Luis Alfonso De Alba

Ambassador of Mexico to the United Arab Emirates. He is a career diplomat. After entering the Mexican Foreign Service, he rose to the rank of Ambassador. He previously served as: Special Envoy of the United Nations Secretary General for the 2019 Climate Change Summit. Permanent Representative of Mexico to the Organization of the American States; to Austria, concurrent to Slovenia and Slovakia and to International Organizations based in Vienna; to the United Nations in New York; and to the United Nations Office and other International Organizations based in Geneva. He was also Special Representative for Climate Change at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Alternate Representative of Mexico to the United Nations Organization in New York, and Director General for the United Nations System for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He has held elected positions as: President of the 24th Session of the United Nations Commission on Crime Prevention and Criminal Justice, First President of the Human Rights Council, President of the Council of the International Organization for Migration and President of the Commission on Disarmament and International Security (First Commission) during the 59th Session of the United Nations General Assembly.

Isabelle Lasserre

Diplomatic Correspondent of Le Figaro. Previously, she has been Defense Correspondent, Correspondent in Russia and War Reporter (Bosnia, Chechya, Kosovo, Irak, Afghanistan…) for the same newspaper. She also works for Politique Internationale, the main European review dedicated to foreign affairs in French. Her last book, Macron –Putin, the dangerous relationship (L’Observatoire), was published last april.

Terje Roed-Larsen

Former United Nations Secretary General’s, Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process and Personal Representative to the Palestinian authority (PA) and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), at the rank of Under-Secretary-General (1994 – 1996 / 1999 – 2005), Terje Roed-Larsen graduated in Philosophy, History, and Sociology in the University of Oslo in 1976. He began his career as a Research assistant at the Institute for Sociology of Law of the University of Oslo (1973 – 1978), as a British Academy Wolfson Fellow, at the London School of Economics (LSE), then as Assistant professor at the Institute for Sociology of the Universities of Oslo, and of Bergen. He was Advisor to the Minister for Planning in the Government of Norway and Minister for Administration (1980), and at Norwegian Trade Unions (1981). From 1982 to 1993, he was Managing Director at the research Foundation Fafo, and became Special Advisor to the Norwegian Foreign Minister, at the rank of ambassador in 1994 and from 1997 to 1999. He also was Minister for Planning in 1996. He was UN Secretary-Generals Special Envoy to Lebanon, at the rank of Under-Secretary-General (2005 – 2015), and President and CEO of International Peace Institute (IPI), NY USA (2005 – 2020).

Mohammed Baharoon

Director of the Dubai Public Policy Research Center (b’huth) which he co-founded in 2002. Before that, he worked as Editor for Gulf Defense Magazine and a number of media outlets. He focuses on the interplay between geostrategy and policymaking in governance, stability, capacity building, and future-proofing. Mohammed Baharoon has also worked as Deputy Director of Watani (UAE’s first initiative on National Identity) and was also a founding member of the board of “Bussola Institute” a think tank in Brussels that focuses on the changing and emerging aspects of the partnership between the EU and the GCC member states. As part of his interest in the emerging geostrategic space of the Arabian Peninsula, Mohammed looks at the interconnected world order and the Global Connectivity Agenda UAE is developing across the region through arteries of trade, money, people, and data and the impact this had on its regional and global partnerships including regional and trans-regional initiatives like the Abrahamic Accords & I2U2.

Alexander Schönfelder

Ambassador of the Federal Republic of Germany to the UAE since 2022. He began his career in economics at the German Development Institute (DIE) in 1988, followed by a stint as a UN official with UNIDO from 1989 to 1993. In 1993, Ambassador Schönfelder joined the staff of the Federal Foreign Office and served in various foreign postings, including the United States, Thailand, Japan, Iraq, and Algeria. He held leadership positions such as Deputy Head of Division for International Energy Policy (2007 – 2011) and Head of Division for General Economic Issues in International Economic and Financial Policy (2014 – 2018). In 2018, he became Deputy Director General for Economic Policy, Foreign Trade Promotion, and Digital Transformation.

Willy Alberto Gómez Tirado

Ambassador of the Republic of Guatemala to the UAE. Concurrent Ambassador to Kingdom of Barhain, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and State of Kuwait. He previously served as Ambassador of the Republic of Guatemala to the Republic of China (Taiwan). He has been decorated with the Order of the Brilliant Star in degree of Grand Cordon by the government of the Republic of China (Taiwan). He served as Academic Rector and Dean of the Leadership School at the Universidad San Pablo de Guatemala. He was a member of the Group of advisors for the National Council of Science and Technology (CONCYT). In an Ad Honorem manner, he served as a Vice President of Guatemala Prospera, an organization that seeks the development of Guatemalan children and youth, and the formation of principle and values in organizations of the country. He was a Consultant for USAID in Educational Technology for projects oriented to develop professions in young people from marginal regions of Guatemala.

Clare Lombardelli

Chief Economist and G20 Finance Deputy of the OECD since May 2023. She ensures that the Department is at the forefront of economic thinking, coordinates the work of the Country and Policy Studies branches to create new opportunities and enhance cooperation with the whole of the OECD. Prior to joining the OECD, Ms. Lombardelli was the Chief Economic Advisor at HM Treasury. She started her career at the Bank of England working on monetary policy and financial markets and has also worked in 10 Downing Street as the Private Secretary for Economic Affairs to the Prime Minister. Ms. Lombardelli also worked as a Technical Advisor for the International Monetary Fund. A British national, she holds a Master’s Degree in Economics from London School of Economics and Political Science and a Bachelor’s Degree in Philosophy, Politics and Economics from Oxford University. She is a Visiting Professor at Kings College, London and a Visiting Fellow at Nuffield College, Oxford.

Terry Martin

Journalist and TV news anchor. Terry Martin is a Berlin-based broadcaster with decades of experience in international news. Formerly an anchor with CNN International, he is now Senior Anchor with DW News, Germany’s global service. He is also the Founder and Director of the research communications agency SPIA. As a television correspondent, he has provided live coverage from G7 summits, UN climate conferences, and multiple national elections. He has hosted scores of tv discussion programs and interviewed countless political and business leaders, scientists, and activists around the world. Frequently in demand as an event moderator, he has moderated major conferences for public and private-sector clients in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. He is a regular host at international conferences including The GLOBSEC Forum, The Warsaw Security Forum, The Delphi Forum, and the World Knowledge Forum in Seoul. He wrote the European Commission’s widely used guidebook “Communicating research for evidence-based policymaking”. Born in Canada, he studied English and philosophy at universities in the US (B.A. Elon College, Masters studies Wake Forest University) before moving to Germany shortly after the fall of The Berlin Wall.

Emmanuelle Trochu

Global Head of Official Institutions Coverage at Crédit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank. Emmanuelle Trochu started her career in 1994 in Banque de France as a forex trader and then Foreign Exchange Reserves Portfolio Manager. She participated in several European working groups to prepare the ECB foreign exchange reserves set up. She joined Credit Agricole group in 2000 as a Central Banks Sales. She became Global Head of the central bank sales team in 2006 and has worked in Paris in London. In 2016 she was appointed Head of Sales for Financial Institutions in France and Belgium on top of her role as Head of the Central banks sales team. She joined Ca-cib coverage in 2020, as Head of the Official Institutions sector. In this capacity she oversees the activity of Crédit Agricole CIB with Sovereigns, Supranationals, State Agencies, Sovereign Wealth Funds and  Central Banks, across geographies. Emmanuelle Trochu holds a master in French Litterature, she graduated from Institut d’Etudes Politiques de Paris and Ecole Supérieure de Commerce de Paris (Master in Finance). She is an Eisenhower Fellow (2015 global program).

Kamal R Vaswani

Ambassador of the Republic of Singapore to the United Arab Emirates, based in Abu Dhabi. Born in 1970, Ambassador Vaswani graduated with a Bachelor of Business Administration, Second Class Honours (Upper Division) from the National University of Singapore in 1995. He obtained a Masters in International Public Policy from the School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University in 2003, on a Singapore Government Scholarship. Ambassador Vaswani joined the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in July 1995. His first overseas assignment was as First Secretary at the Singapore High Commission in Kuala Lumpur from 1998 to 2002. Following his post-graduate studies, he served as an Assistant Director in the Policy, Planning & Analysis Directorate I (covering Southeast Asia). Ambassador Vaswani was posted as Counsellor at the Singapore Embassy in Jakarta from 2004 to 2008 and Deputy Permanent Representative at Singapore’s Permanent Mission to ASEAN from 2008 to 2009. He subsequently served as Deputy Director in the Southeast Asia Directorate from 2009 to 2012, and as Deputy Director-General for Southeast Asia from April 2012 to June 2015. Prior to his current appointment, Ambassador Vaswani was the Director-General for Europe from June 2015 to November 2019 anc concurrently Vice Dean (Academic)/Diplomatic Academy at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Singapore from July 2015 to November 2019. He was conferred the Commendation Medal in 2005 and Long Service Medal in 2018 as part of the Singapore National Day Awards.

Amir Ben Yahmed

Chief Executive Officer of Jeune Afrique Media Group. President of the Africa CEO Forum. After graduating from the INSEEC School of Business, Mr. Amir Ben Yahmed began his career at NYC-based investment banking firm Gruntal & Co. before joining Jeune Afrique Media Group, one of Africa’s leading media and event organisations. It is recognised internationally for its reach, authority, integrity and accuracy. In his capacity as Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Ben Yahmed actively pursues the Group’s strategy which is to provide essential news, expert analysis and services to Africa-focused clients around the world. In addition, Mr. Ben Yahmed is Founder and President of the AFRICA CEO FORUM, which, since its creation in 2012, has cemented its status as the foremost meeting of the African private sector. Each year, the Annual Summit of the AFRICA CEO FORUM brings together over 1,800 participants from more than 70 countries, including 40 African States. The 2022 edition saw the participation of more than 800 CEOs, 4 Heads of State, 100 Ministers, 100 heads of international development financial institutions and more than 200 journalists from Africa and overseas.

Philipp Offenberg

Senior Manager, Europe, Breakthrough Energy. Philipp Offenberg has spent several years building up expertise in the field of energy, climate action, and sustainability, while working in high-level public policy positions. He serves as Senior Manager on the Breakthrough Energy Europe team, having joined the team in January 2020 and is based in Brussels. Philipp is responsible for BE Europe’s EU-level policy engagement and Germany strategy. Between 2016-2019, Philipp worked as an Advisor on energy and climate policy in the strategy department of former European Commission President, Jean-Claude Juncker. Prior to that he was a Research Associate at both the King’s College London and at the Jacques Delors Institute Berlin. He also worked at the consulting firm Accenture, on the Utilities and Resources team.

François Gouyette

Chairman of Pro Oriente Conseil, Vice-Chairman for Public Diplomacy of The Global Diwan, Advisor to the Chairman of Diot-Siaci. François Gouyette has served as Ambassador of France from 2001 to 2023 in five Arab countries: UAE, Libya, Tunisia, Saudi Arabia and Algeria. He was previously DCM in Syria and Turkey. He has also been Diplomatic Advisor to the Minister of Interior and Ambassador in charge of the EUROMed process in the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He graduated in Law from the Paris University and in Arabic from the Oriental School in Paris.

Paul Rogers

Managing Partner of Caber Asset Management. Paul is Singapore based and runs his family office out of Singapore. He has ran Structured Finance for UBS & Lehman Brothers for Asia and subsequently ran a Private hedge fund group and real estate development companies building one of the major mixed used developments in Korea. He started out as an entrepreneur in venture business and has invested in and mentored start ups globally while based in Asia. He is focused on macro economic and geopolitical analysis as a framework for investing and security particularly given the current destruction of liberal democracy laws and social norms in the West resulting in the loss of individual and family rights and consequential loss of global relevance as the BRICS+ and global South seek to create an alternative to the prevalent Neo-Marxist identity politics social tyranny currently unfolding.

Els Torreele

Visiting Policy Fellow at the UCL Institute for Innovation & Public Purpose in London. She is a global health and innovation expert, focusing on transforming medical R&D to address priority health needs and ensure equitable access to knowledge and technologies where and when needed, including for epidemic preparedness and response. A Bio-Engineer and Ph.D. from Brussels University (VUB), for over 20 years she has combined scientific research, pharmaceutical R&D, policy analysis and research, and advocacy at Brussels University, Médecins Sans Frontières, Drugs for Neglected Diseases initiative, and Open Society Foundations. She is now an independent researcher and consultant including working with Rt. Hon. Helen Clark and other former members of the Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response and with the WHO Council on the Economics of Health for All. She is a member of the WHO Technical Advisory Group on Vaccine Market Information for Access. A recent Rockefeller Bellagio Centre resident, she is also an Honorary Science Fellow at the VUB, and author on over 50 international journal publications including in the Lancet, BMJ, Nature, and Vaccines.

François Hurstel

CEO of Concerto, a fast-growing group specializing in economic intelligence, strategic communication, and public affairs, with a strong presence in emerging markets. François Hurstel founded Concerto in 2016 to support multinational companies, governments, and institutions on key challenges such as risk management, stakeholder engagement, as well as reputation, image, and influence. Today, Concerto operates in eight countries across Africa, Europe, and the Middle East. As CEO, François drives the group’s strategy and development while remaining actively involved in its growth and with certain strategic clients. Before founding Concerto, he worked at the United Nations, GL Events, and contributed to the creation of Hopscotch’s Africa division. He is a graduate of the London School of Economics (LSE) and Paris-Sorbonne University (Paris IV).

Jean-Michel Beacco

Chief Executive Officer of Institut Louis Bachelier, Associate Professor of Finance at Université Paris-Dauphine. Jean-Michel Beacco graduated from Ecole nationale des Ponts et Chaussées (engineer program) and Stanford Graduate School of Business (executive MBA program). He started his career in 1989 at Caisse des Dépôts et Consignations as an Asset and Liability Manager involved in the first French securitization program for social housing refinancing. From 1992 onwards, he headed the capital market’s Credit Trading, structuring and securitization department at Société Générale (1992-2000), CACIB (-2005) and Natixis (-2009). Since 2009, Jean-Michel Beacco has been Chief Executive Officer of Institut Louis Bachelier, a public-private Paris-based research center in economy and finance unique in Europe. Jean-Michel Beacco is Associate Professor of Finance at Université Paris-Dauphine and President of the Department of Economics at Ecole nationale des Ponts et Chaussées.

Vladislav Inozemtsev

Director of the Center for Post-Industrial Studies in Moscow, Special Advisor to MEMRI’s Russia Media Studies Project in Washington, DC. Dr. Inozemtsev is a Russian economist and political scientist, focusing on global economic issues, development of the knowledge economy in the West and modernization of the Third World nations, with special reference to Russia’s history and current policies. He founded the Center for Post-Industrial Studies in Moscow and has been its Director ever since, combining this activity with teaching at Moscow State University and the Higher School of Economics and numerous fellowships held in the US (Johns Hopkins University and CSIS) and Europe (DGAP in Berlin, Institute of Human Sciences in Vienna and Warsaw Institute of Advanced Studies, among many others). Dr. Inozemtsev served as an Advisor to the Commission on Modernization of the Russian Economy under President Dmitry Medvedev in 2009-2011, as the Chief Aide to Mikhail Prokhorov’s presidential bid in 2012, and as a member of Russia’s ‘Open Government’ in 2013-2014. He left Russia after the start of the war with Ukraine in 2014 and lives in Washington. Dr. Inozemtsev has authored more than 20 books and is a Columnist for the Neue Zürcher Zeitung, NRC Handelsblad, The Independent, Gazeta Wyborcza and La Razon.

Jonathan Tow

Ambassador of Singapore to Türkiye from 2019 to 2023 and former senior diplomat with over 27 years of experience in government. He spearheaded Singapore’s multifaceted engagement with India and South Asia for eight years from 2011 to 2018. He also led negotiations for the India-Singapore Strategic Partnership in 2015 and helped establish Singapore as a co-founding member of the Indian Ocean Conference in 2016. He represented Singapore at the United Nations from 2007 to 2010, focusing on international security and the Non-Aligned Movement. A community volunteer since 2000, he is passionate about fostering inter-faith relations in Singapore’s multi-religious society. In 2019, he was conferred the Public Service Medal (PBM) by the President of Singapore in recognition of his contributions to the community.

Thierry Caboche

Head of International Public Affairs at Ardian since 2022. In this role, he also leads Ardian’s efforts in building relationships with development finance institutions and multilateral organizations. In addition, he contributes to the sourcing of joint ventures and partnerships for the international development of our portfolio companies. Previously, he worked as a diplomat for the French Foreign Office for over 15 years, specializing in the Middle East and multilateral organizations. Thierry has held various Embassy postings across the Middle East and served as the Chief of Staff and Spokesperson of the Ambassador of the French Mission to the United Nations in New York. He is based in Paris.

François-Aïssa Touazi

Senior Managing Partner at Ardian (the leading investment firm, 170 Bn of AUM) and Global Head of International Affairs. He is also Vice President of the French GCC Business councils at MEDEF International, the French largest business organization as well as Head of the Sovereign Wealth Funds Council. Prior to joining Ardian, he had served in the French Foreign Office for 15 years, including as MENA advisor to the Minister of Foreign Affairs. He is Board Member at Siaci Saint Honoré Group (Paris), a leading European insurance brokerage firm and at Dedalus, a world leader in IT software solutions for healthcare. François-Aïssa Touazi is Knight of the Legion of Honor.

Jean-Marc Astorg

Director of Strategy of CNES, the French Space Agency. Jean-Marc ASTORG is an expert in space issues, with an almost 40-year experience at CNES, giving him in-depth knowledge of the space sector in France and worldwide in all areas: launchers, satellites and ground segments. As Director of Strategy at CNES, he is actively involved in adapting CNES and the French space ecosystem to the new environment created by New Space.

Nicolas Terraz

President Exploration and Production and member of the Executive Committee of TotalEnergies since September 1st, 2021. Nicolas Terraz started his career in the French Ministries of Industry (1994-1997) and Public Works and Transportation (1997-2001) and joined TotalEnergies in 2001. After holding positions in France and in Qatar, Nicolas Terraz served as Managing Director of Total E&P Myanmar (2008-2011), Managing Director of Total E&P France (2011-2014), Vice President New Ventures for Exploration and Production (2014-2015) and Managing Director of Total Upstream Companies in Nigeria (2015-2019). In 2019, Nicolas Terraz was appointed Senior Vice President Africa and a member of the management committee of the Exploration & Production segment of TotalEnergies. Born in 1969, Nicolas Terraz is a graduate of the Ecole Polytechnique and the Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées and earned a Master of Science in Technology and Policy from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Could Russia disintegrate?

COMMENT – Expectations that June’s revolt would lead to a regime change were misplaced. Instead, the Russian state will enter a phase of slow decay.

The real stakes in Russia’s war against Ukraine are not only the fate of Ukraine but also the future character and borders of the Russian state. This became particularly evident during the recent mutiny of Wagner group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, which marked the first serious rebellion in President Vladimir Putin’s inner circle and one of many new developments in Russia’s internal situation that could acquire significance as stages in a long-term “disintegration” scenario.

Gapon effect

A forgotten but significant figure in the history of Russia is Georgy Gapon, the Orthodox priest who led the St. Petersburg workers’ protests in January 1905. Gapon was not just a revolutionary and people’s tribune – today we know he played a double game, secretly working with tsarist officials and the secret police. Gapon, like Mr. Prigozhin, hardly resembles the image of a good revolutionary. Yet it was his activity more than any other that led to Bloody Sunday, which sparked the 1905 Revolution and started the collapse of a great empire. At the core of that revolution was the “desacralization of the Tsar” and the ambiguous role played by Gapon himself, who was both a rebel and collaborator. The same may be true of Prigozhin.

The chief result of Mr. Prigozhin’s rebellion was to desacralize Mr. Putin’s rule, even if the march was aborted 200 kilometers away from the capital. Gapon was finally murdered by the secret police, and Mr. Prigozhin was likely to meet a similar end. It is probable that the plane crash in which he reportedly died was arranged by close associates of President Putin. Nevertheless, for Russia, his strange rebellion was a serious test. It exposed the weakness of the Russian president and the authoritarian system he built, revealing hidden fractures in the highest circle of power. In Russian history, waves of change have traditionally been triggered when people perceive the ruler as failing to lead or showing fear – thereby stripping him of his “holy” status. And as Wagner troops approached Moscow, no one was seen rushing to save Mr. Putin. To save face and scare off other potential rebels, the Russian leader had to arrange a theatrical demise for Mr. Prigozhin and his allies. But the desperate gesture could also be interpreted as a sign of weakness by Mr. Putin’s enemies.

[…]

Read the entire article written by Prof. Pawel Kowal on GIS Reports.

How Saudi Arabia’s mediation efforts heap pressure on Russia

COMMENT – Riyadh-hosted talks on Ukraine highlight growing clout of major emerging nations

TOKYO — One and a half years after Russia’s invasion, Ukraine is struggling to achieve its goals in the much-vaunted counteroffensive. Ukrainian forces along the front line are having a hard time punching through resilient enemy lines.

Yet recent peace talks in Saudi Arabia, held among senior officials from about 40 economies, offered a ray of hope for achieving a cease-fire.

The talks followed the first such meeting hosted by Denmark in Copenhagen in June. In response to Saudi Arabia’s invitations, national security advisers and other officials of some 40 countries and regions, including the Group of Seven major industrial nations as well as emerging and developing countries, gathered in the Red Sea coastal city of Jeddah.

Saudi Arabia has friendly ties with Russia, a fellow oil producer, and maintains a neutral position in the Ukraine war. A far cry from a democracy, the monarchy is often criticized for its dismal human rights records.

Many pundits were skeptical about the peace talks hosted by the country. But the conference proved unexpectedly productive, though no concrete blueprint for peace has been hashed out.

The number of participants itself was a great achievement as the previous talks in Denmark attracted only a dozen or so countries and regions. China’s presence this time also made a big difference. Beijing, Moscow’s principal ally, declined an invitation to the previous talks, apparently out of concern for damaging ties with Russia.

Saudi Arabia strongly urged China to attend the conference through behind-the-scenes lobbying, a Western diplomat familiar with the matter said. Riyadh tried its best to make the forum attractive to Beijing by taking some unusual steps. For example, while representatives of all other nations were seated in alphabetical order, China was given a place next to the chair.

Saudi Arabia invited Ukraine but not Russia. Irked by the move, Moscow blasted the talks. “No meetings on the Ukraine crisis add any value without Russia’s participation or regard for its interests,” said Maria Zakharova, the spokeswoman of Russia’s Foreign Ministry.

[…]

Read the entire comment written by Hiroyuki Akita on NikkeiAsia.

The Global Order’s Triple Policy Challenge

ARTICLE – With sovereign debt at record levels and extreme weather events becoming more frequent and intense, policymakers must find a way to sustain economic growth, ensure financial stability, and mobilize the necessary resources to combat climate change. Achieving this requires nothing less than a new economic paradigm.

WASHINGTON, DC – Three upcoming international gatherings – the G20 Leaders’ Summit in September, the International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meetings in October, and the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) in the United Arab Emirates in November – will focus on devising strategies to sustain global growth and tame inflation. With public and private debt at record levels, political leaders face the monumental task of maintaining financial stability while simultaneously allocating resources to address critical challenges such as global warming and pandemic preparation.

With increasingly frequent and more intense extreme weather events underscoring the urgent need for decisive action, much of the attention will rightly be on the debt crisis currently engulfing much of the developing world. Given that many middle- and low-income countries lack the necessary resources to invest in adaptation and mitigation measures, global leaders will undoubtedly be pressured to narrow the climate-finance gap.

But the collapse of the traditional Paris Club-based renegotiation process and the ongoing failure of the G20’s Common Framework for Debt Treatments have hindered efforts to establish a more efficient policy framework to reduce low- and middle-income countries’ debt burdens. Moreover, developing countries’ debt woes have been exacerbated by the sharp increase in global interest rates and the decrease in private capital inflows to emerging-market economies.

Several recent initiatives seek to tackle the triple challenge of sustaining economic growth, ensuring financial stability, and mobilizing the resources needed to address global threats like climate change. All of them, including the roadmap outlined by policymakers at the June Summit for a New Global Financing Pact in Paris and the new G20 report on reforming the multilateral development bank system, acknowledge that reviving private capital inflows into low- and middle-income countries is a prerequisite for success.

[…]

Read the full article written by John Lipsky on Project Syndicate.

« L’Iran cherche à renouer avec l’Occident »

CHRONIQUE – Sans le proclamer publiquement, mais en le faisant savoir par divers chemins discrets, les mollahs souhaitent désormais négocier un grand arrangement avec l’Amérique.

La dynamique de la réconciliation irano-saoudienne se poursuit. Le 18 août 2023, le ministre iranien des Affaires étrangères a été chaleureusement reçu à Djedda par le prince héritier saoudien Mohammed Ben Salman (MBS). Au Moyen-Orient, la hache de guerre entre chiites et sunnites semble enterrée, du moins provisoirement.

Dans ce dialogue entre persans et arabes, dont les schémas mentaux sont très différents, des incompréhensions et des malentendus subsistent fatalement. Les Iraniens souhaiteraient par exemple que le royaume s’implique davantage pour une solution politique au Yémen, quitte à ce qu’il convoque un sommet régional, où houthistes chiites et sudistes sunnites négocieraient sous l’œil de leurs voisins arabes et perse. Mais des difficultés sporadiques sur le dossier du Yémen (où le cessez-le-feu tient depuis un an et demi) sont un arbre qui ne devrait pas cacher la forêt.

[…]

Lisez la chronique complète de Renaud Girard sur Figaro Vox.

Washington, Tokyo et Séoul font bloc face à la Chine et la Corée du Nord

ARTICLE – Face à la Chine et la Corée du Nord, Joe Biden a voulu formaliser, vendredi à Camp David, une entente sécuritaire avec ses homologues japonais et sud-coréen, profitant de leur rapprochement récent.

 

Décidée au printemps dernier lors du G7 à Hiroshima, la rencontre au sommet organisée vendredi à Camp David par Joe Biden avec le président de Corée du Sud et le Premier ministre japonais a conforté une relation trilatérale devenue pour chacun indispensable, face aux menaces sécuritaires et économiques posées par la Chine et la Corée du Nord.

La rencontre – premier sommet entre les trois dirigeants, et la première invitation à Camp David faite à des leaders étrangers par Joe Biden – s’est concrétisée par des mesures sécuritaires, économiques et formalise un rapprochement que Washington espère gravé dans le marbre.

Réchauffement ostensible

Concrètement, ils ont décidé d’un sommet trilatéral annuel et ont promis de se consulter sur tous « les défis, provocations et menaces qui affectent nos intérêts collectifs et notre sécurité ». Ils vont mettre en place une liaison de communication d’urgence entre les trois exécutifs, partager davantage d’intelligence militaire, multiplier les exercices militaires communs ou encore partager les données en temps réels sur les tirs de missile de la Corée du Nord. Ils se sont également accordés sur des mécanismes d’alerte pour mieux contrôler la sécurité des chaînes d’approvisionnement dans la région.

« Il y a eu un réchauffement ostensible des relations entre la Corée du Sud et le Japon depuis l’élection du Président Yoon et en particulier depuis le printemps. Les Américains veulent capitaliser là-dessus. Ils ont fait des efforts en coulisses pour les rapprocher discrètement depuis des années », note Jean-Yves Colin, expert Asie du Nord du Asia Centre.

Depuis quelques mois, les signes d’ouverture sont manifestes. Ils ont été initiés par le président Yoon Suk-yeol, qui a décidé de régler les différends historiques avec Tokyo. En commençant par dédommager les travailleurs coréens qui avaient été forcés de travailler pour le Japon à l’époque de la colonisation.

De son côté, le Japon a levé des restrictions à l’export de matériaux pour les semi-conducteurs vers la Corée du Sud. Le président sud-coréen s’est rendu à Tokyo, tandis que le Premier ministre japonais a été accueilli à Séoul. Et lors des célébrations en mémoire de la fin de l’époque coloniale japonaise, le 18 août, le président sud-coréen a insisté longuement sur le partage de valeurs communes avec le Japon.

[…]

Retrouvez l’article complet écrit par Virginie Robert dans Les Echos.

In Europe, Few Even Want to Talk About Trump Part 2

ARTICLE –The prospect of a second presidential term for Donald J. Trump has many officials worried about alliance cohesion, NATO and the war in Ukraine.

For most European governments, it is almost too upsetting to think about, let alone debate in public. But the prospect that Donald J. Trump could win the Republican nomination for the presidency and return to the White House is a prime topic of private discussion.

“It’s slightly terrifying, it’s fair to say,” said Steven Everts, a European Union diplomat who is soon to become the director of the European Union Institute for Security Studies. “We were relieved by President Biden and his response to Ukraine,” Mr. Everts said, “but now we’re forced to confront the Trump question again.”

Given the enormous role the United States plays in European security,” he added, “we now have to think again about what this means for our own politics, for European defense and for Ukraine itself.”

The talk is intensifying as Mr. Trump, despite the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol, his attempt to overturn the results of the 2020 election and his various indictments, is running well ahead of his rivals for the Republican presidential nomination and is neck-and-neck with President Biden in early opinion polls.

In general, Central Europeans are more convinced that they can manage a second Trump presidency, but Western Europeans are dreading the prospect, especially in Germany, about which Mr. Trump seems to feel significant antipathy.

During his presidency, Mr. Trump threatened to pull out of NATO and withheld aid to Ukraine as it struggled with a Russian-backed insurgency, the subject of his first impeachment. He ordered the withdrawal of thousands of American troops from Germany, a move later overturned by Mr. Biden, and spoke with admiration of President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia.

Today, with Europe and Russia locked in conflict over Ukraine, and Mr. Putin making veiled threats about nuclear weapons and a wider war, the question of American commitment takes on even greater importance. Mr. Trump recently said that he would end the war in a day, presumably by forcing Ukraine to make territorial concessions.

A second Trump term “would be different from the first, and much worse,” said Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff, a former German government official who is now with the German Marshall Fund in Berlin. “Trump has experience now and knows what levers to pull, and he’s angry,” he said.

[…]

Read the full article written by Steven Erlanger on The New York Times.

The IRA challenges the European climate model

ARTICLE – The United States’ rejection of the Kyoto Agreement in 2001 and President Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accords in 2020 gave many Europeans a sense of superiority to the United States with regard to climate change. But now, Europeans are starting to realize their leadership in the energy transition is not as secure as previously believed. They are seeing the profound competition posed by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)—and the economic forces it unleashes.

The IRA as a response to climate change differs fundamentally from the European Union (EU)’s Green Deal. The EU quantifies numerous climate targets to set strict limits on greenhouse gas emissions. But the United States aims to make new technologies that mitigate climate change more competitive than conventional ones.

In the IRA, tax credits are the primary instrument of climate policy. Renewables and climate-friendly technologies are the main beneficiaries of the IRA, but they are stimulated through market incentives, without paternalism, managerialism, or micromanagement.

While the EU holds a binding, bureaucratic grip on the regulation of climate technology, the IRA harnesses creative market power in support of both renewables and other energy sources. In striving to turbocharge its economy by decarbonizing the energy sector, the United States could achieve climate neutrality before Europe.

In the IRA, climate neutrality takes precedence. Unlike in Europe, the United States does not pick winners and losers among competing climate technologies. The legislation’s success largely stems from the wide range of technologies that receive tax credits.

These credits do not narrow America’s energy supply base. Nuclear and hydrogen are both included in the legislative scope of the IRA. For instance, the IRA facilitates the carbon-neutral production of blue hydrogen, from natural gas with carbon capture and storage technology (CCS). Green hydrogen—produced from renewables—benefits most from the IRA’s tax code, but this does not come at the expense of CCS and blue hydrogen, which also receive tax credits in the legislation.

In contrast to the United States, subsidies persist as the main form of European energy policy, often creating inefficiency in the strive for climate neutrality. For example, Germany‘s Renewable Energy Sources Act, passed in 2000, created immense subsidies but left ambivalent climate results after two decades.

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Read the full article written by Dr. Friedbert Pflüger on Atlantic Council.