Author: wpc_editor

23.11.15

Tehran, Nov 23, IRNA – Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister for Arab-African Affairs Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said the Middle East region is passing from an old political and security order to a new one with many pervious problems including interference of extra-regional powers still unchanged.

Amir-Abdollahian who is in Montreux, Switzerland to deliver a speech at the 8th edition of World Policy Conference (WPC) said such meddlings which are often in the form of military and hardware intervention have perplexed the situation in West Asia.

‘In the current transitory period, Middle East needs a new security order and the password for an efficient new order in the region is paying attention to the legitimate demands of the people. One of the best ways to help settle the problems in Middle East is strengthening regional convergence at state and popular levels,’ he said in his speech themed ‘Iran and West Asia Crises’.

Referring to the menace of terrorism in the region, the Iranian high-ranking diplomat said, ‘Acts of terror by Daesh confirm that the world’s main danger happens when terrorist organizations transform to terrorist states.’

‘To deal with the major problem of terrorism requires software solutions including reducing the number of alienated citizens, ending occupation, finding poverty reduction ways, and improving the political, social and economic infrastructures in the Middle East,’ he added.

He introduced Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Libya as the centers of crisis in West Asia and as the outcome of interventionist behaviors instead of responsible acts toward domestic issues of the countries.

‘Tehran believes that the regional crises cannot be settled by military options,’ he added, ‘There is no solution to political challenges except the political procedure.’

Amir-Abdollahian also criticized the countries behind the recent non-binding UN General Assembly resolution on the situation of human rights in Syria and said its sponsors are angry that terrorists have failed in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon.

23.11.15

Montreux (IRIB/IRNA) – Der iranische Vizeaußenminister für arabische und afrikanische Angelegenheiten Hossein Amir-Abdollahian und Wolfgang Amadeus Bruelhart, der Staatssekretär für Nordafrika- und Nahost-Angelegenheiten im schweizerischen Außenministerium haben sich am Sonntag auf ein trilaterales Treffen der Schweiz, Irans und Syriens geeinigt.

Das Treffen sollte in naher Zukunft in Teheran stattfinden, betonten Amir-Abdollahian und Bruelhart bei ihrem Treffen in Montreux. Sie erörterten dabei die aktuelle Lage im Jemen und in Syrien. Der iranische Vizeaußenminister, der zur Teilnahme an der jährlichen Sitzung der World Policy Conference (WPC) in die Schweiz gereist ist, sprach sich ferner für eine Beschleunigung und Verstärkung humanitärer Hilfeleistungen in Syrien aus.

Als Sondergast bei der Schlusszeremonie der WPC-Sitzung hielt Amir-Abdollahian eine Rede über Krisen in Westasien und beantwortete zahlreiche Fragen der teilnehmenden Diplomaten und Universitätsdozenten aus Europa und Westasien über die Entwicklungen in der Nahost-Region.

23.11.15

High-ranking officials from Iran, Switzerland and Syria plan to hold a trilateral meeting in Tehran in the near future to discuss ways to help resolve Syria’s more than four-year-old conflict.

In a meeting between Deputy Foreign Minister for Arab and African Affairs Hossein Amir Abdollahian and his Swiss counterpart in Montreux, the two sides exchanged views on a range of issues, including the latest developments in war-hit Syria, Tasnim reported on Monday.

During the session, it was agreed that Iran, Switzerland and Syria hold trilateral talks on the Arab country’s crisis in Tehran.

Amir Abdollahian traveled to the Swiss city of Montreux to attend an annual meeting of the World Policy Conference (WPC) to express Tehran’s stances on regional developments in a special meeting of the conference on the West Asia situation.

Syria has been gripped by civil war since March 2011 with Takfiri terrorists from various groups, including the ISIL, currently controlling parts of it.

23.11.15

Deputy Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian arrived in the Swiss city of Montreux late Saturday to attend the Eighth World Policy Conference on Sunday. The senior diplomat also was to speak on West Asian developments from the viewpoint of the Islamic Republic in a special session on the sidelines of the conference, Mehr News Agency reported. Amir-Abdollahian was expected to review the situation in Palestine, Syria, Yemen and other crisis-hit regional countries.

23.11.15

Iran and Switzerland agreed on organizing a trilateral meeting on Syrian crisis in Tehran in near future.

Iran’s Deputy Forein Minister for Arab-African Affairs, who is visiting Switzerland to take part in the 8th edition of World Policy Conference (WPC), had a meeting with Swiss Secretary of State for Middle East and North African Affairs Wolfgang Amadeus Bruelhart in Montreux on Sunday.

Reviewing the latest developments of Syria and Yemen, Amir-Abdollahian underlined the need to increase the humanitarian assistance to the people of Syria.

The diplomats agreed upon holding a trilateral meeting in Tehran in few months, which will be held at the presence of Iranian, Swiss, and Syrian officials to discuss the Syrian crisis.

23.11.15

MONTREUX, Switzerland- Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister for Arab and African Affairs Hossein Amir-Abdollahian has stressed that using terrorism as a tool to serve certain agendas and dividing it into good and bad have worsened the security situation in the Middle East and the entire world.

Abdollahian made the remarks while addressing the annual meeting of the World Policy Conference (WPC) in the Swiss city of Montreux on Sunday.

 Press TV reported that Abdollahian described the potential establishment of “terrorist regimes” as the direst threat facing the world today.

“The acts of Daesh confirm that the great and main threat in today’s world is the transformation of terrorist organizations into terrorist regimes,” the Iranian diplomat said.

“It is regrettable that over the past years, the national and democratic uprisings of the people of the region have been derailed by terrorists,” he said, adding that due to certain regional governments’ poor leadership and imprecise understanding of their respective countries’ internal developments, “weapons and terror and not ballot boxes are determining the fate of the nations.”

Takfiri terrorism, which threatens world security and targets all governments, nations and religions, is “the product of the interventionist and irresponsible behavior of certain regional and extra-regional players in the Middle East and North Africa region,” he said.

Deash has nothing to do with divine religions

The Iranian official described Daesh as an “artificial group,” which has nothing to do with any divine religions.

He added that certain countries, due to their “strategic miscalculations,” have tried to use Daesh as an instrument to advance their objectives, but have instead imposed a hefty price on the international community.

Global unity is needed to root out terrorism

Abdollahian said that global unity is needed to root out terrorism. Extremism, terrorism, Takfiri dogma and sectarianism are the major challenges threatening the whole world, said the Iranian diplomat, calling for a collective campaign to address these issues.

The Iranian deputy foreign minister further ruled out military approaches for the settlement of regional crises, including those in Syria, Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon and Libya, saying that the conflicts should be resolved only through diplomatic channels.

H. Mustafa

Swiss FC, D. Burkhalter, urges partners & private sector to support @thegcerf while addressing the @WorldPolicyConf http://bit.ly/1PVxaeq 

23.11.15

Prince Michael of Liechtenstein

 

 

On November 20, the United Nations Security Council passed a resolution submitted by France on fighting Islamic State. It idealistically calls on UN member states to take ‘all necessary measures’ to fight the terror group and ‘eradicate the safe haven’ it has established in Iraq and Syria. The Russians had submitted a more realpolitik-based and inclusive resolution that would have sought the cooperation of the Assad government, but this was rejected by the United States, the United Kingdom and France, writes Prince Michael of Liechtenstein.The French resolution does not cite Chapter 7 of the UN charter, which allows for the use of military force. And while it does little to change the situation on the ground, the measure does represent movement in the perception of the international community.Islamic State, originally based in Iraq, spun off from al-Qaeda in 2013 and consolidated its presence in Syria as that country spiralled into chaos. The threat it posed was really only recognised in 2014, when it overran the Sunni Arab parts of Iraq, occupied Mosul and committed numerous atrocities, including genocide against the Christians and Yazidis.GIS has repeatedly explained why the US and Iraqi military responses to Islamic State were bound to fail: the US refused to send in boots on the ground and the Iraqi army was not motivated to fight for a failed state represented by the Baghdad government.The real underlying problems in the Middle East have so far been ignored. Nearly all US or European political and military operations in the region have only made the situation worse.These have mostly served as attempts to either enforce structures and principles on Middle Eastern countries that were not tailored to the specific local realities. Examples include attempts to institute ‘Shia democracy’ in Iraq or to bring about regime change in Syria, with disastrous results, or in Egypt, where disaster was only avoided by a military takeover.In the case of Syria, President Bashar al-Assad was identified as the enemy. Under the misguided principle of ‘the enemy of my enemy is my friend,’ the US and Europe supported opposition groups, some of them extremist. This created the ideal environment for the al-Nusra Front, Islamic State and other detestable movements.Circumstances changed with Russia’s military involvement in Syria. There was movement on the diplomatic front and efforts to resume negotiations on Syria re-materialised. The US began to talk about sending in ground troops.The Europeans, especially France, have decided to become more active. It may be we have reached a tipping point. Russia, Europe, the United States – and also Turkey, an essential regional player – have all now become involved.These and other important players in the region, including Iran and Saudi Arabia, joined in the Vienna summit on Syria in mid-November.Finally, they seem to have agreed (mainly based on insistence from Russia and Iran) to include the Assad government in the continuing negotiations. The countries also resolved that national elections should be held under UN supervision once the negotiations have concluded.But democratisation in Syria will only be sustainable in a federal system which ensures that the Sunni majority cannot subjugate the Christian, Alawite and Kurdish minorities. A powerful central government would only risk a repeat of the disaster in Iraq.Russia’s actions have given it significant influence in how events in the Middle East will play out. That may or may not be a positive development, depending on one’s point of view. But the good news is that for the first time since its civil war began, a ray of hope for peace in Syria has broken through.

Itamar Rabinovich on Israeli-Palestinian dialogue – current impasse means moving from 2-state to 1-state solution

23.11.15

High-ranking officials from Iran, Switzerland and Syria plan to hold a trilateral meeting in Tehran in the near future to discuss ways to help resolve Syria’s more than four-year-old conflict.

In a meeting between Deputy Foreign Minister for Arab and African Affairs Hossein Amir Abdollahian and his Swiss counterpart in Montreux, the two sides exchanged views on a range of issues, including the latest developments in war-hit Syria, Tasnim reported on Monday.

During the session, it was agreed that Iran, Switzerland and Syria hold trilateral talks on the Arab country’s crisis in Tehran.

Amir Abdollahian traveled to the Swiss city of Montreux to attend an annual meeting of the World Policy Conference (WPC) to express Tehran’s stances on regional developments in a special meeting of the conference on the West Asia situation.

Syria has been gripped by civil war since March 2011 with Takfiri terrorists from various groups, including the ISIL, currently controlling parts of it.

Source: IRAN-Daily

23.11.15

TEHRAN (Tasnim) – High-ranking officials from Iran, Switzerland and Syria plan to hold a trilateral meeting in Tehran in the near future to discuss ways to help resolve Syria’s more than four-year-old conflict.

In a meeting between visiting Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister for Arab and African Affairs Hossein Amir Abdollahian and his Swiss counterpart on Sunday, the two sides exchanged views on a range of issues, including the latest developments in war-hit Syria.

During the session, it was agreed that Iran, Switzerland and Syria hold trilateral talks on the Arab country’s crisis in Tehran.

Amir Abdollahian has paid an official visit to the Swiss city of Montreux to attend an annual meeting of the World Policy Conference (WPC).

The ranking Iranian diplomat was going to express Tehran’s stances on regional developments in a special meeting of the conference on the West Asia situation.

Syria has been gripped by civil war since March 2011 with Takfiri terrorists from various groups, including the ISIL, currently controlling parts of it.

According to the United Nations, more than 220,000 people have been killed and one million wounded during the conflict.

In the meantime, Iran has remained a close ally of Syria and supports its legitimate government in the face of foreign-backed militancy.

23.11.15

Iran and Switzerland agreed on organizing a trilateral meeting on Syrian crisis in Tehran in near future.

Iran’s Deputy Forein Minister for Arab-African Affairs, who is visiting Switzerland to take part in the 8th edition of World Policy Conference (WPC), had a meeting with Swiss Secretary of State for Middle East and North African Affairs Wolfgang Amadeus Bruelhart in Montreux on Sunday.

Reviewing the latest developments of Syria and Yemen, Amir-Abdollahian underlined the need to increase the humanitarian assistance to the people of Syria.

The diplomats agreed upon holding a trilateral meeting in Tehran in few months, which will be held at the presence of Iranian, Swiss, and Syrian officials to discuss the Syrian crisis.

23.11.15

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister for Arab-African Affairs Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said the Middle East region is passing from an old political and security order to a new one with many pervious problems including interference of extra-regional powers still unchanged.

Amir-Abdollahian who is in Montreux, Switzerland to deliver a speech at the 8th edition of World Policy Conference (WPC) said such meddlings which are often in the form of military and hardware intervention have perplexed the situation in West Asia.

In the current transitory period, Middle East needs a new security order and the password for an efficient new order in the region is paying attention to the legitimate demands of the people. One of the best ways to help settle the problems in Middle East is strengthening regional convergence at state and popular levels, he said in his speech themed Iran and West Asia Crises.

Referring to the menace of terrorism in the region, the Iranian high-ranking diplomat said, Acts of terror by Daesh confirm that the worlds main danger happens when terrorist organizations transform to terrorist states.
To deal with the major problem of terrorism requires software solutions including reducing the number of alienated citizens, ending occupation, finding poverty reduction ways, and improving the political, social and economic infrastructures in the Middle East, he added.

He introduced Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Libya as the centers of crisis in West Asia and as the outcome of interventionist behaviors instead of responsible acts toward domestic issues of the countries.

Tehran believes that the regional crises cannot be settled by military options, he added, There is no solution to political challenges except the political procedure.

Amir-Abdollahian also criticized the countries behind the recent non-binding UN General Assembly resolution on the situation of human rights in Syria and said its sponsors are angry that terrorists have failed in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon.

23.11.15

TEHRAN, Nov. 23 (MNA) – Iran and Switzerland agreed on organizing a trilateral meeting on Syrian crisis in Tehran in near future.

Iran’s Deputy Forein Minister for Arab-African Affairs, who is visiting Switzerland to take part in the 8th edition of World Policy Conference (WPC), had a meeting with Swiss Secretary of State for Middle East and North African Affairs Wolfgang Amadeus Bruelhart in Montreux on Sunday.

Reviewing the latest developments of Syria and Yemen, Amir-Abdollahian underlined the need to increase the humanitarian assistance to the people of Syria.

The diplomats agreed upon holding a trilateral meeting in Tehran in few months, which will be held at the presence of Iranian, Swiss, and Syrian officials to discuss the Syrian crisis.

 

 

23.11.15

Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister for Arab and African Affairs Hossein Amir-Abdollahian

A senior Iranian diplomat has described the potential establishment of “terrorist regimes” as the most dire threat facing the world today.

“The acts of Daesh confirm that the great and main threat in today’s world is the transformation of terrorist organizations into terrorist regimes,” Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister for Arab and African Affairs Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said on Sunday.

He made the remarks while addressing the annual meeting of the World Policy Conference (WPC) in the Swiss city of Montreux on Sunday.

“It is regrettable that over the past years, the national and democratic uprisings of the people of the region have been derailed by terrorists,” he said, adding that due to certain regional governments’ poor leadership and imprecise understanding of their respective countries’ internal developments, “weapons and terror and not ballot boxes are determining the fate of the nations.”

Takfiri terrorism, which threatens world security and targets all governments, nations and religions, is “the product of the interventionist and irresponsible behavior of certain regional and extra-regional players in the Middle East and North Africa region,” he said.

The Iranian official described Daesh as an “artificial group,” which has nothing to do with any divine religions.

He added that certain countries, due to their “strategic miscalculations,” have tried to use Daesh as an instrument to advance their objectives, but have instead imposed a hefty price on the international community.

Amir-Abdollahian said that global unity is needed to root out terrorism. Extremism, terrorism, Takfiri dogma and sectarianism are the major challenges threatening the whole world, said the Iranian diplomat, calling for a collective campaign to address these issues.

The Iranian deputy foreign minister further ruled out military approaches for the settlement of regional crises, including those in Syria, Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon and Libya, saying that the conflicts should be resolved only through diplomatic channels.

23.11.15

En marge de la World Policy Conference qui a eu lieu ce week end à Montreux, Hervé Mariton a été interviewé pour parler des liens entre la France et la Russie dans le contexte actuel en Syrie. (En anglais) ==> Vidéo

http://www.herve-mariton.net/herve-mariton-a-la-world-policy-conference/

23.11.15

VIDEO – Interview with Arkebe Oqubay, PhD

Ajoutée le 23 nov. 2015

Ethiopia
World Policy Conference TV: Interview with Arkebe Oqubay, PhD
© World Policy Conference TV

23.11.2015

Dans une conférence internationale à Montreux ce week-end, l’ancien ministre français Hubert Védrine a estimé que l’alliance de circonstance avec la Russie au Moyen-Orient signe la fin de l’après-guerre froide. Récit de François Nordmann

Le terrorisme, les réfugiés, le Moyen-Orient et la situation économique et sécuritaire en Asie, tels ont été les thèmes principaux de la huitième «World Policy Conference» réunie à Montreux le week-end dernier.

Présidée par Thierry de Montbrial, son fondateur, la conférence a été ouverte par le conseiller fédéral Didier Burkhalter. Elle a tenté de dresser un ordre de priorité dans l’enchaînement des crises qui surgissent simultanément dans le monde.

La lutte contre Daech s’intensifie et donne naissance à une nouvelle coalition entre grandes puissances. C’est peut-être un tournant majeur, le plus important depuis la fin de la guerre froide. Pour Hubert Védrine, ancien ministre français des affaires étrangères, l’Occident, qui a bien réagi à la fin de la guerre froide, n’a pas su gérer ensuite l’après-guerre froide. La nouvelle donne qui se dessine avec la Russie permet de sortir de cette époque. Elle découle notamment de l’accord nucléaire avec l’Iran – même si les difficultés de sa mise en œuvre demeurent. Elle laisse bien augurer de la recherche en commun d’une solution politique à la guerre de Syrie, selon la formule esquissée à Vienne.

Détruire Daech et de s’en donner les moyens

A la guerre comme à la guerre: l’urgence au Moyen-Orient relègue au second plan les efforts pour régler les conflits tels que celui d’Ukraine. Il s’agit d’abord de détruire Daech et de s’en donner les moyens.

Autre urgence, la crise des réfugiés: il faut avant tout rassurer les Européens qui, bien au-delà de l’extrême droite, ont le sentiment d’être envahis. Pour Hubert Védrine, le rétablissement des contrôles aux frontières de l’Europe, la coopération accrue des polices et un renforcement de Frontex, l’organisme chargé de la sûreté extérieure sont indispensables. On ne doit laisser passer que les réfugiés persécutés. Il faut en finir avec la confusion actuelle, source d’inquiétude pour l’opinion publique, surtout quand on invoque le déficit démographique en Europe pour justifier l’accueil des migrants, ou que l’on appelle à relancer le débat sur l’Europe fédérale, ou encore que l’on veuille remodeler le Moyen-Orient. Ce sont de fausses pistes: c’est le pire moment pour les aborder.

Générosité indispensable mais insuffisante

La générosité est évidemment indispensable – sans cela l’Europe n’existe plus – mais elle ne suffit pas: faute de maîtriser la crise migratoire, c’est le droit d’asile lui-même qui sera remis en cause. Schengen reflète les idéaux qui prévalaient à sa création en 1985 mais le système ne fonctionne plus. Il faut donc se concentrer sur le problème de sécurité sans laisser la panique s’installer.

La construction européenne est fragile: les responsables de l’analyse politique des ministères des affaires étrangères de France, de Grande-Bretagne et d’Allemagne en conviennent, tout en soulignant aussi sa résilience à travers les crises. Les partenaires de Londres feront toutes les concessions possibles pour éviter le Brexit qui affaiblirait l’UE. Le referendum était nécessaire, car le débat sur l’Europe a atteint une telle intensité en Grande-Bretagne que la politique du gouvernement en Europe était menacée de paralysie. Mais – comble du cynisme – même si le non l’emporte, les Britanniques souhaitent que l’UE reste forte…

L’Asie se montre apaisée et toute à son développement économique, en dépit des tensions: le ralentissement en Chine est maîtrisé et d’ailleurs relatif. La Chine et ses voisins cherchent une issue à la contestation des frontières maritimes en mer de Chine, et de leur côté les Etats-Unis et la Chine sont tombés d’accord pour empêcher toute escalade si leurs marines devaient s’affronter. D’ailleurs, les deux puissances sont en train de définir un nouvel équilibre durable dans leurs relations. Les présidents chinois, coréen et japonais se sont récemment rencontrés, démarche sans précédent et positive pour la région.

22.11.15

TEHARN, Nov. 22 (MNA) – Iranian deputy FM Hossein Amir-Abdollahian arrived in the Swiss city of Montreux late Sat. to attend the 8th edition of World Policy Conference (WPC).

Iranian deputy Foreign Minister for Arab-African Affaris Hossein Amir-Abdollahian is slated to attend the 8th edition of World Policy Conference (WPC) on Sunday held at Fairmont Le Montreux Palace in the Swiss city of Montreux.

The Iranian diplomat will also elucidate developments in West Asia from the viewpoint of the Islamic Republic in a special and independent session.

Amir-Abdollahian is scheduled to assess and review the situation in Palestine, Syria, Yemen and other crisis-hit countries in the region.

He will also answer questions of political officials, diplomats, professors of the European universities and those of the Western Asia gathered in the conference.

The 8th edition of World Policy Conference began on Nov. 20 and will run through Nov. 22, 2015 in Montreux, Swizerland. The conference covers a wide range of topics including global economic order, Israeli-Palestinian dialogue, Europe’s refugee crisis, and the future of the Middle East, among others.

World Policy Conference (WPC), founded in 2008, is an independent organization which aims to contribute to improving all aspects of governance, with a view to promoting a world that is more open and more prosperous of the diversity of nations. Its annual meeting, which is on a human scale, brings together leading figures from all five continents – political and business leaders, representatives of civil society, academics and journalists – to examine, discuss and suggest constructive solutions to major regional and international challenges.

22.11.15

TEHRAN (ISNA)- Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister for Arab and African Countries Hossein Amir-Abdollahian arrived in Switzerland to join ‘World Policy Conference.’

He is scheduled to outline Iran’s views regarding developments in western Asia.

He would also discuss and evaluate Palestine, Syria and Yemen situations as well developments in other crisis-hit countries.

The Iranian official is going to answer questions of political officials, diplomats as well as university lecturers of Europe and West

Asia attending the conference.

22.11.15

Iman Chairman Ribal Al-Assad recently took part in the final debate at the World Policy Conference in Montreux, Switzerland. The panel was chaired by Dominique Moïsi, Special Advisor at the Paris based Institut Français des Relations Internationales.

Other participants included:

Miguel Ángel Moratinos, former Spanish Minister of Foreign Affairs

Bilahari Kausikan, Policy Advisor in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Singapore and Ambassador-at-Large

Narendra Taneja, Chairman of the Energy Security Group FICCI (Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry) and President of World Energy Policy Summit

Meir Sheetrit, former Israeli Minister of the Interior, Minister of Housing & Construction, Minister of Finance, Minister of Justice, Minister of Transportation and Minister of Education, Culture & Sport

Renaud Girard, journalist at ‘Le Figaro’ and editor at ‘Questions Internationales’

Mona Makram Ebeid, Egyptian Senator and Member of the Senate Constitutional Committee.

Ribal’s speech covered the topics of Islamic extremism and the ongoing crises in Syria and the Middle East. After speaking, Ribal made the following statement:

“I would like to express my regret that His Excellency the Qatari Foreign Minister was not in the room for the final session as I would have liked him to hear what I have to say but apparently he refuses to be in the same room as me ! And this is Qatar’s top diplomat!

This is despite the fact that I was exiled from my country as a child and have been a vocal critic of the regime all my adult life.

I’m afraid this kind of narrow-mindedness must cast doubt on Qatar’s claims to be committed to democracy in Syria and to inclusive dialogue rather than sectarian division and conflict.

It’s true that I have been critical of Qatar precisely because of its support for extremist groups like al-Nusra, the Muslim Brotherhood and others in my country.

I believe it shows that they are not interested in democracy at all.

On the contrary, they are afraid of a domino effect bringing democracy home to Qatar so they prefer to stoke sectarian conflict in Syria and the region.

So while I regret the absence of His Excellency, these are things that have to be said as I hope all true pluralists and democrats will agree.”

Santé et gouvernance mondiale: C Bréchot B Badré, L Fresco #worldpolicyconf

22.11.15

 

Total est la seule grande « major » mondiale présente au Moyen-Orient qui n’y dispose pas d’une base de ressources domestiques. – Vahid Salemi/AP/SIPA

 

Total n’ayant aucune base de ressources domestiques au Moyen-Orient, il est régulièrement amené à trouver des accords avec les pays producteurs.

Des pays du Moyen-Orient en voie de « libanisation », d’autres comme le Yemen, la Libye ou l’Irak où l’Etat a disparu, des rivalités politico-religieuses qui s’exacerbent avec le retour de l’Iran dans le jeu diplomatique et partout une menace terroriste accrue… « Je n’ai jamais vu une situation d’instabilité aussi grande », reconnaît Patrick Pouyanné, le patron de Total. La quatrième « major » mondiale présente la particularité d’être la seule grande à ne pas disposer d’une base de ressources domestiques. « Nous sommes donc amenés à trouver en permanence des accords avec les pays producteurs », ajoute le directeur général du groupe qui s’exprimait à l’occasion de la World Policy Conference réunie cette année à Montreux, en Suisse.

Dans cet environnement instable, le patron de Total avance avec deux boussoles : l’histoire et la géographie. La géographie de l’énergie renseigne sur les rapports de force : seulement cinq pays détiennent les deux-tiers des réserves de pétrole de la planète, le Venezuela, l’Arabie Saoudite, le Canada, l’Iran et l’Irak. « Avec la Russie, le Koweit et les Emirats Arabes Unis, on arrive à 80% des réserves mondiales », rappelle-il. A eux seuls, les pays du Moyen Orient détiennent la moitié des réserves même s’ils ne comptent que pour 30% de la production mondiale. « Ils ne “surproduisent” pas, ce qui fait qu’ils ont le temps devant eux », ajoute Patrick Pouyanné.

La géographie du gaz est également éclairante car deux pays, Iran et Russie, détiennent un tiers des réserves mondiales. « Avec le Qatar et le Turkmenistan, on arrive à 60% », ajoute le patron de Total. Le Moyen-Orient aujourd’hui traversé par des tensions extrêmes possède 40% des réserves mondiales de gaz, l’énergie appelée à croître le plus dans les années à venir. Mais là encore, la région ne « surproduit » pas : ce sont les Etats-Unis et la Russie qui, avec 40% de la production mondiale, sollicitent le plus leurs réserves.

Le poids du Moyen-Orient sur le marché du pétrole et du gaz et l’instabilité politique qui y règne devraient propulser les cours de l’or noir vers les sommets. Pourtant, il n’en est rien et il faut cette fois faire appel à l’histoire pour le comprendre ce paradoxe. « L’Opep a été créée en 1960 pour permettre aux pays producteurs d’échapper à la tutelle des grandes compagnies pétrolières, les fameuses “sept soeurs », qui maintenaient le prix du pétrole très bas, autour de 2 dollars le baril », dit Patrick Pouyanné. Cette stratégie a fonctionné : entre 1973 et 1979, le baril passe de 3 à 40 dollars le baril et les pays du Golfe acquièrent un poids politique inédit.

Mais cette stratégie de l’Opep a « trop bien marché », en quelque sorte, ce qui fait que dans les années 1980 et 1990, la demande chute. « Le pétrole cher a cassé le marché et les pays consommateurs se sont mis à développer des sources d’énergie alternatives ou à développer les zones off shore comme en Mer du Nord ». Le baril atteint un point bas à 10 dollars en 1986 et reste peu cher pendant quinze ans, jusqu’à la fin du XXème siècle.

« Le prix n’est remonté qu’au début des années 2000 du fait du développement de la Chine », poursuit Patrick Pouyanné. S’en est suivie une décennie (2005-2015) de pétrole cher, autour de 80-100 dollars qui a produit le même scénario que trente ans plus tôt : le prix élevé a encouragé la recherche de nouvelles technologies avec le pétrole et le gaz non conventionnel. D’où la division des prix par deux en un an. « Ce n’est pas la géopolitique mais tout simplement l’économie, le niveau de la demande, qui explique le niveau des prix du pétrole », insiste le patron de Total.

Les tensions extrêmes auxquelles on assiste vont-elles changer la donne ? Compte tenu des investissements déjà lancés, les capacités de production vont continuer de croître jusqu’à la fin de la décennie. En revanche, plusieurs pays vont rester en marge du marché de manière durable: à cause des destructions opérées par Daech, la Libye ne produit qu’un tiers de ce qu’elle pourrait extraire. A 40 ou 50 dollars le baril, l’Irak ne peut financer aucun investissement nouveau pour développer ses champs. Au Yemen, la production de gaz a dû être pratiquement stoppée à cause de l’avancée d’Al Qaeda… « Tout le monde s’est tellement souvent trompé sur les prix que je ne fais aucune prévision… », dit le patron de Total.

Nicolas Barré

22.11.15

Chairman of the IMAN Foundation, Ribal Al-Assad, recently attended the 2015 World Policy Conference in Montreux, Switzerland, which was opened by Didier Burkhalter, Federal Councillor, Head of the Federal Department of Foreign Affairs, Switzerland.

The World Policy Conference was founded by Mr. Thierry de Montbrial in 2008 and is an independent organisation which aims to contribute to improving all aspects of governance, with a view to promoting a world that is more open, more prosperous, fairer and more respectful of the diversity of States and nations.

Its annual meeting, which is on a human scale, brings together leading figures from all five continents – political and business leaders, representatives of civil society, academics and journalists – in a climate of trust and a spirit of tolerance to examine, discuss and suggest constructive solutions to major regional and international challenges.

Ribal’s speech covered the topics of Islamic extremism and the crisis in the Middle East. After speaking, Ribal made the following statement:

“I would like to express my regret that His Excellency the Qatari Foreign Minister was not in the room for the final session as I would have liked him to hear what I have to say but apparently he refuses to be in the same room as me ! And this is Qatar’s top diplomat!

This is despite the fact that I was exiled from my country as a child and have been a vocal critic of the regime all my adult life.

I’m afraid this kind of narrow-mindedness must cast doubt on Qatar’s claims to be committed to democracy in Syria and to inclusive dialogue rather than sectarian division and conflict.

It’s true that I have been critical of Qatar precisely because of its support for extremist groups like al-Nusra, the Muslim Brotherhood and others in my country.

I believe it shows that they are not interested in democracy at all.

On the contrary, they are afraid of a domino effect bringing democracy home to Qatar so they prefer to stoke sectarian conflict in Syria and the region.

So while I regret the absence of His Excellency, these are things that have to be said as I hope all true pluralists and democrats will agree.”

The World Policy Conference is always attended by prominent politicians, diplomats and leaders. Those who attended this year included:

Soumeya Abdelatif: First Vice President of North/South dialogue for Arab countries and the Mediterranean at the Robert Schuman Institute for Europe.

Jean Abiteboul: President of Cheniere Marketing Ltd, a 100% subsidiary of Cheniere Energy, Inc., a Houston based company specializing in liquefied natural gas importation and exportation.

Masood Ahmed: Director of the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department since November 2008.

Shameem Ahsan: Ambassador of Bangladesh to the Swiss Confederation and Permanent Representative to the United Nations Office and other International Organizations in Geneva.

Saliou Akadiri: Minister of Foreign Affairs, African Integration, Francophonie and Beninese Diaspora.

Abdulmajeed Al-Shatti: Member of the Supreme Petroleum Council in Kuwait.

Meshal Bin Hamad Al-Thani: Ambassador of the State of Qatar to France since 2013.

Mariam Aladji Boni Diallo: Diplomat, Special Advisor, Diplomatic Affairs, to the President of the Republic of Benin since 2007.

Manaf Alhajeri: Chief Executive Officer of Kuwait Financial Center, better known as Markaz since March 2004, one of the leading asset management and investment banking entities in the Middle East with a strategic focus to achieve regional leadership.

Patrick Allard: Consultant on international economic issues to the Policy Planning Staff, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, France.

Hossein Amirabdollahian: Deputy Foreign Minister for Arab and African Countries, Islamic Republic of Iran, since 2011.

Youssef Amrani: Chargé de mission, Royal Cabinet, Morocco.

Simeon Anguelov: Advisor to the President of the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences.

Marie-Claire Aoun: Director of the Center for Energy at the French Institute for International Relations (Ifri) and lecturer at Paris Dauphine University.

Olivier Appert: Chairman of the Conseil Français de l’Energie and the French committee of the World Energy Council.

Bertrand Badré: Managing Director and World Bank Group Chief Financial Officer.

Thomas Bagger: Head of Policy Planning at the German Federal Foreign Office.

Taeho Bark: Professor and former Dean at the Graduate School of International Studies (GSIS) of Seoul National University.

François Barrault: Chairman and founder of FDB Partners SPRL an investment and advisory firm in TMT and publishing.

Nicolas Barré: Managing Editor of Les Echos. He served as Deputy Managing Editor at Le Figaro (2005-2008).

Marek Belka: President, Narodowy Bank Polski and Professor of Economics.

Arié Bensemhoun: Executive Director, ELNET, since 2011.

Marie-Roger Biloa: CEO, The Africa International Media Group, Media Consultant and Adviser on African Affairs.

Khalid Bin Mohammed Al Attiyah: Minister of Foreign Affairs of the State of Qatar since 2013.

Georgi Bliznashki: Former Prime Minister of Bulgaria (2014).

Prince Boadu: CEO and co-founder of MapTech Logistics Limited, a company that uses the power of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to solve business problems by developing and deploying GIS based applications.

Matthias Bonning: Chief Operating Officer and Head of Research, oekom research AG.

Othman Bouabid: Interior Ministry of the Kingdom of Morocco.

Charles-Edouard Bouée: CEO of Roland Berger.

François-Xavier Bouis: Founder and President of Compagnie Financière Jacques Cœur – CFJC.

Christian Bréchot: President of the Institut Pasteur.

Boro Bronza: Ambassador of Bosnia and Herzegovina to Switzerland since 2013.

Wolfgang Amadeus Bruelhart: Ambassador, Head Middle East and North Africa Division, Swiss Foreign Ministry since 2012.

François Bujon de l’Estang: President, FBE International Consultants.

Jean Burelle: Chairman & CEO of Burelle and Honorary Chairman of Plastic Omnium.

Didier Burkhalter: Federal Councillor, Head of the Federal Department of Foreign Affairs (FDFA), Switzerland, since 2012.

André Caillé: Director of several corporations, including Junex Inc., an oil and gas exploration corporation, for which he is a Senior Strategic Advisor.

Jean-Yves Carfantan: Senior Consultant, he runs AgroBrasConsult, a Brazilian consulting company specializes in agricultural markets and investments and based in São Paulo.

Yigal B. Caspi: Ambassador of Israel to Switzerland and Liechtenstein since 2012.

François Chabannes: Co-President of the Fondation Alcen pour la Connaissance des Energies (raising awareness and knowledge of energies).

Philippe Chalmin: Professor of Economic History and Director of the Master of International Affairs at Paris-Dauphine University, Founder of the Cercle Cyclope, main european research institute on raw materials markets.

Korn Chatikavanij: Former Finance Minister of the Kingdom of Thailand (2008-2011).

Mohamed Cherkaoui: Emeritus University Professor and Emeritus Research Director, National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS), Paris.

Seán Cleary: Executive Vice-Chairman of the FutureWorld Foundation and Chairman of Strategic Concepts (Pty) Ltd.

Laurent Cohen-Tanugi: Founder and managing partner, Laurent Cohen-Tanugi Avocats.

Corinne Colloc’h: Head of Corporate Development, Airbus Group.

Bertrand Collomb, Honorary Chairman of Lafarge, who has just merged to form LafargeHolcim.

Richard Cooper: Maurits C. Boas Professor of International Economics at Harvard University since 1981.

Nelson W. Cunningham: President and Co-founder of McLarty Associates.

Daniel Dăianu: Professor of economics, The School of Political and Administrative Studies in Bucharest and member of the Board of the Central Bank of Romania.

Pierre Dassas: Chairman of The House of the Rising Stars Foundation (Geneva, Switzerland), Chairman of the European Leadership Network (Diplomacy & Defense issues, USA – Europe – Middle East).

Dominique David: Advisor to the Executive Chairman, Ifri, and Editor of Politique étrangère. Former Executive Vice-President of Ifri.

Alain Dejammet: Ambassador of France. He began to work at the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs as Head of the Press and Information Department (1981-1985) and then became Head of the North Africa and Middle-East Department (1985-1989).

Kemal Dervis: Vice President and Director of Global Economy and Development at the Brookings Institution and Senior Advisor at Sabanci University.

Jean Desazars de Montgailhard: Special Adviser of LafargeHolcim General Manager.

Christine Desouches: Honorary lecturer at the Université de Paris I (Panthéon-Sorbonne) and expert-consultant to international organisations.

Marième Diop: Desk Manager, President’s Delivery Unit, Senegal.

Božidar Djelić: Managing Director at Lazard Sovereign Group since 2014.

François Drouin: Chairman of the Board for the Autoroutes et Tunnel du Mont Blanc and of Société Française du Tunnel Routier du Fréjus, Vice President of the French Public Investment Bank (BPI), President of ETI FINANCE. Former CEO of OSEO (the French Agency for Innovation and SMEs financing).

Sandrine Duchêne: Group Head of Public Affairs, Axa Group.

Karim El Aynaoui: Managing Director of OCP Policy Center and advisor to the CEO and Chairman of OCP.

Andrea Elscheková Matisová: Ambassador of the Slovak Republic to the Swiss Confederation and the Principality of Liechtenstein since 2014.

Emmanuelle Fauchart: Professor in entrepreneurship and innovation management at the University of Strasbourg.

Dominique Flavio: CEO & Founding Partner of DynaGrow Fair Trade, DynaGrow (SL) and DynaCorp Investment, an agribusiness group specializing in fair trade and sustainable agriculture in countries with low development index and focused on producing and trading cocoa, coffee & rice in West Africa.

Eve Fofana: Deputy Country Manager, General Electric, Côte d’Ivoire.

Michel Foucher: Chair of applied Geopolitics at College of World Studies (FMSH-ENS) since 2013.

Jacob Frenkel: Chairman of JPMorgan Chase International and Chairman of the Board of Trustees of the Group of Thirty (G-30).

Louise Fresco: President of Wageningen University and Research Centre, in The Netherlands since 2014.

Jonathan T. Fried: Canada’s Ambassador and Permanent Representative to the World Trade Organization (WTO).

Lorenzo Gascón: Academician and Vice-Chairman of the Royal Academy of Economic and Financial Sciences of Spain.

Alexandra Gatej: Executive Director of Maldon & Wat since 2011.

Jean-Louis Georgelin: Grand Chancellor of the Legion of Honor and Chancellor of the National Order of Merit since 2010.

Nicolas (de) Germay: Chief Operating Officer WPC.

Renaud Girard: Senior reporter and war correspondent at Le Figaro.

Thomas Gomart: Director of Ifri. Former Vice President for Strategic Development at Ifri (2010-2015).

Jean-Claude Gruffat: Managing Director Galileo Global Associates New York since 2014.

Gilles Guerin: Managing Partner, EFG Bank, Geneva.

Elisabeth Guigou: Member of the French Parliament and President of the Commission of Foreign Affairs at the Assemblée nationale.

Traian Halalai: President of Banca de Import Export a Romaniei – EximBank SA since 2012.

Kerry Halferty Hardy: Lecturer and consultant.

Jean-Pierre Hansen: Chairman of the Political and Prospective Energy Committee of ENGIE, Honorary Chairman of Electrabel, Chairman of the FOREM (Walloon Public Service for Employment and Training) and of SNCB Logistics and Director of Compagnie Maritime Belge (Anvers), Koninklijke BAM Groep (Utrecht).

Philippe Hardouin: Founder of CSPH International, a public affairs & communications consultancy company with a focus on energy, environment, industry matters and creative industries and in particular a strong involvement in digital economy.

Peter Harling: Special advisor Middle-East (based in Beirut and Riyadh), International Crisis Group since 2014.

Manuel Hassassian: Ambassador from Palestine to London.

Henri Hié: Vice President, Strategy & Parnerships in China, Air France.

Peter Hill: Director for Strategy, Foreign and Commonwealth Office.

Akinari Horii: Special Advisor and a member of the Board of Directors of the Canon Institute for Global Studies, a research think tank in Tokyo, Japan.

SaKong Il: Chairman of the Institute for Global Economics; former Minister of Finance (1987-1988).

Yusuf Ziya Irbec: Former Member of the Turkish Parliament.

Mugur Isărescu: Governor of the National Bank of Romania since 1990.

Motoshige Itoh: Professor of international economics at the Graduate School of Economics, University of Tokyo.

Peter Jankowitsch: Member of the Directorate of the Austro-French Centre for Rapprochement in Europe.

Sabine Jansen: Senior lecturer at Conservatoire national des arts et metiers (CNAM), Paris, and Research Fellow at Centre d’histoire de Sciences Po (CHSP), Paris.

Vuk Jeremić: President of the Center for International Relations and Sustainable Development (CIRSD).

Qingguo Jia: Dean of the School of International Studies of Peking University.

Krishan Jindal: Chief Executive Officer of NABARD Consultancy Services (NABCONS).

Mohamed Kabbaj: President of Lafarge Morocco, Chancelor of Euro-Mediterranean university of Fès and member of the Hassan II Academy of Science and Technology.

Karl Kaiser: Adjunct Professor at the Kennedy School and Director of the Program on Transatlantic Relations of the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University.

Labib Kamhawi: Chairman and CEO of several firms, including CESSCO, Chemical Supplies & Services Co. and Delta Energy Services Co.

Sergei Karaganov: Honorary Chairman of the Presidium of the non-governmental Council on Foreign and Defense Policy.

Bilahari Kausikan: Ambassador-at-Large and Policy Advisor in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Singapore.

Jean (de) Kerguiziau de Kervasdoué: Emeritus Professor of Economy and Health Management at the Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers and founder of the Pasteur/CNAM School of Public Health, member of the French Academy of Ingeneering.

Anne-Laure Kiechel: Partner, Sovereign Advisory, Rothschild & Cie.

Mari Kiviniemi: OECD Deputy Secretary-General since August 2014.

Christian Koch: Director of the Gulf Research Center Foundation in Geneva, Switzerland.

Hervé Koffi: Country Manager for Côte d’Ivoire, General Electric, since 2014.

Haïm Korsia: Chief Rabbi of France since 2014.

Pawel Kowal: Assistant professor in the Institute of Political Studies at the Polish Academy of Sciences.

Bruno Lafont: Co-chairman of the Board of Directors, LafargeHolcim since 2015.

Mohamed Laichoubi: Former Minister of Labor and Social protection and Minister of Youths and Sports, Algeria.

Otto Lampe: Ambassador of the Federal Republic of Germany to Switzerland and Liechtenstein.

Liliane Lebron de Wenger: Ambassador of Paraguay to Switzerland and Liechtenstein since 2014.

Hye-min Lee: G20 Sherpa and Ambassador for International Economic Affairs, Republic of Korea.

Bernardino Leon Gross: Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya since 2015.

Jean-David Levitte: Distinguished fellow, Brookings Institution and member of the International Advisory Board of the Atlantic Council of the United States. Former Senior Diplomatic Adviser and sherpa of President Nicolas Sarkozy.

André Lévy-Lang: Member of the board of Institut français des relations internationales (Ifri), affiliate emeritus professor in Finance at Paris-Dauphine University, non-executive Chairman of Les Echos, vice-chairman of the supervisory board ofRothschild et Cie ,chairman of Fondation du Risque and Institut Louis Bachelier.

Susan Liautaud: Founder of Susan Liautaud & Associates Limited (SLA), a consultancy in ethics matters internationally.

His Serene Highness Prince Michael of Liechtenstein: H.S.H. Prince Michael of Liechtenstein is the founder and chairman of Geopolitical Information Service AG, as well as president of the think tank ECAEF (European Centre of Austrian Economics Foundation).

John Lipsky: Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy Institute at Johns Hopkins University’s Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS).

Hubert Loiseleur des Longchamps: Senior Vice President Public Affairs, Total since 2010.

James Lowenstein: Co-Founder of the French American Foundation.

Fyodor Lukyanov: Founding editor of Russia in Global Affairs, journal published with participation of Foreign Affairs.

Daniela Lulache: Chief Executive Officer of Nuclearelectrica, the only nuclear energy producer in Romania, since 2013.

Mona Makram-Ebeid: Egyptian Senator and Member of the Senate Constitutional Committee since 2012.

Manu Mallikarjun: Social entrepreneur working in the fields of International Relations & Development.

Hervé Mariton: French Member of Parliament, former Minister and Mayor of Crest.

Tatsuo Masuda: Visiting professor at the NUCB Graduate School on energy-climate nexus and geopolitics, and board member of SOC Corporation in Tokyo, chairman of FairCourt Capital in London and senior advisor to Elion House in Singapore.

Jean-Claude Meyer: Vice-chairman of Rothschild Europe.

Dominique Moïsi: Special Adviser at Ifri.

Michael Moller: Director-General of the United Nations Office at Geneva.

Thierry (de) Montbrial: Thierry de Montbrial is Executive Chairman of the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri), which he founded in 1979.

Mario Monti: Chairman of the High Level Group on Own Resources, European Commission. Former Prime Minister of Italy and President of Bocconi University, Milan.

Miguel Ángel Moratinos: Former Minister of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation of Spain (2004-2010).

Pierre Morel: Director of the Pharos Observatory of cultural and religious pluralism.

Yassine Moustanjidi: Architect and Urban Planner, Klaus Müller GMBH, Germany.

Mayankote Kelath Narayanan: Former Governor of the State of West Bengal, Director of the Intelligence Bureau and Chairman of the Joint Intelligence Committee.

Samir Nasr: President, ECE Capital.

Vitaly Naumkin: Director, Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS) since 2009.

Patrick Nicolet: Member of the Group Management Board, Capgemini.

Yukari Niwa Yamashita: Board Member, Director, The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ).

François Nordmann: Former Ambassador of Switzerland to France (2002-2007).

Dan Oiknine: Chairman, Chamber of Commerce and Industry France India, since 2009.

Yukio Okamoto: President of Okamoto Associates.

Arkebe Oqubay: Minister and special Advisor to the Prime Minister of Ethiopia.

Shotaro Oshima: Chairman of the Institute for International Economic Studies (IIES) and Visiting Professor at the Graduate School of Public Policy, University of Tokyo.

Fathallah Oualalou: Economist and Moroccan politician.

In-kook Park: President of the Korea Foundation for Advanced Studies.

Pericles-Paul Petalas: Chief Executive Officer, EFG Bank European Financial Group SA.

Jean-Louis Platteau: EFG Bank, Geneva.

Benoit Pleska: Seasoned Executive operating in Eastern Europe since the early ’90 (Hungary, Bulgaria, Ukraine & Romania).

Patrick Pouyanné: Chief Executive Officer and President of the Executive Committee, Total.

Catalin Predoiu: First Vice President National Liberal Party, member EPP.

Pierre Prieux: President of Alcen, group composed of high technology companies in the fields of defense, energy, medical machines and aeronautics.

Yide Qiao: Vice Chairman & Secretary General of Shanghai Development Research Foundation (SDRF).

Mireille Quirina: Senior Executive Coach and Business Consultant.

Itamar Rabinovich: President of the Israel Institute (Washington and Jerusalem).

Rasvan Radu: CEO, UniCredit România.

Françoise Rauser: Executive Secretary of the IEC Affiliate Country Programme, a free programme that comprises 83 developing countries – half of all countries that participate in the IEC.

Anita Ricquier: Singaporean entrepreneur.

Antoine Rostand: Senior Advisor, Schlumberger, after serving as President of Schlumberger Business Consulting, an independent business unit of Schlumberger that he founded in 2004.

Jean-Pierre Roth: Chairman of the Board of Directors, Cantonal Bank of Geneva.

René Roudaut: French Ambassador to Switzerland and Liechtenstein since 2014.

Henry Roux-Alezais: Managing director of Sogeric and honorary consul of Ecuador in Marseille.

Arthur Rutishauser: Editor in chief of SonntagsZeitung since two years (December 2013).

Marcelo Sanchez Sorondo: Chancellor of the Pontifical Academy of Sciences and the Pontifical Academy of Social Sciences since 1998.

Tadakatsu Sano: Attorney-at-law at Jones Day.

Louis Schweitzer: General Commissioner for Investment.

Narcís Serra: President of IBEI, Institut Barcelona d’Estudis Internacionals.

Riccardo Sessa: Italian Ambassador (rtd.), former career diplomat.

Meir Sheetrit: Member of the Israeli Knesset for the Hatnua Party.

Olivier Sigg: Partner in the Geneva private client practice of Froriep, one of Switzerland’s main law firms with offices in Geneva, Zurich, Zug, Lausanne, London and Madrid.

Pierre Sigonney: Chief Economist, Corporate Strategy of Total.

Bernard Siman: Senior Fellow and Adviser to the Board of Geopolitical Information Service AG.

Eugen Simion: President of the National Science and Art Foundation.

Maya Simionescu: President of the Section of Biological Sciences of the RomanianAcademy.

Tobby Simon: Founder and President of Synergia Foundation.

Jean-Marc Simon: French Ambassador.

Jaromir Sokolowski: Ambassador of Poland to Switzerland since 2015.

Thierry Soret: Focal point and policy advisor at UNDP for all G20 related matters.

Kostas G. Stamoulis: Director, Strategic Programme Leader, Food Security and Nutrition in FAO.

Julien Steimer: Secretary-General of AXA France.

Marius Stoian: President of Club România. He started his career in journalism in 1990 as editor of the Tineretul Liber newspaper.

Riad Tabet: President of Berit International Holding SA, President of Batiliban-France, Franco-Arab Consortium for development, board member of the executive committee of the Franco-Arab Chamber of Commerce, Paris, board member and founding member of the Lebanese American Chamber of Commerce, Beyrouth.

Kelvin Tan: Deputy Director, Monetary Authority of Singapore.

Nobuo Tanaka: President of The Sasakawa Peace Foundation since 2015.

Narendra Taneja: Chairman of Energy Security Group of the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI).

Karen Tang: Executive Director of The Better Hong Kong Foundation since 2006.

Mostafa Terrab: Chairman and CEO of OCP Group.

Agnès Touraine: CEO of Act III Consultants, a management consulting firm dedicated to digital transformation.

Jean-Claude Trichet: Former President of the European Central Bank and Honorary Governor of Banque de France.

Antonio Trombetta: Ambassador of Argentina to Switzerland since 2013.

Sophie Turrettini: General Secretary of the Fondation Dr Henri Dubois-Ferrière Dinu Lipatti and board member of several charity foundations in Geneva. Member of the board of the WPC Foundation since 2013.

Justin Vaïsse: French historian and the current Director of Policy Planning at the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Hubert Vedrine: Founder of Hubert Védrine Conseil, a public affairs consultancy that specializes in foreign, economic, and geopolitical affairs.

Franciscus Verellen: Member of the Institut de France, former director of the Ecole Française d’Extrême-Orient (2004-2014), where he holds the chair in History of Daoism and currently serves as director of the Hong Kong Centre.

Gabriela von Habsburg: Professor at VADS, Free University, Tbilisi since 2014.

François Wat: Senior Partner, Co-Head of Global Equity Advisory, Rothschild Paris since 2008.

Bruno Weymuller: Member of Total Professeurs Associés, of the French Energy Council and of the board of directors of the Economic Institute Research Coe-Rexecode.

Thomas Wilhelm: Doctor of Laws, lawyer, Founder and Partner in the law firm Wilhelm & Büchel Rechtsanwälte since 1992.

Estelle Youssouffa: Independent broadcast journalist, TV reporter and news presenter.

Igor Yurgens: Chairman of the Management Board of the Institute of Contemporary Development.

Salim Zeeni: Chairman of the American Lebanese Chamber of Commerce (AmCham Lebanon).

Yunling Zhang: Professor, Academy Member and Director of International Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Science (CASS), Director of Center of Regional Security, CASS, Member of National Committee of Chinese Political Consultant Conference (since 2002), President of China Association of Asia-Pacific Studies.

Lionel Zinsou: Prime Minister in charge of economic development, evaluating public policy and promoting good governance in Benin.

Mbuih Zukane: Teacher, University of Dschang and CEO ICAD – Cameroon.

22.11.15

The President of the Center for International Relations and Sustainable Development (CIRSD) Vuk Jeremić took part in the prestigious World Policy Conference (WPC). This annaual high-level event, organized by French Institute for International Relations (IFRI), took place in Montreux, Switzerland between November 20 and 22, 2015.

Jeremić spoke on one of the central panels devoted to the refugee crisis in Europe.

The CIRSD President reiterated that Europe has to play a leading role in the ongoing diplomatic efforts to find a political solution for Syria’s future, as well as create conditions for a much needed ceasefire. Jeremić said that setting up barbed wire fences along the borders of the Schengen space is neither an optimal solution nor will it be enough to solve the refugee crisis. On the other hand, this contributes to more tension in the Balkans and further delays the arrival at a solution.

“The refugee crisis can be permanently resolved only by tackling the source of the crisis in the Middle East, and Europe should be the one to demonstrate unity, leadership, and capacity for decisive action,” Jeremić said. “If Europe, and Germany and France as its leaders, fail to undertake decisive steps towards launching a coordinated and inclusive international action—one that would include both the U.S. and Russia—no one else will do it instead. The crisis will thus continue to destroy the fabric of Europe, eventually resulting in unfathomable consequences for the very future of the EU.”

Besides the CIRSD President, the panel featured remarks by the honorary president of the German Council on Foreign Relations Karl Kaiser, Turkey’s former minister of economy Kemal Derviş, the honorary president of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy of Russia Sergey Karaganov, and France’s former minister for foreign affairs Hubert Védrine.

This year’s World Policy Conference gathered several hundred high-level participants, many of which included business leaders, influential public intellectuals, activists, and policymakers.
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Aside from the refugee crisis, other important topics raised during the conference included the future of the Middle East, the future of the global economy, and the increasingly turbulent political and economic outlook of East Asia

22.11.15

Pour Michel Foucher, il est urgent de réfléchir aussi à la diffusion des images de propagande – DR

 

La question du terrorisme a largement dominé la huitième édition de la World Policy Conference, organisée à Montreux. Michel Foucher, titulaire de la chaire de géopolitique appliquée au Collège d’études mondiales explique les différentes stratégies de lutte contre les groupes terroristes.

Michel Foucher (Géographe et titulaire de la chaire de géopolitique appliquée au Collège d’études mondiales)

Après les attentats au Cameroun, au Mali, et la mise en alerte maximum, comment doit-on lutter contre la mondialisation des actes terroristes ?

Il n’y a pas de mondialisation du terrorisme islamiste. On note des actions régionales, comme au Cameroun, perpétrées par Boko Haram qui est en difficulté en raison de la coordination des armées des Etats africains affectés et soutenus par la France. De même AQMI agit au Mali à partir de la Libye. Au Sahel, le traitement militaire doit se poursuivre pour consolider ce qui a été acquis depuis deux ans avec les opérations Serval et Barkhane.

Mais les groupes terroristes sortent pourtant de leur territoire ?

Al Qaïda et ses filiales ainsi que Daech mènent des opérations transnationales, le plus souvent dans une surenchère de propagande. Leur objectif est double. D’abord attirer les troupes occidentales au sol en Syrie et en Irak et ensuite continuer leur recrutement tous azimuts par la mise en scène de leurs atrocités. Il convient de ne pas tomber dans le piège d’une action au sol. Et il est urgent de réfléchir à un boycott par nos télévisions et nos réseaux sociaux des images de propagande qui attirent des jeunes radicalisés. Si nous restons sidérés par les images, nous serons statufiés comme la femme de Loth.

Comment combattre Daech sur leur territoire?

Le pseudo proto-Etat islamique a trois bases territoriales, deux en Irak et une en Syrie. Il faut une stratégie pour chacune d’entre elles.

Dans le triangle sunnite (Ramadi, le sud de Tikrit et l’est de Bagdad) qui fut la base territoriale du régime minoritaire de Saddam Hussein, Daech a liquidé des élites et offre de l’argent, des emplois et des armes aux classes pauvres. Il faudrait ramener les tribus sunnites dans le camp de Bagdad.

De son côté, Mossoul a été conquise en juin 2014 car elle n’était pas défendue par l’armée irakienne. C’est une ville de trois millions d’habitants et on ne discerne pas pour l’instant les forces capables de reprendre cette ville, ni les milices kurdes ni les milices chiites. Dans cette ville il n’y a pas de forces sunnites assez fortes et efficaces. Une tactique d’asphyxie et d’isolement est envisageable. La coalition devra bombarder les centres de Daech à Mossoul.

Enfin, en Syrie, Daech occupe des villes donnant accès à la frontière turque mal sécurisée et le long des villes de l’Euphrate moyen. Les avancées militaires des Kurdes à Kobane et à Sinjar vont se poursuivre. Les actions militaires de la coalition semblent efficaces. Une solution militaire peut ici réduire l’emprise de Daech en parallèle aux réunions diplomatiques de Vienne, et bientôt de Paris, sur la Syrie.

Quelles sont les motivations des terroristes à Bamako ?

L’attaque contre le Radisson Blu a Bamako intervient alors que l’Etat Islamique occupe le devant de la scène avec les attentats du 13 novembre à Paris. Mokhtar Belmokhtar,d’origine algérienne et responsable du carnage de janvier 2013 à In Amenas dans le sud algérien, a revendiqué l’attentat. Il est le représentant d’Al Qaïda au Maghreb Islamique (AQMI). Ces attaques n’ont donc rien à voir avec Daech. En revanche, c’est une attaque contre le pouvoir malien et sa capacité à faire appliquer les accords d’Alger signés cette année avec la rébellion touareg. L’objectif est également de fixer au sud l’armée malienne et l’empêcher ainsi de se déployer au nord du Mali. Ce qui pourrait gêner le passage de certains trafics dans cette région.

Daech est pourtant en train de s’implanter en Afrique ?

C’est un problème nouveau. Il s’installe en Libye entre le gouvernement de Tripoli et le gouvernement de Tobrouk dans les bastions kaddhafistes de Syrte, pas très loin des terminaux pétroliers. Daech a une filière francophone, pas seulement française et belge, mais aussi en Afrique de l’Ouest où l’on parle français. On peut très bien imaginer –et Boko Haram a commencé à le faire- qu’il y ait des phénomènes d’allégeance et que s’ouvre, c’est une hypothèse, un troisième front pour la France.

Quel troisième front ?

Le premier est en France, on vient de s’en rendre compte. Le deuxième, c’est la Syrie et l’Irak. Le troisième c’est le Sahel. C’est un scénario qu’il serait déraisonnable de négliger. Même des mouvements régionaux locaux intra-maliens peuvent choisir des allégeances pour renforcer leur main. On a raison en France de s’inquiéter de ce qui se passe en Libye, sur le trou noir du Fezzan où il y a des tensions extrêmement fortes entre Touaregs et Toubou, chacun ne soutenant pas le même gouvernement et où pourraient s’installer des cellules instrumentalisées par la filiale de Daech qui est basée à Syrte. Il faut éviter que se poursuive la connexion entre les différents mouvements. Il faut disperser tout ça. Et cela veut dire que l’on est engagé pour longtemps. On a besoin, pour un certain nombre de missions -logistique, ravitaillement, entraînement, transport de troupes- de nos alliés européens. Nous, on doit se concentrer sur ce qu’on sait faire, le renseignement et l’action de force.

La situation peut-elle se stabiliser au Mali?

La réponse n’est pas militaire car il y a des questions socio-économiques et foncières structurelles. Il faut savoir qu’au 19ème siècle, il y a eu six djihads dans la bande sahalienne qui ont été stoppées par la colonisation britannique et française. Ces mouvements, comme ceux d’aujourd’hui, s’expliquent par des questions foncières et la volonté des Peul d’avoir les même droits que les Touaregs dans un pays, le Mali, essentiellement dirigé par les gens du Sud. Il faut donc un plan de développement. La France doit mobiliser l’union européenne. Notre effort collectif doit avoir une vision de stabilisation géopolitique.

(1) Auteur de Frontières d’Afrique. Pour en finir avec un mythe. Editions du CNRS.

Jacques Hubert-Rodier et Virginie Robert

Another interesting #worldpolicyconf at a time when geopolitics, social fabric & economic order are at crossroads

22.11.15

Predsednik CIRSD-a Vuk Jeremić učestvovao je na prestižnoj tradicionalnoj Konferenciji o globalnoj politici (World Policy Conference-WPC), koja se u organizaciji Francuskog instituta za medjunarodne odnose (IFRI) održala ove godine u Montrou (Montreux), Švajcarska, u periodu 20-22 novembar.

Jeremić je nastupio na jednom od centralnih panela, koji je bio posvećen izbegličkoj krizi u Evropi. 

Predsednik CIRSD-a je podvukao da Evropa mora imati odlučujuću ulogu u diplomatskim naporima da se iznadje političko rešenje za budućnost Sirije i stvore uslovi za hitnu obustavu ratnih dejstava u njoj. Jeremić je upozorio da podizanje bodljikavih žica u Evropi i na granicama Šengenskog prostora nije optimalno a ni dovoljno da bi se rešila izbegliča kriza, podižuci tenzije na Balkanu i odlazuci suštinsko rešavanje ovog fenomena.

“Izbeglička kriza se može suštinski i trajno resiti jedino delovanjem na uzroke te krize, na Bliskom istoku, a Evropa na ovom polju mora pokazati svoje jedinstvo, liderstvo, kao i kapacitet za odlučujuće delovanje”, istakao je predsednik CIRSD-a. “Ukoliko Evropa, predvodjena Nemackom i Francuskom,‎ ne preduzme odlucne korake u cilju pokretanja koordinirane medjunarodne akcije koja bi ukljucila sve vazne aktere u regionu, pre svega SAD I Rusiju, niko drugi to nece uciniti I kriza ce nastaviti da razara evropsko tkivo, sa potencijalno nesagledivim posledicama po buducnost EU”.

Pored Jeremića, na panelu su učestvovali, između ostalih, Karl Kaizer, počasni predsednik Nemačkog saveta za medjunarodne odnose; Kemal Dervis, bivši ministar ekonomije Turske I glavni ekonomista MMF; Sergej Karaganov, počasni predsednik Saveta za spoljnu i odbrambrenu politiku Rusije, kao i Iber Vedrine, nekadasnji francuski ministar spoljnih poslova.

Konferencija o globalnoj politici ove godine okupila je vise stotina ucesnika, međju kojima predstavnike političkih elita iz svih krajeva sveta, poslovne lidere, uticajne intelektualce i aktiviste.

Pored izbegličke krize u Evropi, glavne teme konferencije ove godine bile su budućnost Bliskog istoka, perspektive globalne ekonomije, kao i turbulentna političko-ekonomska situacija u istocnoj Aziji.

Privilege to join Hubert Vedrine, Kemal Dervis, et.al. at the panel on the European refugee crisis #WorldPolicyConf

22.11.15

L’avenir du Proche-Orient était au centre de la 8^e  édition du World policy conference à Montreux.

Nelson Cunningham, ancien conseiller spécial du président Clinton pour les affaires occidentales.

Ancien conseiller spécial du président Clinton, Nelson Cunnigham détaille la réaction du président Barack Obama aux événements dans cette région.

 Comment analysez-vous la réaction de l’administration Obama aux attentats de Paris le 13 novembre dernier ?

 Nelson Cunningham : L’approche du président Obama est ce que l’on appelle un « statu quo + ». Cela signifie faire ce que les États-Unis ont fait jusqu’à présent : s’efforcer de constituer une coalition avec les pays européens et du Moyen-Orient pour combattre Daech. À cela s’ajoute l’opération diplomatique d’ampleur lancée par le secrétaire d’État John Kerry pour réunir la Russie, l’Iran, les puissances européennes, la Turquie et les pays voisins pour trouver une solution en Syrie. Qui passerait par un accord avec Bachar Al Assad, un effort pour vaincre Daech et une solution à long terme pour l’avenir de la Syrie.

 Quel pourrait être l’accord avec Assad ?

 N. C. : Assad ne veut pas quitter le pouvoir. Il a des alliés, la Russie et l’Iran, qui ne veulent pas qu’il parte. La question est : qu’est-ce que les États-Unis peuvent leur offrir pour qu’ils forcent Assad à quitter le pays ou le pouvoir. Je pense que la solution pourrait être que Bachar al Assad nomme un gouvernement intérimaire et obtienne un sauf-conduit pour lui-même. Cela a déjà été fait par le passé.

 Et sur le plan militaire ?

 N. C. : Je pense que les Français vont être extrêmement agressifs contre Daech. C’est ce qu’il faut dans cette situation. Les Français n’ont cessé de prouver qu’ils étaient excellents pour les opérations aériennes, et pour celles effectuées par des forces spéciales ou des opérations ponctuelles, menées par des forces concentrées. Ce qu’ils ont fait en République centrafricaine et au Mali est tout simplement superbe. Ce qu’ils peuvent faire conjointement avec les forces spéciales américaines, la CIA et l’appui aérien peut être très efficace contre Daech, en Syrie et en Irak.

 Peut-on éviter d’envoyer des troupes au sol ?

 N. C. : L’expérience des États-Unis en Irak montre qu’envoyer des troupes au sol en grand nombre, nécessite un large soutien de la société et que cela n’apporte pas nécessairement la stabilité dans le pays. Les Français peuvent envisager d’envoyer des commandos en nombre limité pour frapper des objectifs très ciblés. En Syrie et en Irak, il faut que chiites et sunnites trouvent un équilibre politique stable. Et que parmi les sunnites, d’autres groupes que les combattants de Daech prennent en charge leur avenir.

 L’Otan pourrait-elle jouer un rôle dans la lutte contre Daech ?

 N. C. : La France pourrait invoquer l’article 5 du Traité de l’Atlantique Nord stipulant qu’une attaque armée contre un de ses membres sera considérée comme une attaque dirigée contre tous. C’est ce qu’ont fait les États-Unis après les attaques du 11 septembre 2001, ce qui a conduit à lancer la guerre contre les Talibans en Afghanistan. Mais la France ne l’a pas fait jusqu’ici. François Hollande a préféré avoir recours à un article similaire du Traité de Lisbonne. Je pense qu’il y a de bonnes raisons à cela, notamment stratégiques.

 Y a-t-il un risque de remise en cause des frontières au Proche-Orient, notamment en Syrie et en Irak ?

 N.C. : C’est une question très intéressante. Les accords Sykes-Picot qui sont à l’origine de la création de l’Irak et de la Syrie, ont aujourd’hui cent ans. Peut-être que cette guerre montre qu’ils ne signifient plus rien désormais. Je sais que l’Iran veut garder à tout prix telles quelles les frontières régionales. Je pense que la Turquie aussi, car elle craint que d’une remise en cause de ses frontières émerge un Kurdistan indépendant. Il y aura une forte pression pour garder la situation telle quelle.

 Est-il possible de reconstruire le Proche-Orient sans accord israélo-palestinien ?

 N. C. : Ce qui se passe actuellement en Irak et en Syrie est déconnecté du conflit israélo-palestinien. Le printemps arabe en Tunisie, en Égypte ou en Syrie avait sa logique propre. Mais cela pourrait offrir une opportunité pour résoudre cette question. Je pense que le secrétaire d’État John Kerry veut faire une nouvelle démarche en vue de la paix. Je ne sais pas si le gouvernement israélien y est prêt. Mais j’ai noté qu’en fin de semaine dernière, les États-Unis ont libéré l’espion israélien Jonathan Pollard. Je dirais que cela a un lien avec le voyage de Benyamin Netanyahou à Washington la semaine précédente. Si Obama a alors promis de relâcher Pollard, qu’a promis Netanyahou en échange ? On peut être optimiste et se dire qu’il peut s’agir d’une stratégie de paix à long terme.

Recueilli par Vincent de Féligonde (à Montreux)