s Beijing visit highlights both countries’ dilemma in gaining upper hand

Hiroyuki AKITA, Nikkei commentator
May 17, 2026

TOKYO — Japan and other U.S. allies, long wary of U.S. President Donald Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy, were uneasy as they watched his three-day visit to China, which yielded few tangible results.

The concern was that Washington might pursue a rapprochement with Beijing while leaving unresolved the flashpoints in the East and South China Seas and the Taiwan Strait. While such a risk remains and the full impact of his summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping is still unclear, genuine reconciliation appears unlikely.

One reason is that the U.S.-China cold war is deepening rather than easing, leaving both sides with shrinking room for compromise. Their rivalry for supremacy in high technology, military power and diplomacy has intensified, sharply narrowing the space for mutually beneficial deals.

There is little doubt that Trump would like to use his relationship with Xi as the basis for what he could tout as a “beautiful trade deal.” Yet his posture toward China cannot be reduced to a simple fixation on dealmaking.

According to a former senior U.S. official familiar with Trump’s thinking, the president has come to see China more clearly as America’s foremost adversary in advanced technology and security. He also appears to understand instinctively that any compromise on Taiwan could leave him vulnerable to accusations at home of being a “loser.”

Trump’s view of China is also colored by emotion. He harbors a deep grudge against the Chinese Communist Party, driven in part by the large U.S. trade deficit with China. But that is only part of the story. According to another former U.S. official, Trump strongly resents Beijing because he blames his failure to win reelection in 2020 on the coronavirus that spread from China and inflicted severe damage on the U.S. economy.

On the Chinese side, too, many factors stand in the way of U.S.-China reconciliation. Xi remains deeply suspicious that the U.S. is seeking to contain China and ultimately undermine Communist Party rule.

Xi wants stability in U.S.-China relations ahead of the Communist Party congress in autumn next year. But he has little incentive to make major concessions on key issues now. That is because he believes the global geopolitical landscape is shifting in China’s favor.

The Trump administration has withdrawn from one important international organization after another, while Washington’s relations with its allies have also become fraught. From China’s perspective, as a country seeking to dismantle the U.S.-led order, the world is moving in a direction Beijing can welcome without taking any action.

Xi has also grown increasingly distrustful of Trump. When he met with Western leaders in Beijing this spring, Xi vented his dissatisfaction with the U.S. president.

A diplomatic source familiar with the exchange said Xi’s frustration with Trump arose from the Taiwan issue. On Nov. 24, Xi held a telephone conversation with Trump and emphasized its importance to China’s strategic interests. About three weeks later, however, the Trump White House unveiled a record $11.1 billion arms sale to Taiwan, a move that deeply offended Xi.

Visibly angry, Xi said, in effect, that Trump had gone back on his word after saying he understood the importance of the Taiwan issue, according to the source.

In other words, the two superpowers are sliding into deeper mutual distrust and sharper confrontation at both the state-to-state and leadership levels. Trump may be eager to cast his China visit as a success, but striking a deal to ease hostilities between Washington and Beijing remains difficult.

Given these assumptions, how will U.S.-China relations play out in the near future? In short, the two countries are likely to intensify their struggle for supremacy while remaining deterred from making bold strategic offensives against each other.

For the time being, Washington cannot shift its attention away from the war with Iran and the broader situation in the Middle East. Its capacity to counter China in Asia by rapidly redirecting military resources there remains limited.

According to an analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank, U.S. military operations against Iran may have consumed more than half of four of the seven key types of missiles in the U.S. arsenal, and about a third of the remaining three.

A strategic vulnerability with more serious implications for the U.S. is its continued dependence on China for rare earths. These materials, essential for high-performance magnets, phosphors and catalysts, are indispensable for the production of missiles and cutting-edge F-35 fighter jets. China accounts for 80% to 90% of the global share in rare-earth separation and refining, as well as in magnet production. The U.S. aims to free itself from dependence on Chinese rare-earth supplies, but some estimates suggest that achieving that goal will take at least a decade.

The Xi administration, too, faces a dilemma that prevents it from simply taking an uncompromising stance toward Washington. U.S. military intervention in Venezuela dealt a heavy blow to Beijing’s largest arms export market in South America, as well as to its oil interests there.

In Iran, the U.S. military has made extensive use of artificial intelligence, ushering in a new dimension of warfare. China clearly holds an advantage in Asia’s arms balance through the sheer volume of weapons it can bring to bear in the region, yet it is believed to have been deeply shaken by the AI-driven operations demonstrated by U.S. forces.

“An invasion of Taiwan would be highly risky, and the hurdles for China to carry it out in the immediate future are extremely high,” said a Chinese military expert.

Inside China, there is no shortage of potential hot spots that could jolt Xi’s administration. The economy is cooling, and Xi has repeatedly purged senior officials from the upper echelons of the military.

Against this backdrop, relations between Washington and Beijing are, for now, settling into a delicate equilibrium. The two continue to face off in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, yet the confrontation has not tipped into a major escalation of military tension.

Barring an unexpected clash, what might be called a petite detente — a modest, carefully managed easing of tensions — is likely to persist for the time being.

Still, the current trans-Pacific calm is merely the product of a confluence of factors that makes it risky for either side to take forceful action that could upset the status quo. It should not be mistaken for a genuine thaw. That assessment featured prominently at the World Policy Conference held near Paris from April 24 to April 26.

Particularly symbolic was a warning from Wang Jisi, founding president of Peking University’s Institute of International and Strategic Studies and one of China’s leading authorities on American studies.

“In the short term, I think [relations between] China and the United States will remain stable,” said Wang. “[But] they are long-term competitors, rivals, and they don’t like each other … don’t trust each other.

“I’m worried that maybe beyond this year, sometime next year, or at least in 2028 when you have a new U.S. president, rivalries will be intensified.”

Given the current circumstances, it is difficult to envision a “G2” framework in which the U.S. and China jointly manage global affairs. Rather, major powers should be prepared for a possible resurgence in U.S.-China tensions following this brief period of calm.

Read article on Nikkei‘s website.